Secrets of Strixhaven
Chase card spotlight
Force of Will
Showcase
- Single price
- $971
- Share of box EV
- 6.3%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 53 (1.9% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 37 boxes ($17,575)
Chasing Force of Will by cracking boxes means spending about $17,575for a 50/50 shot — vs $971 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 40.13 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 27.80 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 4.06 cards | 98.3% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −39%
- Net EV per box
- −$184
- Chance to break even
- 10%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $132
- Typical
- $232
- Average (EV)
- $291
- Lucky (90%)
- $480
The average box ($291) is $58.21 above a typical box ($232) — 20%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $475
- Standalone pack listing
- $39.00
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $39.58
- EV per pack
- $24.22
- $291 / box
- Return opening box
- −39%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −38%
Standalone packs list at $39.00 vs $39.58 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $24.22/pack (−38% return either way).
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $291 | $290(-$0.58) |
| Variance | 44849 | 44307(-1.2%) |
| Std deviation | $212 | $210 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $971
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 53 (1.9% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 37
- Cost of those boxes
- $17,575
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 158
- Cost at 95%
- $75,050
You'd spend about $17,575 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Force of Will, vs $971 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 31-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 10.2%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 31.8%
- Typical box (median)
- $232
- Average box (EV)
- $290
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $132
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $480
- God box (99th pct)
- $1,207
Roughly 10% of boxes return more than the $475 you paid. You'd need to open about 28 boxes (~$13,300) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $232) is $58.21 below the $291 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $291 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $291 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Force of Will#149 | Showcase | $971 | 0.019 | 6.3% | $18.34 |
| Vampiric Tutor#165 | Showcase | $690 | 0.019 | 4.5% | $13.04 |
| Force of Will#19 | Showcase | $91.03 | 0.123 | 3.9% | $11.20 |
| Force of Will#84 | Showcase | $169 | 0.062 | 3.6% | $10.40 |
| Jeska's Will#174 | Showcase | $518 | 0.019 | 3.4% | $9.78 |
| Vampiric Tutor#35 | Showcase | $68.62 | 0.123 | 2.9% | $8.45 |
| Cyclonic Rift#144 | Showcase | $407 | 0.019 | 2.6% | $7.69 |
| Vampiric Tutor#100 | Showcase | $121 | 0.062 | 2.6% | $7.42 |
| Jeska's Will#44 | Showcase | $56.99 | 0.123 | 2.4% | $7.01 |
| Cyclonic Rift#79 | Showcase | $89.54 | 0.062 | 1.9% | $5.51 |
| Jeska's Will#109 | Showcase | $84.90 | 0.062 | 1.8% | $5.22 |
| Ad Nauseam#155 | Showcase | $272 | 0.019 | 1.8% | $5.15 |
| Crop Rotation#181 | Showcase | $134 | 0.038 | 1.7% | $5.05 |
| Flusterstorm#148 | Showcase | $238 | 0.019 | 1.6% | $4.51 |
| Cyclonic Rift#14 | Showcase | $34.99 | 0.123 | 1.5% | $4.31 |
| Veil of Summer#190 | Showcase | $75.99 | 0.038 | 1.0% | $2.87 |
| Brain Freeze#143 | Showcase | $74.00 | 0.038 | 1.0% | $2.80 |
| Emeritus of Woe // Demonic Tutor#324 | Extended art | $16.50 | 0.161 | 0.9% | $2.66 |
| Pyretic Ritual#176 | Showcase | $69.99 | 0.038 | 0.9% | $2.65 |
| Akroma's Will#1 | Showcase | $21.24 | 0.123 | 0.9% | $2.61 |
| Preordain#151 | Showcase | $66.00 | 0.038 | 0.9% | $2.49 |
| Culling the Weak#157 | Showcase | $64.99 | 0.038 | 0.8% | $2.46 |
| Witherbloom, the Balancer#288 | Borderless | $14.95 | 0.161 | 0.8% | $2.41 |
| Awaken the Woods#179 | Showcase | $125 | 0.019 | 0.8% | $2.36 |
| Akroma's Will#131 | Showcase | $117 | 0.019 | 0.8% | $2.21 |
| Germination Practicum#296 | Showcase | $12.73 | 0.161 | 0.7% | $2.05 |
| Awaken the Woods#49 | Showcase | $16.25 | 0.123 | 0.7% | $2.00 |
| Ad Nauseam#90 | Showcase | $32.00 | 0.062 | 0.7% | $1.97 |
| Crop Rotation#116 | Showcase | $15.90 | 0.123 | 0.7% | $1.96 |
| Improvisation Capstone#294 | Showcase | $12.00 | 0.161 | 0.7% | $1.94 |
| Erode#310 | Extended art | $6.00 | 0.323 | 0.7% | $1.94 |
| Angel's Grace#132 | Showcase | $48.51 | 0.038 | 0.6% | $1.83 |
| Triumph of the Hordes#59 | Showcase | $14.60 | 0.123 | 0.6% | $1.80 |
| Stock Up#154 | Showcase | $37.14 | 0.048 | 0.6% | $1.78 |
| Flashback#333 | Extended art | $5.50 | 0.323 | 0.6% | $1.77 |