Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($303) is $57.91 above a typical box ($245) — 19%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
7%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Avatar: The Last Airbender collector boosterbox TCG low $465, expected value $303, median box $245, 7% break-even, −35% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$3.41 (1.1%) · Box +$72.41 (18.4%) over 3m · ROI −11.2%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($38.75 vs $39.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −35% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $53,939 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Avatar Aang // Aang, Master of Elements, vs $4,029 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 137.30 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 22.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 16.40 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 4.25 cards | 98.6% | 1 in 2 |
| Neon ink | 0.054 cards | 5.3% | 1 in 19 |
| Headliner | 0.0060 cards | 0.6% | 1 in 170 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference