WWhy we don't crack
The house usually wins

What's a collector booster box really worth when you crack it?

Pick any Magic: The Gathering set. We simulate opening its collector boosters using Wizards' published collation, price every card at live TCGplayer rates, and show the expected value, the odds of breaking even, and exactly how the math favors keeping it sealed.

Sets analyzed
45
established collector sets
Boxes that lose money to crack
45
of 45
Average return when cracked
−50%
Worst offender
LTR-SE
−78%

Crack-it-open leaderboard

Return · worst first
#
1The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition)LTR-SE · 2023$6,500$1,420−78%2Phyrexia: All Will Be OneONE · 2023$975$228−77%3Throne of EldraineELD · 2019$420$123−71%4Duskmourn: House of HorrorDSK · 2024$755$230−70%5Innistrad: Crimson VowVOW · 2021$247$76.50−69%6Innistrad: Midnight HuntMID · 2021$193$68.38−64%7BloomburrowBLB · 2024$950$352−63%8The Lost Caverns of IxalanLCI · 2023$970$367−62%9March of the MachineMOM · 2023$725$292−60%10Lorwyn EclipsedECL · 2026$388$157−60%11AetherdriftDFT · 2025$260$108−59%12Theros Beyond DeathTHB · 2020$350$146−58%13Innistrad RemasteredINR · 2025$400$171−57%14The Brothers' WarBRO · 2022$570$248−57%15Wilds of EldraineWOE · 2023$770$344−55%16Core Set 2021M21 · 2020$400$186−54%17Kamigawa: Neon DynastyNEO · 2022$500$239−52%18FoundationsFDN · 2024$746$357−52%19Adventures in the Forgotten RealmsAFR · 2021$299$143−52%20Teenage Mutant Ninja TurtlesTMT · 2026$430$207−52%21Ravnica RemasteredRVR · 2024$986$478−52%22Dominaria UnitedDMU · 2022$309$152−51%23Marvel's Spider-ManSPM · 2025$351$180−49%24Streets of New CapennaSNC · 2022$238$123−48%25Commander LegendsCMR · 2020$700$365−48%26Murders at Karlov ManorMKM · 2024$342$179−48%27Outlaws of Thunder JunctionOTJ · 2024$399$214−46%28Ikoria: Lair of BehemothsIKO · 2020$689$378−45%29Assassin's CreedACR · 2024$393$217−45%30Edge of EternitiesEOE · 2025$577$320−44%31KaldheimKHM · 2021$305$176−42%32Final FantasyFIN · 2025$1,300$753−42%33March of the Machine: The AftermathMAT · 2023$220$129−42%34The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earthLTR · 2023$1,770$1,038−41%35Commander MastersCMM · 2023$490$289−41%36Zendikar RisingZNR · 2020$361$218−40%37Secrets of StrixhavenSOS · 2026$475$291−39%38Strixhaven: School of MagesSTX · 2021$628$385−39%39Dominaria RemasteredDMR · 2023$489$306−38%40Tarkir: DragonstormTDM · 2025$419$277−34%41Modern Horizons 3MH3 · 2024$688$464−33%42Double Masters 20222X2 · 2022$399$275−31%43Modern Horizons 2MH2 · 2021$538$372−31%44Avatar: The Last AirbenderTLA · 2025$379$302−20%45Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's GateCLB · 2022$550$440−20%

“EV cracked” is the expected total card value from opening every pack in the box, with each card valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket). “Return” compares that to the current sealed box price (TCG low). Click any set for a full breakdown and a live pack simulator.

Pre-order & just released

prices provisional · not ranked
•Marvel Super HeroesJust releasedMSH · 2026$471$484+3%

These sets are unreleased or only days old. TCGplayer single prices are thin and speculative right now and almost always fall after release, so their cracked EV is overstated — we leave them out of the ranking and the stats above.