Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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ACR·Released Jul 5, 2024·12 packs / box · 11 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Assassin's Creed collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$598
$49.83/pack
Expected value
$301
$25.07/pack
Net EV
−$297
Break-even
9.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −50%

Leonardo da Vinci

$894 · 1 in 42 · 2% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$166
$230
$301
$362
$598
Floor (10%)
$166
Typical
$230
Average (EV)
$301
Lucky (90%)
$362
Box price
$598

The average box ($301) is $70.73 above a typical box ($230) — 24%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

91%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

9%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $598
EV $301
Median $230
$0$167$333$500$667$833$1,000

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Assassin's Creed collector boosterbox TCG low $598, expected value $301, median box $230, 9% break-even, −50% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Assassin's Creed collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Assassin's Creed collector booster box is $301 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $230.
What are the odds of breaking even on Assassin's Creed collector boosters?
About 9% of simulated Assassin's Creed collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($598). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Assassin's Creed sealed?
Money pit. EV is $301 vs sealed $598 (−50% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$14.00 (4.9%) · Box +$229 (62.1%) over 3m · ROI −27.4%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$598
Standalone pack listing
$44.95
Implied pack (box / packs)
$49.83
EV per pack
$25.07
$301 / box
Return opening box
−50%
Return buying packs at listing
−44%

Standalone packs list at $44.95 vs $49.83 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $25.07/pack (−44% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$24.34
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (64.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$598
Boxes for 95% chance
1
Cost at 95%
$598

You'd spend about $598 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Black Market Connections, vs $24.34 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard82.37 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase16.92 cards100.0%1 in 2
Extended art16.92 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless3.42 cards96.7%1 in 2
Textured0.373 cards31.1%1 in 3
Serialized0.096 cards9.2%1 in 11

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference