Outlaws of Thunder Junction
Chase card spotlight
Mana Drain
Showcase
- Single price
- $52.41
- Share of box EV
- 5.1%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 5 (18.6% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 4 boxes ($1,596)
Chasing Mana Drain by cracking boxes means spending about $1,596for a 50/50 shot — vs $52.41 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 43.86 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 25.62 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 2.37 cards | 90.6% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.12 cards | 10.9% | 1 in 9 |
| Raised foil | 0.04 cards | 3.8% | 1 in 26 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −46%
- Net EV per box
- −$185
- Chance to break even
- 4%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $120
- Typical
- $199
- Average (EV)
- $214
- Lucky (90%)
- $325
The average box ($214) is $14.91 above a typical box ($199) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $399
- Standalone pack listing
- $42.00
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $33.25
- EV per pack
- $17.81
- $214 / box
- Return opening box
- −46%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −58%
The box is the better deal per pack ($33.25 vs $42.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −46% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $214 | $213(-$0.35) |
| Variance | 7216 | 7177(-0.5%) |
| Std deviation | $84.95 | $84.72 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $52.41
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 5 (18.6% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 4
- Cost of those boxes
- $1,596
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 13
- Cost at 95%
- $5,187
You'd spend about $1,596 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mana Drain, vs $52.41 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 3.6%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 42.5%
- Typical box (median)
- $199
- Average box (EV)
- $213
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $120
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $325
- God box (99th pct)
- $478
Roughly 4% of boxes return more than the $399 you paid. You'd need to open about 83 boxes (~$33,117) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $199) is $14.91 below the $214 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $214 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $214 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mana Drain#11 | Showcase | $52.41 | 0.206 | 5.1% | $10.81 |
| Vaultborn Tyrant#50 | Showcase | $116 | 0.083 | 4.5% | $9.61 |
| Simulacrum Synthesizer#36 | Showcase | $110 | 0.083 | 4.3% | $9.11 |
| Bristly Bill, Spine Sower#338 | Extended art | $83.46 | 0.106 | 4.1% | $8.84 |
| Fomori Vault#59 | Showcase | $79.69 | 0.083 | 3.1% | $6.60 |
| Scapeshift#34 | Borderless | $142 | 0.046 | 3.1% | $6.58 |
| Generous Plunderer#41 | Showcase | $67.59 | 0.083 | 2.6% | $5.60 |
| Sword of Wealth and Power#56 | Showcase | $63.47 | 0.083 | 2.5% | $5.26 |
| Reanimate#18 | Showcase | $12.69 | 0.413 | 2.4% | $5.24 |
| Terror of the Peaks#337 | Extended art | $45.77 | 0.106 | 2.3% | $4.85 |
| Prismatic Vista#38 | Borderless | $98.94 | 0.046 | 2.1% | $4.58 |
| Vaultborn Tyrant#85 | Extended art | $45.00 | 0.083 | 1.7% | $3.73 |
| Simulacrum Synthesizer#71 | Extended art | $45.00 | 0.083 | 1.7% | $3.73 |
| Grand Abolisher#32 | Showcase | $41.10 | 0.083 | 1.6% | $3.40 |
| Molten Duplication#44 | Showcase | $40.85 | 0.083 | 1.6% | $3.38 |
| Mindbreak Trap#12 | Showcase | $16.00 | 0.206 | 1.5% | $3.30 |
| Bristly Bill, Spine Sower#157 | — | $43.70 | 0.071 | 1.4% | $3.08 |
| Morbid Opportunist#32 | Borderless | $66.53 | 0.046 | 1.4% | $3.08 |
| Sword of Wealth and Power#91 | Extended art | $36.99 | 0.083 | 1.4% | $3.06 |
| Stoneforge Mystic#29 | Borderless | $64.69 | 0.046 | 1.4% | $2.99 |
| Molten Duplication#79 | Extended art | $33.99 | 0.083 | 1.3% | $2.82 |
| Commandeer#9 | Showcase | $6.47 | 0.413 | 1.2% | $2.67 |
| Imp's Mischief#15 | Showcase | $6.29 | 0.413 | 1.2% | $2.59 |
| Annie Joins Up#347 | Extended art | $11.99 | 0.212 | 1.2% | $2.54 |
| Orochi Soul-Reaver#58 | Extended art | $7.90 | 0.316 | 1.2% | $2.49 |
| Lost Jitte#53 | Showcase | $29.10 | 0.083 | 1.1% | $2.41 |
| Contagion Engine#61 | Showcase | $11.65 | 0.206 | 1.1% | $2.40 |
| Vaultborn Tyrant#20 | — | $32.73 | 0.071 | 1.1% | $2.31 |
| Mana Drain#67 | Textured | $291 | 7.71e-3 | 1.0% | $2.24 |
| Torpor Orb#57 | Showcase | $27.00 | 0.083 | 1.0% | $2.24 |
| Terror of the Peaks#149 | — | $30.61 | 0.071 | 1.0% | $2.16 |
| Insatiable Avarice#325 | Extended art | $10.13 | 0.212 | 1.0% | $2.15 |
| Kambal, Profiteering Mayor#353 | Extended art | $9.86 | 0.212 | 1.0% | $2.09 |
| Generous Plunderer#76 | Extended art | $25.04 | 0.083 | 1.0% | $2.07 |
| Three Steps Ahead#323 | Extended art | $9.72 | 0.212 | 1.0% | $2.06 |