Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

Videos · Portfolio · Pull rates · Methodology · Compare sets · llms.txt · Why we don't crack · for educational purposes

WWhy we don't crack
VideosPortfolioPull ratesCompareMarketMethodology
  1. Home
  2. /March of the Machine: The Aftermath
MAT·Released May 12, 2023·12 packs / box · 6 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...

Set snapshot

Box price
$295
$24.58/pack
Expected value
$143
$11.94/pack
Net EV
−$152
Break-even
0.5%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −51%

Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin

$99.38 · 1 in 26 · 4% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$90.29
$139
$143
$203
$295
Floor (10%)
$90.29
Typical
$139
Average (EV)
$143
Lucky (90%)
$203
Box price
$295

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $295
EV $143
Median $139
$0$80$160$240$320$400$480

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boosterbox TCG low $295, expected value $143, median box $139, 1% break-even, −51% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector booster box is $143 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $139.
What are the odds of breaking even on March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($295). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold March of the Machine: The Aftermath sealed?
Money pit. EV is $143 vs sealed $295 (−51% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$14.38 (11.1%) · Box +$75.00 (34.1%) over 3m · ROI −10.0%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$295
Standalone pack listing
$25.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$24.58
EV per pack
$11.94
$143 / box
Return opening box
−51%
Return buying packs at listing
−54%

The box is the better deal per pack ($24.58 vs $25.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −51% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$25.59
Pull any copy
1 in 6 (18.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
4
Cost of those boxes
$1,180
Boxes for 95% chance
14
Cost at 95%
$4,130

You'd spend about $1,180 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Nissa, Resurgent Animist, vs $25.59 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard36.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase20.00 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art12.00 cards100.0%1 in 2
Halo foil4.00 cards98.2%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference