MSH·Released Jun 26, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Marvel Super Heroes collector booster EV
Verdict
Bad bet
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$194
$297
$328
$450
$465
Floor (10%)
$194
Typical
$297
Average (EV)
$328
Lucky (90%)
$450
Box price
$465
The average box ($328) is $31.94 above a typical box ($297) — 10%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
92%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
8%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $465
EV $328
Median $297
$0$125$250$375$500$625$750
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Marvel Super Heroes collector boosterbox TCG low $465, expected value $328, median box $297, 8% break-even, −29% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box is $328 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $297.
What are the odds of breaking even on Marvel Super Heroes collector boosters?
About 8% of simulated Marvel Super Heroes collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($465). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Marvel Super Heroes sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $328 vs sealed $465 (−29% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$68.58 (-17.3%) · Box −$5.00 (-1.1%) over 3m · ROI −13.8%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$465
Standalone pack listing
$39.70
Implied pack (box / packs)
$38.75
EV per pack
$27.37
$328 / box
Return opening box
−29%
Return buying packs at listing
−31%
The box is the better deal per pack ($38.75 vs $39.70 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −29% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,650
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$26,970
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$115,785
You'd spend about $26,970 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Mind Stone, vs $1,650 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.