Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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ZNR·Released Sep 25, 2020·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Zendikar Rising collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$458
$38.17/pack
Expected value
$225
$18.72/pack
Net EV
−$233
Break-even
1.3%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −51%

Ancient Tomb

$159 · 1 in 16 · 6% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$124
$213
$225
$342
$458
Floor (10%)
$124
Typical
$213
Average (EV)
$225
Lucky (90%)
$342
Box price
$458

The average box ($225) is $11.49 above a typical box ($213) — 5%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

99%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

1%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $458
EV $225
Median $213
$0$125$250$375$500$625$750

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Zendikar Rising collector boosterbox TCG low $458, expected value $225, median box $213, 1% break-even, −51% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Zendikar Rising collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Zendikar Rising collector booster box is $225 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $213.
What are the odds of breaking even on Zendikar Rising collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated Zendikar Rising collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($458). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Zendikar Rising sealed?
Money pit. EV is $225 vs sealed $458 (−51% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$15.95 (7.6%) · Box +$126 (37.8%) over 3m · ROI −13.7%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$458
Standalone pack listing
$80.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$38.17
EV per pack
$18.72
$225 / box
Return opening box
−51%
Return buying packs at listing
−77%

The box is the better deal per pack ($38.17 vs $80.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −51% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$41.00
Pull any copy
1 in 4 (25.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
3
Cost of those boxes
$1,374
Boxes for 95% chance
9
Cost at 95%
$4,122

You'd spend about $1,374 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn, vs $41.00 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard110.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase43.24 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art19.91 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless6.85 cards99.9%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference