Double Masters 2022
Chase card spotlight
Imperial Seal
Borderless
- Single price
- $204
- Share of box EV
- 7.2%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 11 (9.2% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 7 boxes ($2,793)
Chasing Imperial Seal by cracking boxes means spending about $2,793for a 50/50 shot — vs $204 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 36.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 23.76 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Textured | 0.24 cards | 21.0% | 1 in 5 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −31%
- Net EV per box
- −$124
- Chance to break even
- 14%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $147
- Typical
- $257
- Average (EV)
- $275
- Lucky (90%)
- $426
The average box ($275) is $18.32 above a typical box ($257) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $399
- Standalone pack listing
- $110
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $99.75
- EV per pack
- $68.77
- $275 / box
- Return opening box
- −31%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −37%
The box is the better deal per pack ($99.75 vs $110 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −31% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $275 | $275(-$0.24) |
| Variance | 12330 | 12503(+1.4%) |
| Std deviation | $111 | $112 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $204
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 11 (9.2% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 7
- Cost of those boxes
- $2,793
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 30
- Cost at 95%
- $11,970
You'd spend about $2,793 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Imperial Seal, vs $204 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 13.8%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 43.5%
- Typical box (median)
- $257
- Average box (EV)
- $275
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $147
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $426
- God box (99th pct)
- $602
Roughly 14% of boxes return more than the $399 you paid. You'd need to open about 21 boxes (~$8,379) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $257) is $18.32 below the $275 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $275 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $275 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial Seal#354 | Borderless | $204 | 0.097 | 7.2% | $19.81 |
| Mana Vault#394 | Borderless | $199 | 0.097 | 7.0% | $19.31 |
| Smothering Tithe#342 | Borderless | $82.40 | 0.194 | 5.8% | $16.00 |
| Sensei's Divining Top#398 | Borderless | $69.08 | 0.194 | 4.9% | $13.41 |
| Force of Negation#346 | Borderless | $66.43 | 0.194 | 4.7% | $12.90 |
| Phyrexian Altar#396 | Borderless | $61.11 | 0.194 | 4.3% | $11.86 |
| City of Brass#403 | Borderless | $44.62 | 0.194 | 3.1% | $8.66 |
| Teferi's Protection#343 | Borderless | $43.00 | 0.194 | 3.0% | $8.35 |
| Mana Drain#348 | Borderless | $78.00 | 0.097 | 2.8% | $7.57 |
| Allosaurus Shepherd#365 | Borderless | $67.54 | 0.097 | 2.4% | $6.56 |
| Cavern of Souls#402 | Borderless | $58.00 | 0.097 | 2.0% | $5.63 |
| Kozilek, Butcher of Truth#336 | Borderless | $55.00 | 0.097 | 1.9% | $5.34 |
| Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre#337 | Borderless | $47.23 | 0.097 | 1.7% | $4.58 |
| Vedalken Orrery#399 | Borderless | $20.50 | 0.194 | 1.4% | $3.98 |
| Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre#577 | Textured | $84.35 | 0.047 | 1.4% | $3.97 |
| Kozilek, Butcher of Truth#576 | Textured | $80.68 | 0.047 | 1.4% | $3.80 |
| Damnation#353 | Borderless | $18.50 | 0.194 | 1.3% | $3.59 |
| Consecrated Sphinx#345 | Borderless | $36.03 | 0.097 | 1.3% | $3.50 |
| Concordant Crossroads#367 | Borderless | $34.10 | 0.097 | 1.2% | $3.31 |
| Imperial Seal#439 | — | $229 | 0.014 | 1.2% | $3.27 |
| Mana Vault#560 | — | $205 | 0.014 | 1.1% | $2.93 |
| Crucible of Worlds#393 | Borderless | $30.00 | 0.097 | 1.1% | $2.91 |
| Grand Arbiter Augustin IV#379 | Borderless | $14.99 | 0.194 | 1.1% | $2.91 |
| Emiel the Blessed#338 | Borderless | $28.10 | 0.097 | 1.0% | $2.73 |
| Bloom Tender#366 | Borderless | $13.97 | 0.194 | 1.0% | $2.71 |
| Panharmonicon#395 | Borderless | $13.29 | 0.194 | 0.9% | $2.58 |
| Dockside Extortionist#360 | Borderless | $25.89 | 0.097 | 0.9% | $2.51 |
| Imperial Seal#79 | — | $175 | 0.014 | 0.9% | $2.50 |
| Emrakul, the Aeons Torn#335 | Borderless | $24.00 | 0.097 | 0.8% | $2.33 |
| Emrakul, the Aeons Torn#575 | Textured | $45.97 | 0.047 | 0.8% | $2.16 |
| Sensei's Divining Top#566 | — | $74.99 | 0.029 | 0.8% | $2.14 |
| Mana Vault#308 | — | $138 | 0.014 | 0.7% | $1.97 |
| Phyrexian Altar#563 | — | $67.43 | 0.029 | 0.7% | $1.93 |
| Force of Negation#429 | — | $66.00 | 0.029 | 0.7% | $1.89 |
| Oracle of Mul Daya#370 | Borderless | $9.01 | 0.194 | 0.6% | $1.75 |