Foundations
Chase card spotlight
Llanowar Elves
Showcase
- Single price
- $220
- Share of box EV
- 6.6%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 7 boxes ($5,222)
Chasing Llanowar Elves by cracking boxes means spending about $5,222for a 50/50 shot — vs $220 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 143.36 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 20.08 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 14.70 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 1.74 cards | 82.4% | 1 in 2 |
| Fracture foil | 0.12 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −52%
- Net EV per box
- −$389
- Chance to break even
- 4%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $189
- Typical
- $314
- Average (EV)
- $357
- Lucky (90%)
- $565
The average box ($357) is $43.75 above a typical box ($314) — 12%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $746
- Standalone pack listing
- $94.95
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $62.17
- EV per pack
- $29.78
- $357 / box
- Return opening box
- −52%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −69%
The box is the better deal per pack ($62.17 vs $94.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −52% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $357 | $358(+$0.41) |
| Variance | 31549 | 31698(+0.5%) |
| Std deviation | $178 | $178 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $220
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 7
- Cost of those boxes
- $5,222
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 27
- Cost at 95%
- $20,142
You'd spend about $5,222 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Llanowar Elves, vs $220 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 24-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 3.9%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 39.6%
- Typical box (median)
- $314
- Average box (EV)
- $358
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $189
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $565
- God box (99th pct)
- $1,039
Roughly 4% of boxes return more than the $746 you paid. You'd need to open about 75 boxes (~$55,950) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $314) is $43.75 below the $357 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $357 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $357 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Llanowar Elves#429 | Showcase | $220 | 0.108 | 6.6% | $23.76 |
| Doubling Season#428 | Showcase | $187 | 0.108 | 5.6% | $20.16 |
| Bloodthirsty Conqueror#426 | Showcase | $141 | 0.108 | 4.2% | $15.18 |
| Twinflame Tyrant#427 | Showcase | $120 | 0.108 | 3.6% | $12.96 |
| Twinflame Tyrant#333 | Borderless | $55.72 | 0.177 | 2.8% | $9.86 |
| High Fae Trickster#307 | Borderless | $27.65 | 0.354 | 2.7% | $9.79 |
| Sire of Seven Deaths#292 | Borderless | $55.00 | 0.177 | 2.7% | $9.74 |
| Llanowar Elves#439 | Fracture foil | $750 | 0.012 | 2.5% | $9.00 |
| Mossborn Hydra#337 | Borderless | $25.00 | 0.354 | 2.5% | $8.86 |
| Bloodthirsty Conqueror#318 | Borderless | $49.01 | 0.177 | 2.4% | $8.68 |
| Bloodthirsty Conqueror#460 | Extended art | $46.64 | 0.177 | 2.3% | $8.26 |
| Lathril, Blade of the Elves#349 | Borderless | $22.99 | 0.354 | 2.3% | $8.14 |
| Doubling Season#438 | Fracture foil | $617 | 0.012 | 2.1% | $7.41 |
| Twinflame Tyrant#469 | Extended art | $37.12 | 0.177 | 1.8% | $6.57 |
| Mossborn Hydra#471 | Extended art | $17.93 | 0.354 | 1.8% | $6.35 |
| Scrawling Crawler#354 | Borderless | $17.00 | 0.354 | 1.7% | $6.02 |
| High Fae Trickster#453 | Extended art | $17.00 | 0.354 | 1.7% | $6.02 |
| Bloodthirsty Conqueror#58 | — | $34.67 | 0.171 | 1.7% | $5.94 |
| Muldrotha, the Gravetide#430 | Showcase | $54.28 | 0.108 | 1.6% | $5.86 |
| Giada, Font of Hope#298 | Borderless | $16.51 | 0.354 | 1.6% | $5.85 |
| Etali, Primal Storm#329 | Borderless | $16.13 | 0.354 | 1.6% | $5.71 |
| Twinflame Tyrant#437 | Fracture foil | $457 | 0.012 | 1.5% | $5.48 |
| Doubling Season#216 | — | $30.00 | 0.171 | 1.4% | $5.14 |
| Rise of the Dark Realms#323 | Borderless | $27.90 | 0.177 | 1.4% | $4.94 |
| Banner of Kinship#352 | Borderless | $13.41 | 0.354 | 1.3% | $4.75 |
| Niv-Mizzet, Visionary#350 | Borderless | $24.89 | 0.177 | 1.2% | $4.41 |
| Liliana, Dreadhorde General#359 | Borderless | $24.47 | 0.177 | 1.2% | $4.33 |
| Twinflame Tyrant#97 | — | $23.99 | 0.171 | 1.2% | $4.11 |
| Herald of Eternal Dawn#423 | Showcase | $37.00 | 0.108 | 1.1% | $4.00 |
| Bloodthirsty Conqueror#436 | Fracture foil | $327 | 0.012 | 1.1% | $3.93 |
| Exemplar of Light#297 | Borderless | $11.07 | 0.354 | 1.1% | $3.92 |
| Blasphemous Edict#317 | Borderless | $11.00 | 0.354 | 1.1% | $3.90 |
| Phyrexian Arena#322 | Borderless | $10.89 | 0.354 | 1.1% | $3.86 |
| Mossborn Hydra#107 | — | $10.00 | 0.343 | 1.0% | $3.43 |
| Nine-Lives Familiar#321 | Borderless | $9.54 | 0.354 | 0.9% | $3.38 |