The house usually wins

What's a collector booster box really worth when you crack it?

Pick any Magic: The Gathering set. We simulate opening its collector boosters using Wizards' published collation, price every card at live TCGplayer rates, and show the expected value, the odds of breaking even, and exactly how the math favors keeping it sealed.

Sets analyzed
46
established collector sets
Boxes that lose money to crack
46
of 46
Average return when cracked
−54%
Worst offender
ONE
−76%

Pre-order & release day

prices provisional · not ranked

Pre-order listings and release-day singles are speculative; prices usually crash once boxes hit shelves. We leave these sets out of the ranking until the day after launch.

Crack-it-open leaderboard

Return · worst first
#
1Phyrexia: All Will Be OneONE · 2023$1,026$251−76%2Innistrad: Crimson VowVOW · 2021$315$79.02−75%3The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition)LTR-SE · 2023$6,456$1,702−74%4Throne of EldraineELD · 2019$433$126−71%5Innistrad: Midnight HuntMID · 2021$250$73.03−71%6BloomburrowBLB · 2024$1,149$362−69%7The Brothers' WarBRO · 2022$857$273−68%8The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earthLTR · 2023$1,830$594−68%9Duskmourn: House of HorrorDSK · 2024$722$237−67%10The Lost Caverns of IxalanLCI · 2023$1,178$391−67%11Adventures in the Forgotten RealmsAFR · 2021$435$148−66%12March of the MachineMOM · 2023$881$320−64%13Core Set 2021M21 · 2020$503$186−63%14Kamigawa: Neon DynastyNEO · 2022$655$243−63%15Ravnica RemasteredRVR · 2024$1,250$479−62%16Wilds of EldraineWOE · 2023$883$341−61%17Theros Beyond DeathTHB · 2020$400$163−59%18FoundationsFDN · 2024$900$379−58%19AetherdriftDFT · 2025$315$134−57%20Streets of New CapennaSNC · 2022$300$128−57%21Dominaria UnitedDMU · 2022$365$162−55%22Teenage Mutant Ninja TurtlesTMT · 2026$447$200−55%23Innistrad RemasteredINR · 2025$497$224−55%24KaldheimKHM · 2021$399$180−55%25Commander LegendsCMR · 2020$793$364−54%26Secrets of StrixhavenSOS · 2026$495$233−53%27Edge of EternitiesEOE · 2025$700$333−52%28Outlaws of Thunder JunctionOTJ · 2024$453$219−52%29March of the Machine: The AftermathMAT · 2023$295$143−51%30Zendikar RisingZNR · 2020$458$225−51%31Assassin's CreedACR · 2024$598$301−50%32Final FantasyFIN · 2025$1,625$830−49%33Marvel's Spider-ManSPM · 2025$402$213−47%34Ikoria: Lair of BehemothsIKO · 2020$699$379−46%35Lorwyn EclipsedECL · 2026$409$230−44%36Dominaria RemasteredDMR · 2023$550$325−41%37Commander MastersCMM · 2023$500$295−41%38Strixhaven: School of MagesSTX · 2021$627$374−40%39Murders at Karlov ManorMKM · 2024$398$247−38%40Double Masters 20222X2 · 2022$440$279−37%41Avatar: The Last AirbenderTLA · 2025$465$303−35%42Tarkir: DragonstormTDM · 2025$490$322−34%43Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's GateCLB · 2022$620$426−31%44Modern Horizons 2MH2 · 2021$619$426−31%45Marvel Super HeroesMSH · 2026$465$328−29%46Modern Horizons 3MH3 · 2024$829$604−27%

“EV cracked” is the expected total card value from opening every pack in the box, with each card valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket). “Return” compares that to the current sealed box price (TCG low). Click any set for a full breakdown and a live pack simulator.

Biggest losers if you crack

Expected loss per box (sealed price minus cracked EV). These are the sets where keeping it sealed hurts the least compared to opening.