BRO·Released Nov 18, 2022·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

The Brothers' War

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$570

$47.50 / pack

Expected value

$248

$20.64 / pack

Net EV per box

−$322

Return on a box

−56.5%

Chance to break even

4.6%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader

Borderless

Single price: $402
Share of box EV: 16.4%
Pull any copy: 1 in 10 (9.6% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 7 boxes ($3,990)

Chasing Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader by cracking boxes means spending about $3,990for a 50/50 shot — vs $402 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	146.35 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	31.48 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	2.11 cards	87.9%	1 in 2
Serialized	0.06 cards	5.8%	1 in 17

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −57%
Net EV per box: −$322
Chance to break even: 5%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$570Box price

$123Floor (10%)

$196Typical

$248Average (EV)

$466Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $123
Typical: $196
Average (EV): $248
Lucky (90%): $466

The average box ($248) is $51.96 above a typical box ($196) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $570
Standalone pack listing: $49.95
Implied pack (box / packs): $47.50
EV per pack: $20.64; $248 / box
Return opening box: −57%
Return buying packs at listing: −59%

The box is the better deal per pack ($47.50 vs $49.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −57% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$248	$248(+$0.00)
Variance	21836	21679(-0.7%)
Std deviation	$148	$147

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $402
Pull any copy: 1 in 10 (9.6% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 7
Cost of those boxes: $3,990
Boxes for 95% chance: 29
Cost at 95%: $16,530

You'd spend about $3,990 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader, vs $402 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $570

EV $248

Median $196

$0$158$317$475$633$792$950

Distribution of total card value per box across 19-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 4.6%
P(box ≥ expected value): 33.4%
Typical box (median): $196
Average box (EV): $248
Unlucky box (10th pct): $123
Lucky box (90th pct): $466
God box (99th pct): $754

Roughly 5% of boxes return more than the $570 you paid. You'd need to open about 64 boxes (~$36,480) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $196) is $51.96 below the $248 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $248 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Transformersfoil

$58.2524%

Foil Alt Artfoil

$47.3219%

Brr Schematic Rare/Mythic

$26.4511%

Transformers

$21.809%

Brr Retro Artifact Rare/Mythic

$20.778%

Extended Rare/Mythic

$18.197%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$15.986%

Extended Commander Jumpstart

$15.216%

Double Rainbow Serializedfoil

$14.556%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$3.351%

Foil Brr Retro Artifact Schematic Uncommonfoil

$2.921%

Brr Schematic Uncommon

$0.880%

Foil Fullart Basicfoil

$0.830%

Brr Retro Artifact Uncommon

$0.750%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.460%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $248 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader#27	Borderless	$402	0.101	16.4%	$40.54
Slicer, Hired Muscle // Slicer, High-Speed Antagonist#21	Borderless	$367	0.101	14.9%	$36.96
Megatron, Tyrant // Megatron, Destructive Force#26	Borderless	$322	0.101	13.1%	$32.50
Soundwave, Sonic Spy // Soundwave, Superior Captain#28	Borderless	$284	0.101	11.6%	$28.64
Flamewar, Brash Veteran // Flamewar, Streetwise Operative#24	Borderless	$200	0.101	8.1%	$20.17
Blitzwing, Cruel Tormentor // Blitzwing, Adaptive Assailant#19	Borderless	$190	0.101	7.7%	$19.16
Ratchet, Field Medic // Ratchet, Rescue Racer#17	Borderless	$188	0.101	7.6%	$18.91
Goldbug, Humanity's Ally // Goldbug, Scrappy Scout#25	Borderless	$122	0.101	5.0%	$12.31
Ultra Magnus, Tactician // Ultra Magnus, Armored Carrier#29	Borderless	$102	0.101	4.1%	$10.24
Blaster, Combat DJ // Blaster, Morale Booster#22	Borderless	$94.69	0.101	3.9%	$9.55
Mox Amber#35	—	$71.01	0.122	3.5%	$8.65
Jetfire, Ingenious Scientist // Jetfire, Air Guardian#18	Borderless	$82.49	0.101	3.4%	$8.32
Mox Amber#98	—	$84.99	0.088	3.0%	$7.51
Urza's Workshop#51	Extended art	$13.50	0.514	2.8%	$6.94
Prowl, Stoic Strategist // Prowl, Pursuit Vehicle#16	Borderless	$66.64	0.101	2.7%	$6.72
Slicer, Hired Muscle // Slicer, High-Speed Antagonist#6	—	$8.00	0.706	2.3%	$5.65
Cyclonus, the Saboteur // Cyclonus, Cybertronian Fighter#23	Borderless	$55.41	0.101	2.3%	$5.59
Portal to Phyrexia#365	Extended art	$33.92	0.146	2.0%	$4.96
Diabolic Intent#324	Extended art	$14.00	0.292	1.7%	$4.09
Unwinding Clock#61	—	$15.69	0.244	1.5%	$3.82
Optimus Prime, Hero // Optimus Prime, Autobot Leader#13	—	$4.90	0.706	1.4%	$3.46
Unwinding Clock#124	—	$17.00	0.177	1.2%	$3.00
Ashnod's Altar#67	—	$16.66	0.177	1.2%	$2.94
Awaken the Woods#344	Extended art	$20.00	0.146	1.2%	$2.92
Ashnod's Altar#4	—	$11.99	0.244	1.2%	$2.92
Myrel, Shield of Argive#305	Extended art	$18.50	0.146	1.1%	$2.70
Aetherflux Reservoir#2	—	$21.00	0.122	1.0%	$2.56
Diabolic Intent#89	—	$15.00	0.161	1.0%	$2.42
Aetherflux Reservoir#65	—	$27.23	0.088	1.0%	$2.41
Cityscape Leveler#363	Extended art	$14.95	0.146	0.9%	$2.19
Portal to Phyrexia#240	—	$26.01	0.081	0.8%	$2.09
Staff of Titania#50	Extended art	$3.99	0.514	0.8%	$2.05
Starscream, Power Hungry // Starscream, Seeker Leader#5	—	$2.78	0.706	0.8%	$1.96
Mesmeric Orb#31	—	$16.09	0.122	0.8%	$1.96
Altar of Dementia#3	—	$15.99	0.122	0.8%	$1.95