DSK·Released Sep 27, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Duskmourn: House of Horror

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$755

$62.92 / pack

Expected value

$230

$19.14 / pack

Net EV per box

−$525

Return on a box

−69.6%

Chance to break even

0.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

10698

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Overlord of the Balemurk

Showcase

Single price: $67.75
Share of box EV: 3.2%
Pull any copy: 1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 7 boxes ($5,285)

Chasing Overlord of the Balemurk by cracking boxes means spending about $5,285for a 50/50 shot — vs $67.75 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	131.52 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	18.71 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Extended art	17.53 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Showcase	12.00 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Textured	0.12 cards	11.3%	1 in 9
Fracture foil	0.12 cards	11.3%	1 in 9

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −70%
Net EV per box: −$525
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$755Box price

$144Floor (10%)

$212Typical

$230Average (EV)

$340Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $144
Typical: $212
Average (EV): $230
Lucky (90%): $340

The average box ($230) is $17.53 above a typical box ($212) — 8%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $755
Standalone pack listing: $65.00
Implied pack (box / packs): $62.92
EV per pack: $19.14; $230 / box
Return opening box: −70%
Return buying packs at listing: −71%

The box is the better deal per pack ($62.92 vs $65.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −70% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$230	$230(+$0.32)
Variance	7403	7313(-1.2%)
Std deviation	$86.04	$85.52

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $67.75
Pull any copy: 1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 7
Cost of those boxes: $5,285
Boxes for 95% chance: 27
Cost at 95%: $20,385

You'd spend about $5,285 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Overlord of the Balemurk, vs $67.75 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $755

EV $230

Median $212

$0$208$417$625$833$1,042$1,250

Distribution of total card value per box across 25-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 39.8%
Typical box (median): $212
Average box (EV): $230
Unlucky box (10th pct): $144
Lucky box (90th pct): $340
God box (99th pct): $513

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $755 you paid. You'd need to open about 10698 boxes (~$8,076,883) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $212) is $17.53 below the $230 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $230 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Booster Funfoil

$12153%

Booster Fun

$54.9524%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$27.2512%

Showcase Commander

$17.738%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$6.013%

Foil Showcase Commanderfoil

$2.011%

Foil Basicfoil

$0.910%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $230 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Overlord of the Balemurk#391	Showcase	$67.75	0.108	3.2%	$7.32
Enduring Curiosity#388	Showcase	$59.88	0.108	2.8%	$6.47
Enduring Vitality#394	Showcase	$58.64	0.108	2.8%	$6.33
Valgavoth, Terror Eater#407	Textured	$256	0.024	2.7%	$6.13
Gloomlake Verge#331	Borderless	$11.71	0.497	2.5%	$5.82
Overlord of the Balemurk#377	Extended art	$23.00	0.249	2.5%	$5.72
Enduring Tenacity#390	Showcase	$48.97	0.108	2.3%	$5.29
Floodfarm Verge#330	Borderless	$9.89	0.497	2.1%	$4.92
Overlord of the Hauntwoods#395	Showcase	$42.49	0.108	2.0%	$4.59
Blazemire Verge#329	Borderless	$9.16	0.497	2.0%	$4.55
Valgavoth, Harrower of Souls#6	Borderless	$16.00	0.273	1.9%	$4.36
Persistent Constrictor#52	Extended art	$11.60	0.364	1.8%	$4.22
Enduring Courage#392	Showcase	$37.78	0.108	1.8%	$4.08
Enduring Vitality#381	Extended art	$8.00	0.497	1.7%	$3.98
Abhorrent Oculus#344	Borderless	$14.56	0.249	1.6%	$3.62
Hushwood Verge#332	Borderless	$7.00	0.497	1.5%	$3.48
Giggling Skitterspike#66	Extended art	$8.99	0.364	1.4%	$3.27
Enduring Innocence#386	Showcase	$29.33	0.108	1.4%	$3.17
Valgavoth, Terror Eater#352	Borderless	$12.65	0.249	1.4%	$3.14
Enduring Vitality#404	Fracture foil	$257	0.012	1.3%	$3.09
Enduring Curiosity#371	Extended art	$5.99	0.497	1.3%	$2.98
Enduring Tenacity#374	Extended art	$5.82	0.497	1.3%	$2.89
Untimely Malfunction#161	—	$5.70	0.480	1.2%	$2.74
Overlord of the Balemurk#401	Fracture foil	$225	0.012	1.2%	$2.70
Thornspire Verge#333	Borderless	$5.00	0.497	1.1%	$2.49
Overlord of the Mistmoors#387	Showcase	$22.49	0.108	1.1%	$2.43
Kaito, Bane of Nightmares#328	Borderless	$19.00	0.124	1.0%	$2.36
Enduring Curiosity#398	Fracture foil	$190	0.012	1.0%	$2.28
Kaito, Bane of Nightmares#409	Textured	$94.72	0.024	1.0%	$2.27
Enduring Courage#402	Fracture foil	$187	0.012	1.0%	$2.24
Enduring Tenacity#95	—	$12.62	0.171	0.9%	$2.16
Overlord of the Hauntwoods#405	Fracture foil	$180	0.012	0.9%	$2.16
Razorkin Needlehead#347	Borderless	$4.33	0.497	0.9%	$2.15
Overlord of the Hauntwoods#383	Extended art	$8.00	0.249	0.9%	$1.99
Enduring Innocence#368	Extended art	$4.00	0.497	0.9%	$1.99