Assassin's Creed
Chase card spotlight
Black Market Connections
Extended art
- Single price
- $24.81
- Share of box EV
- 11.7%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 2 (64.1% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 1 boxes ($393)
Chasing Black Market Connections by cracking boxes means spending about $393for a 50/50 shot — vs $24.81 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 82.37 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 16.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 16.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 3.42 cards | 96.7% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.37 cards | 31.1% | 1 in 3 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −45%
- Net EV per box
- −$175
- Chance to break even
- 0%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $157
- Typical
- $214
- Average (EV)
- $217
- Lucky (90%)
- $283
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $393
- Standalone pack listing
- $36.00
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $32.73
- EV per pack
- $18.11
- $217 / box
- Return opening box
- −45%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −50%
The box is the better deal per pack ($32.73 vs $36.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −45% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $217 | $218(+$0.36) |
| Variance | 2399 | 2409(+0.4%) |
| Std deviation | $48.98 | $49.08 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $24.81
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 2 (64.1% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 1
- Cost of those boxes
- $393
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 1
- Cost at 95%
- $393
You'd spend about $393 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Black Market Connections, vs $24.81 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 0.1%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 47.3%
- Typical box (median)
- $214
- Average box (EV)
- $218
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $157
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $283
- God box (99th pct)
- $347
Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $393 you paid. You'd need to open about 2415 boxes (~$948,371) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $214) is $3.42 below the $217 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $217 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $217 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Market Connections#161 | Extended art | $24.81 | 1.025 | 11.7% | $25.44 |
| Excalibur, Sword of Eden#169 | Extended art | $16.38 | 1.025 | 7.7% | $16.80 |
| Caduceus, Staff of Hermes#155 | Extended art | $8.36 | 1.025 | 3.9% | $8.57 |
| Black Market Connections#198 | — | $25.74 | 0.308 | 3.6% | $7.92 |
| Sword of Feast and Famine#124 | Borderless | $44.00 | 0.149 | 3.0% | $6.56 |
| Cover of Darkness#163 | Extended art | $6.34 | 1.025 | 3.0% | $6.50 |
| Brotherhood Regalia#255 | — | $25.89 | 0.245 | 2.9% | $6.34 |
| Excalibur, Sword of Eden#256 | — | $19.04 | 0.308 | 2.7% | $5.86 |
| Ezio Auditore da Firenze#113 | Borderless | $37.30 | 0.148 | 2.5% | $5.53 |
| Sword of Feast and Famine#261 | — | $35.00 | 0.154 | 2.5% | $5.38 |
| Black Market Connections#87 | — | $16.17 | 0.308 | 2.3% | $4.98 |
| Sword of Feast and Famine#99 | — | $30.99 | 0.154 | 2.2% | $4.77 |
| Brotherhood Regalia#71 | — | $6.75 | 0.667 | 2.1% | $4.50 |
| Fiery Islet#112 | Borderless | $14.99 | 0.297 | 2.0% | $4.45 |
| Desynchronization#159 | Extended art | $4.00 | 1.025 | 1.9% | $4.10 |
| Ezio Auditore da Firenze#267 | Textured | $49.72 | 0.075 | 1.7% | $3.71 |
| Abstergo Entertainment#171 | Extended art | $3.25 | 1.025 | 1.5% | $3.33 |
| Caduceus, Staff of Hermes#173 | — | $10.00 | 0.308 | 1.4% | $3.08 |
| Excalibur, Sword of Eden#72 | — | $10.00 | 0.308 | 1.4% | $3.08 |
| Mjölnir, Storm Hammer#170 | Extended art | $3.00 | 1.025 | 1.4% | $3.08 |
| Assassin's Trophy#166 | Extended art | $2.97 | 1.025 | 1.4% | $3.05 |
| Edward Kenway#269 | Textured | $39.14 | 0.075 | 1.3% | $2.92 |
| Reconnaissance#82 | — | $3.99 | 0.667 | 1.2% | $2.66 |
| Altaïr Ibn-La'Ahad#268 | Textured | $32.38 | 0.075 | 1.1% | $2.41 |
| Propaganda#195 | — | $9.73 | 0.245 | 1.1% | $2.38 |
| Reconnaissance#179 | — | $9.59 | 0.245 | 1.1% | $2.35 |
| Silent Clearing#115 | Borderless | $7.46 | 0.297 | 1.0% | $2.21 |
| Edward Kenway#234 | — | $14.36 | 0.154 | 1.0% | $2.21 |
| Cover of Darkness#201 | — | $6.89 | 0.308 | 1.0% | $2.12 |
| Nurturing Peatland#114 | Borderless | $7.00 | 0.297 | 1.0% | $2.08 |
| Crystal Skull, Isu Spyglass#158 | Extended art | $2.00 | 1.025 | 0.9% | $2.05 |
| Sword of Light and Shadow#125 | Borderless | $13.05 | 0.149 | 0.9% | $1.95 |
| Edward Kenway#143 | Showcase | $13.00 | 0.149 | 0.9% | $1.94 |
| Mjölnir, Storm Hammer#258 | — | $5.99 | 0.308 | 0.8% | $1.84 |
| Sunbaked Canyon#111 | Borderless | $6.00 | 0.297 | 0.8% | $1.78 |