MSH·Released Jun 26, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Marvel Super Heroes collector booster EV
Verdict
Bad bet
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$171
$257
$291
$398
$461
Floor (10%)
$171
Typical
$257
Average (EV)
$291
Lucky (90%)
$398
Box price
$461
The average box ($291) is $33.20 above a typical box ($257) — 11%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
96%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
4%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $461
EV $291 · 64th
Median $257
$0$125$250$375$500$625$750
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 64th percentile — 64% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
Marvel Super Heroes collector boosterbox TCG low $461, expected value $291, median box $257, 4% break-even, −37% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Marvel Super Heroes collector booster box is $291 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $257.
What are the odds of breaking even on Marvel Super Heroes collector boosters?
About 4% of simulated Marvel Super Heroes collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($461). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Marvel Super Heroes sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $291 vs sealed $461 (−37% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$106 (-26.6%) · Box −$9.00 (-1.9%) over 3m · ROI −21.2%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$461
Standalone pack listing
$39.92
Implied pack (box / packs)
$38.42
EV per pack
$24.21
$291 / box
Return opening box
−37%
Return buying packs at listing
−39%
The box is the better deal per pack ($38.42 vs $39.92 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −37% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$1,635
Pull any copy
1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
58
Cost of those boxes
$26,738
Boxes for 95% chance
249
Cost at 95%
$114,789
You'd spend about $26,738 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Mind Stone, vs $1,635 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.