Commander Masters
Chase card spotlight
Deflecting Swat
Borderless
- Single price
- $165
- Share of box EV
- 10.4%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 6 (16.7% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 4 boxes ($1,960)
Chasing Deflecting Swat by cracking boxes means spending about $1,960for a 50/50 shot — vs $165 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 36.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 19.84 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 4.00 cards | 98.2% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.16 cards | 14.8% | 1 in 7 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −41%
- Net EV per box
- −$201
- Chance to break even
- 5%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $167
- Typical
- $270
- Average (EV)
- $289
- Lucky (90%)
- $431
The average box ($289) is $18.86 above a typical box ($270) — 7%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $490
- Standalone pack listing
- $115
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $122
- EV per pack
- $72.31
- $289 / box
- Return opening box
- −41%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −37%
Standalone packs list at $115 vs $122 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $72.31/pack (−37% return either way).
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $289 | $290(+$1.08) |
| Variance | 13512 | 13709(+1.5%) |
| Std deviation | $116 | $117 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $165
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 6 (16.7% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 4
- Cost of those boxes
- $1,960
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 15
- Cost at 95%
- $7,350
You'd spend about $1,960 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Deflecting Swat, vs $165 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 5.0%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 43.2%
- Typical box (median)
- $270
- Average box (EV)
- $290
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $167
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $431
- God box (99th pct)
- $737
Roughly 5% of boxes return more than the $490 you paid. You'd need to open about 58 boxes (~$28,419) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $270) is $18.86 below the $289 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $289 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $289 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflecting Swat#698 | Borderless | $165 | 0.182 | 10.4% | $30.11 |
| Fierce Guardianship#694 | Borderless | $89.00 | 0.182 | 5.6% | $16.23 |
| Jeweled Lotus#702 | Borderless | $150 | 0.091 | 4.7% | $13.68 |
| Demonic Tutor#696 | Borderless | $135 | 0.091 | 4.3% | $12.31 |
| Finale of Devastation#700 | Borderless | $96.00 | 0.091 | 3.0% | $8.75 |
| Jeweled Lotus#1066 | Textured | $507 | 0.016 | 2.8% | $8.12 |
| Deadly Rollick#695 | Borderless | $42.81 | 0.182 | 2.7% | $7.81 |
| Smothering Tithe#693 | Borderless | $70.00 | 0.091 | 2.2% | $6.38 |
| Flawless Maneuver#692 | Borderless | $32.83 | 0.182 | 2.1% | $5.99 |
| Bloodchief Ascension#636 | Borderless | $28.54 | 0.182 | 1.8% | $5.20 |
| Grand Abolisher#625 | Borderless | $25.07 | 0.182 | 1.6% | $4.57 |
| The Ur-Dragon#689 | Borderless | $42.29 | 0.091 | 1.3% | $3.86 |
| Mikaeus, the Unhallowed#675 | Borderless | $37.88 | 0.091 | 1.2% | $3.45 |
| Grave Pact#639 | Borderless | $37.70 | 0.091 | 1.2% | $3.44 |
| Training Center#665 | Borderless | $18.00 | 0.182 | 1.1% | $3.28 |
| Vault of Champions#667 | Borderless | $17.25 | 0.182 | 1.1% | $3.15 |
| Spectator Seating#664 | Borderless | $17.00 | 0.182 | 1.1% | $3.10 |
| Kindred Dominance#640 | Borderless | $17.00 | 0.182 | 1.1% | $3.10 |
| Fierce Guardianship#489 | — | $112 | 0.026 | 1.0% | $2.90 |
| Zhulodok, Void Gorger#752 | Extended art | $44.39 | 0.063 | 1.0% | $2.82 |
| Balefire Dragon#697 | Borderless | $30.00 | 0.091 | 0.9% | $2.73 |
| Deflecting Swat#532 | — | $103 | 0.026 | 0.9% | $2.66 |
| Darksteel Monolith#778 | Extended art | $20.83 | 0.127 | 0.9% | $2.65 |
| The Ur-Dragon#1065 | Textured | $157 | 0.016 | 0.9% | $2.51 |
| Rise of the Eldrazi#749 | Extended art | $18.85 | 0.127 | 0.8% | $2.39 |
| Sol Ring#703 | Borderless | $8.00 | 0.286 | 0.8% | $2.29 |
| Rejuvenating Springs#662 | Borderless | $12.00 | 0.182 | 0.8% | $2.19 |
| Azusa, Lost but Seeking#679 | Borderless | $12.00 | 0.182 | 0.8% | $2.19 |
| Undergrowth Stadium#666 | Borderless | $12.00 | 0.182 | 0.8% | $2.19 |
| Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger#670 | Borderless | $23.66 | 0.091 | 0.7% | $2.16 |
| Ohran Frostfang#650 | Borderless | $11.01 | 0.182 | 0.7% | $2.01 |
| Deflecting Swat#214 | — | $71.79 | 0.026 | 0.7% | $1.88 |
| Fierce Guardianship#94 | — | $70.90 | 0.026 | 0.6% | $1.86 |
| Spellseeker#635 | Borderless | $19.16 | 0.091 | 0.6% | $1.75 |
| Ondu Spiritdancer#756 | Extended art | $13.00 | 0.127 | 0.6% | $1.65 |