Zendikar Rising
Chase card spotlight
Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn
Extended art
- Single price
- $40.00
- Share of box EV
- 5.4%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (25.4% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 3 boxes ($1,083)
Chasing Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn by cracking boxes means spending about $1,083for a 50/50 shot — vs $40.00 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 110.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 43.24 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 19.91 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 6.85 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −40%
- Net EV per box
- −$143
- Chance to break even
- 5%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $123
- Typical
- $207
- Average (EV)
- $218
- Lucky (90%)
- $325
The average box ($218) is $10.37 above a typical box ($207) — 5%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $361
- Standalone pack listing
- $80.00
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $30.08
- EV per pack
- $18.13
- $218 / box
- Return opening box
- −40%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −77%
The box is the better deal per pack ($30.08 vs $80.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −40% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $218 | $217(-$0.15) |
| Variance | 6395 | 6382(-0.2%) |
| Std deviation | $79.97 | $79.89 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $40.00
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (25.4% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 3
- Cost of those boxes
- $1,083
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 9
- Cost at 95%
- $3,249
You'd spend about $1,083 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn, vs $40.00 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 29-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 5.2%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 45.0%
- Typical box (median)
- $207
- Average box (EV)
- $217
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $123
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $325
- God box (99th pct)
- $444
Roughly 5% of boxes return more than the $361 you paid. You'd need to open about 57 boxes (~$20,576) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $207) is $10.37 below the $218 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $218 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $218 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn#333 | Extended art | $40.00 | 0.293 | 5.4% | $11.71 |
| Ancient Tomb#21 | — | $153 | 0.067 | 4.7% | $10.23 |
| Agadeem's Awakening // Agadeem, the Undercrypt#336 | Extended art | $28.00 | 0.293 | 3.8% | $8.20 |
| Moraug, Fury of Akoum#300 | Showcase | $16.13 | 0.503 | 3.7% | $8.12 |
| Scute Swarm#308 | Showcase | $8.50 | 0.890 | 3.5% | $7.57 |
| Ashaya, Soul of the Wild#358 | Extended art | $21.85 | 0.293 | 2.9% | $6.40 |
| Cavern of Souls#22 | — | $84.75 | 0.067 | 2.6% | $5.65 |
| Polluted Delta#2 | — | $81.17 | 0.067 | 2.5% | $5.41 |
| Riverglide Pathway // Lavaglide Pathway#289 | Borderless | $5.99 | 0.890 | 2.5% | $5.33 |
| Lotus Cobra#307 | Showcase | $5.81 | 0.890 | 2.4% | $5.17 |
| Valakut Awakening // Valakut Stoneforge#355 | Extended art | $16.25 | 0.293 | 2.2% | $4.76 |
| Verdant Catacombs#8 | — | $70.78 | 0.067 | 2.2% | $4.72 |
| Flooded Strand#1 | — | $70.08 | 0.067 | 2.1% | $4.67 |
| Misty Rainforest#10 | — | $68.95 | 0.067 | 2.1% | $4.60 |
| Marsh Flats#6 | — | $65.60 | 0.067 | 2.0% | $4.37 |
| Bloodstained Mire#3 | — | $64.89 | 0.067 | 2.0% | $4.33 |
| Brightclimb Pathway // Grimclimb Pathway#285 | Borderless | $4.77 | 0.890 | 2.0% | $4.25 |
| Prismatic Vista#27 | — | $62.66 | 0.067 | 1.9% | $4.18 |
| Malakir Rebirth // Malakir Mire#111 | — | $13.76 | 0.300 | 1.9% | $4.13 |
| Windswept Heath#5 | — | $61.71 | 0.067 | 1.9% | $4.11 |
| Ancient Greenwarden#357 | Extended art | $14.00 | 0.293 | 1.9% | $4.10 |
| Scalding Tarn#7 | — | $60.16 | 0.067 | 1.8% | $4.01 |
| Arid Mesa#9 | — | $58.43 | 0.067 | 1.8% | $3.90 |
| Morphic Pool#17 | — | $53.89 | 0.067 | 1.7% | $3.59 |
| Wooded Foothills#4 | — | $53.54 | 0.067 | 1.6% | $3.57 |
| Clearwater Pathway // Murkwater Pathway#286 | Borderless | $4.00 | 0.890 | 1.6% | $3.56 |
| Valakut Exploration#303 | Showcase | $3.56 | 0.890 | 1.5% | $3.17 |
| Cragcrown Pathway // Timbercrown Pathway#287 | Borderless | $3.49 | 0.890 | 1.4% | $3.11 |
| Felidar Retreat#292 | Showcase | $3.33 | 0.890 | 1.4% | $2.97 |
| Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn#76 | — | $36.00 | 0.081 | 1.3% | $2.92 |
| Angel of Destiny#314 | Extended art | $9.95 | 0.293 | 1.3% | $2.91 |
| Branchloft Pathway // Boulderloft Pathway#284 | Borderless | $3.26 | 0.890 | 1.3% | $2.90 |
| Luxury Suite#18 | — | $42.76 | 0.067 | 1.3% | $2.85 |
| Needleverge Pathway // Pillarverge Pathway#288 | Borderless | $3.00 | 0.890 | 1.2% | $2.67 |
| Shatterskull Smashing // Shatterskull, the Hammer Pass#354 | Extended art | $9.00 | 0.293 | 1.2% | $2.63 |