What's a collector booster box really worth when you crack it?
Pick any Magic: The Gathering set. We simulate opening its collector boosters using Wizards' published collation, price every card at live TCGplayer rates, and show the expected value, the odds of breaking even, and exactly how the math favors keeping it sealed.
Crack-it-open leaderboard
Return · worst first“EV” is the expected total card value from opening every pack in the box, with each card valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket). “Median” is the middle simulated box — half of boxes fall below this, so it's the more honest “typical experience” number. “% Profit” is the share of simulated boxes that clear the sealed box cost. “% > EV” is the share that beat the mean; when it drops well below 50% you're looking at a chase-pull tail (a few lottery hits carrying the average). “Return” compares EV to the current sealed box price (TCG low). Click any set for a full breakdown and a live pack simulator.
Biggest losers if you crack
Expected loss per box (sealed price minus cracked EV). These are the sets where keeping it sealed hurts the least compared to opening.
| Set | Box | EV cracked | Expected loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition)LTR-SE | $7,050 | $1,776 | $5,274 |
| 2The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earthLTR | $2,088 | $569 | $1,519 |
| 3Phyrexia: All Will Be OneONE | $1,200 | $260 | $940 |
| 4BloomburrowBLB | $1,295 | $381 | $914 |
| 5The Lost Caverns of IxalanLCI | $1,298 | $401 | $897 |
| 6Final FantasyFIN | $1,649 | $874 | $775 |
| 7Ravnica RemasteredRVR | $1,250 | $487 | $762 |
| 8The Brothers' WarBRO | $841 | $239 | $602 |