Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$146
$258
$276
$436
$465
Floor (10%)
$146
Typical
$258
Average (EV)
$276
Lucky (90%)
$436
Box price
$465
The average box ($276) is $18.29 above a typical box ($258) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
6%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $465
EV $276 · 56th
Median $258
$0$125$250$375$500$625$750
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 56th percentile — 56% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Double Masters 2022 collector boosterbox TCG low $465, expected value $276, median box $258, 7% break-even, −41% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Double Masters 2022 collector booster box is $276 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $258.
What are the odds of breaking even on Double Masters 2022 collector boosters?
About 7% of simulated Double Masters 2022 collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($465). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Double Masters 2022 sealed?
Money pit. EV is $276 vs sealed $465 (−41% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$0.32 (-0.1%) · Box +$20.05 (4.7%) over 3m · ROI −2.9%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$465
Standalone pack listing
$128
Implied pack (box / packs)
$116
EV per pack
$69.03
$276 / box
Return opening box
−41%
Return buying packs at listing
−46%
The box is the better deal per pack ($116 vs $128 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −41% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$207
Pull any copy
1 in 11 (9.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$3,255
Boxes for 95% chance
29
Cost at 95%
$13,485
You'd spend about $3,255 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mana Vault, vs $207 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.