March of the Machine: The Aftermath
Chase card spotlight
Nissa, Resurgent Animist
Extended art
- Single price
- $28.06
- Share of box EV
- 4.4%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 6 (18.1% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 4 boxes ($880)
Chasing Nissa, Resurgent Animist by cracking boxes means spending about $880for a 50/50 shot — vs $28.06 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 36.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 22.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 12.00 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Halo foil | 2.00 cards | 86.5% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −42%
- Net EV per box
- −$91.42
- Chance to break even
- 2%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $79.79
- Typical
- $125
- Average (EV)
- $129
- Lucky (90%)
- $182
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $220
- Standalone pack listing
- $15.98
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $18.33
- EV per pack
- $10.71
- $129 / box
- Return opening box
- −42%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −33%
Standalone packs list at $15.98 vs $18.33 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $10.71/pack (−33% return either way).
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $129 | $129(+$0.32) |
| Variance | 1642 | 1634(-0.5%) |
| Std deviation | $40.52 | $40.42 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $28.06
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 6 (18.1% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 4
- Cost of those boxes
- $880
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 14
- Cost at 95%
- $3,080
You'd spend about $880 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Nissa, Resurgent Animist, vs $28.06 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 18-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 2.3%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 46.6%
- Typical box (median)
- $125
- Average box (EV)
- $129
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $79.79
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $182
- God box (99th pct)
- $239
Roughly 2% of boxes return more than the $220 you paid. You'd need to open about 127 boxes (~$27,939) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $125) is $3.43 below the $129 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $129 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $129 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nissa, Resurgent Animist#162 | Extended art | $28.06 | 0.200 | 4.4% | $5.61 |
| Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin#91 | Showcase | $28.99 | 0.183 | 4.1% | $5.31 |
| Nissa, Resurgent Animist#122 | — | $25.86 | 0.200 | 4.0% | $5.17 |
| Nissa, Resurgent Animist#22 | — | $24.11 | 0.200 | 3.8% | $4.82 |
| Nissa, Resurgent Animist#72 | Showcase | $25.00 | 0.183 | 3.6% | $4.58 |
| Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin#176 | Extended art | $20.75 | 0.200 | 3.2% | $4.15 |
| Tyvar the Bellicose#98 | Showcase | $19.14 | 0.183 | 2.7% | $3.51 |
| Karn, Legacy Reforged#149 | — | $16.99 | 0.200 | 2.6% | $3.40 |
| Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin#41 | — | $16.50 | 0.200 | 2.6% | $3.30 |
| Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin#141 | — | $16.25 | 0.200 | 2.5% | $3.25 |
| Karn, Legacy Reforged#49 | — | $14.00 | 0.200 | 2.2% | $2.80 |
| Calix, Guided by Fate#76 | Showcase | $15.00 | 0.183 | 2.1% | $2.75 |
| Karn, Legacy Reforged#184 | Extended art | $13.43 | 0.200 | 2.1% | $2.69 |
| Tyvar the Bellicose#148 | — | $12.27 | 0.200 | 1.9% | $2.45 |
| Training Grounds#109 | — | $6.06 | 0.400 | 1.9% | $2.42 |
| Training Grounds#155 | Extended art | $6.00 | 0.400 | 1.9% | $2.40 |
| Training Grounds#59 | Showcase | $6.50 | 0.367 | 1.9% | $2.38 |
| Karn, Legacy Reforged#99 | Showcase | $12.91 | 0.183 | 1.8% | $2.37 |
| Tyvar the Bellicose#183 | Extended art | $11.63 | 0.200 | 1.8% | $2.33 |
| Calix, Guided by Fate#165 | Extended art | $11.00 | 0.200 | 1.7% | $2.20 |
| Tyvar the Bellicose#48 | — | $11.00 | 0.200 | 1.7% | $2.20 |
| Calix, Guided by Fate#26 | — | $11.00 | 0.200 | 1.7% | $2.20 |
| Nahiri, Forged in Fury#86 | Showcase | $11.79 | 0.183 | 1.7% | $2.16 |
| Calix, Guided by Fate#126 | — | $10.00 | 0.200 | 1.6% | $2.00 |
| Narset, Enlightened Exile#173 | Extended art | $9.98 | 0.200 | 1.6% | $2.00 |
| Nahiri, Forged in Fury#171 | Extended art | $9.50 | 0.200 | 1.5% | $1.90 |
| Sigarda, Font of Blessings#97 | Showcase | $5.00 | 0.367 | 1.4% | $1.83 |
| Sigarda, Font of Blessings#182 | Extended art | $4.52 | 0.400 | 1.4% | $1.81 |
| Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin#220 | Halo foil | $83.51 | 0.020 | 1.3% | $1.67 |
| Open the Way#163 | Extended art | $3.90 | 0.400 | 1.2% | $1.56 |
| Training Grounds#9 | — | $3.75 | 0.400 | 1.2% | $1.50 |
| Nahiri, Forged in Fury#136 | — | $7.26 | 0.200 | 1.1% | $1.45 |
| Open the Way#123 | — | $3.52 | 0.400 | 1.1% | $1.41 |
| Nahiri, Forged in Fury#36 | — | $6.96 | 0.200 | 1.1% | $1.39 |
| Sarkhan, Soul Aflame#96 | Showcase | $7.13 | 0.183 | 1.0% | $1.31 |