MSH·Released Jun 26, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Marvel Super Heroes

Verdict

Just released

This set just released. TCGplayer single prices are thin and speculative right now and almost always fall after release, so the expected value below is likely overstated. Treat these numbers as provisional until the market settles.

Box price (TCG low)

$471

$39.27 / pack

Expected value

$484

$40.30 / pack

Net EV per box

+$12.39

Return on a box

+2.6%

Chance to break even

44.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Thanos, the Mad Titan

Borderless

Single price: $235
Share of box EV: 3.8%
Pull any copy: 1 in 13 (7.6% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 9 boxes ($4,241)

Chasing Thanos, the Mad Titan by cracking boxes means spending about $4,241for a 50/50 shot — vs $235 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	127.26 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	36.95 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	11.76 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Showcase	3.79 cards	97.7%	1 in 2
Poster	0.24 cards	21.1%	1 in 5

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Crack it

Return if cracked: +3%
Net EV per box: +$12.39
Chance to break even: 44%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$471Box price

$320Floor (10%)

$453Typical

$484Average (EV)

$647Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $320
Typical: $453
Average (EV): $484
Lucky (90%): $647

The average box ($484) is $30.85 above a typical box ($453) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $471
Standalone pack listing: $45.98
Implied pack (box / packs): $39.27
EV per pack: $40.30; $484 / box
Return opening box: +3%
Return buying packs at listing: −12%

The box is the better deal per pack ($39.27 vs $45.98 listing). Still a losing bet on average at +3% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$484	$483(-$0.63)
Variance	41264	39268(-4.8%)
Std deviation	$203	$198

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $235
Pull any copy: 1 in 13 (7.6% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 9
Cost of those boxes: $4,241
Boxes for 95% chance: 37
Cost at 95%: $17,437

You'd spend about $4,241 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Thanos, the Mad Titan, vs $235 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $471

EV $484

Median $453

$0$129$258$388$517$646$775

Distribution of total card value per box across 31-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 44.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 40.2%
Typical box (median): $453
Average box (EV): $483
Unlucky box (10th pct): $320
Lucky box (90th pct): $647
God box (99th pct): $1,775

Roughly 44% of boxes return more than the $471 you paid. You'd need to open about 6 boxes (~$2,828) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $453) is $30.85 below the $484 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $484 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Boosterfunfoil

$18638%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$79.1216%

Non Foil Source Material

$58.5412%

Boosterfun

$48.5210%

Boosterfun Commander

$48.4810%

Foil Source Materialfoil

$42.259%

Foil Uncommon Commanderfoil

$14.883%

Foil Common Commanderfoil

$4.091%

Foil C U Scenefoil

$0.810%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$0.790%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $484 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Thanos, the Mad Titan#400	Borderless	$235	0.079	3.8%	$18.60
The Mind Stone#386	Borderless	$1,468	0.012	3.6%	$17.62
Doctor Doom#394	Poster	$147	0.079	2.4%	$11.60
Roaming Throne#99	Borderless	$51.42	0.209	2.2%	$10.75
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu#396	Borderless	$106	0.079	1.7%	$8.35
The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl#371	Borderless	$31.36	0.258	1.7%	$8.10
Ultron, Artificial Malevolence#401	Borderless	$98.00	0.079	1.6%	$7.75
Bruce Banner // The Incredible Hulk#390	Borderless	$97.00	0.079	1.6%	$7.67
Teferi's Protection#51	Borderless	$36.50	0.209	1.6%	$7.63
Captain America, Super-Soldier#387	Poster	$94.51	0.079	1.5%	$7.48
Tony Stark // The Invincible Iron Man#392	Borderless	$90.00	0.079	1.5%	$7.12
King T'Challa // Black Panther, Hope Enduring#399	Borderless	$76.49	0.079	1.3%	$6.05
Sword of Fire and Ice#100	Borderless	$27.50	0.209	1.2%	$5.75
Archangel of Thune#41	Borderless	$27.43	0.209	1.2%	$5.73
Daredevil, Man Without Fear#398	Borderless	$71.01	0.079	1.2%	$5.62
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk#388	Borderless	$69.64	0.079	1.1%	$5.51
Wolverine, Best There Is#97	Borderless	$24.99	0.209	1.1%	$5.22
Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.#389	Borderless	$59.86	0.079	1.0%	$4.74
The Mind Stone#21	—	$95.93	0.045	0.9%	$4.32
Simulacrum Synthesizer#61	Borderless	$20.63	0.209	0.9%	$4.31
Namor the Sub-Mariner#391	Poster	$53.93	0.079	0.9%	$4.27
Captain America, First Avenger#88	Borderless	$19.58	0.209	0.8%	$4.09
Black Widow, Super Spy#393	Borderless	$50.00	0.079	0.8%	$3.96
Doctor Doom, Unrivaled#654	—	$83.01	0.045	0.8%	$3.74
Devil Dinosaur#719	—	$41.15	0.090	0.8%	$3.71
Molecule Man#292	Extended art	$65.96	0.055	0.8%	$3.65
The Astonishing Ant-Man#397	Borderless	$39.74	0.079	0.7%	$3.14
Mjölnir, Hammer of Thor#303	Showcase	$26.06	0.112	0.6%	$2.92
Thor, God of Thunder#369	Borderless	$29.96	0.096	0.6%	$2.89
Elektra, Daughter of the Hand#395	Borderless	$36.46	0.079	0.6%	$2.88
Loki, Lord of Misrule#628	—	$57.71	0.045	0.5%	$2.60
Ultron the Annihilator#668	—	$57.68	0.045	0.5%	$2.60
Ravenous Tyrannosaurus#93	Borderless	$12.28	0.209	0.5%	$2.57
Doctor Doom#365	Borderless	$26.45	0.096	0.5%	$2.55
Iron Man, Titan of Innovation#91	Borderless	$11.49	0.209	0.5%	$2.40