BRO·Released Nov 18, 2022·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Brothers' War collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$126
$209
$273
$527
$857
Floor (10%)
$126
Typical
$209
Average (EV)
$273
Lucky (90%)
$527
Box price
$857
The average box ($273) is $64.33 above a typical box ($209) — 24%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $857
EV $273
Median $209
$0$233$467$700$933$1,167$1,400
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
The Brothers' War collector boosterbox TCG low $857, expected value $273, median box $209, 1% break-even, −68% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Brothers' War collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Brothers' War collector booster box is $273 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $209.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Brothers' War collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated The Brothers' War collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($857). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Brothers' War sealed?
Money pit. EV is $273 vs sealed $857 (−68% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$30.38 (12.5%) · Box +$352 (69.6%) over 3m · ROI −16.2%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$857
Standalone pack listing
$69.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$71.39
EV per pack
$22.74
$273 / box
Return opening box
−68%
Return buying packs at listing
−68%
Standalone packs list at $69.99 vs $71.39 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $22.74/pack (−68% return either way).
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$470
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (9.6% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$5,997
Boxes for 95% chance
29
Cost at 95%
$24,844
You'd spend about $5,997 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Starscream, Power Hungry // Starscream, Seeker Leader, vs $470 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.