Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($145) is $5.82 above a typical box ($139) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 55th percentile — 55% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
March of the Machine: The Aftermath collector boosterbox TCG low $305, expected value $145, median box $139, 1% break-even, −53% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$15.48 (11.9%) · Box +$73.00 (31.7%) over 3m · ROI −8.6%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($25.42 vs $29.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −53% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,220 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Nissa, Resurgent Animist, vs $25.76 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 36.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 20.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 12.00 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Halo foil | 4.00 cards | 98.2% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference