TLA·Released Nov 21, 2025·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Avatar: The Last Airbender

Verdict

Bad bet

Box price (TCG low)

$379

$31.61 / pack

Expected value

$302

$25.20 / pack

Net EV per box

−$76.89

Return on a box

−20.3%

Chance to break even

10.4%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Avatar Aang // Aang, Master of Elements

Raised foil

Single price: $3,600
Share of box EV: 7.1%
Pull any copy: 1 in 170 (0.6% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 116 boxes ($43,998)

Chasing Avatar Aang // Aang, Master of Elements by cracking boxes means spending about $43,998for a 50/50 shot — vs $3,600 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	137.30 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	22.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	16.40 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Showcase	4.25 cards	98.6%	1 in 2
Neon ink	0.05 cards	5.3%	1 in 19
Raised foil	0.006 cards	0.6%	1 in 170

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −20%
Net EV per box: −$76.89
Chance to break even: 10%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$379Box price

$165Floor (10%)

$246Typical

$302Average (EV)

$383Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $165
Typical: $246
Average (EV): $302
Lucky (90%): $383

The average box ($302) is $56.04 above a typical box ($246) — 19%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $379
Standalone pack listing: $35.00
Implied pack (box / packs): $31.61
EV per pack: $25.20; $302 / box
Return opening box: −20%
Return buying packs at listing: −28%

The box is the better deal per pack ($31.61 vs $35.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −20% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$302	$304(+$1.31)
Variance	101486	114770(+13.1%)
Std deviation	$319	$339

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $3,600
Pull any copy: 1 in 170 (0.6% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 116
Cost of those boxes: $43,998
Boxes for 95% chance: 498
Cost at 95%: $188,886

You'd spend about $43,998 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Avatar Aang // Aang, Master of Elements, vs $3,600 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $379

EV $302

Median $246

$0$110$220$330$440$550$660

Distribution of total card value per box across 33-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 10.4%
P(box ≥ expected value): 25.7%
Typical box (median): $246
Average box (EV): $304
Unlucky box (10th pct): $165
Lucky box (90th pct): $383
God box (99th pct): $1,172

Roughly 10% of boxes return more than the $379 you paid. You'd need to open about 28 boxes (~$10,620) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $246) is $56.04 below the $302 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $302 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Boosterfunfoil

$11438%

Foil Tle Rare/Mythicfoil

$43.9715%

Non Foil Source Material

$43.4714%

Non Foil Boosterfun

$43.3814%

Foil Source Materialfoil

$22.477%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$22.007%

Foil Tle Scene Uncommonfoil

$10.974%

Foil Tle Commonfoil

$1.270%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.390%

Foil Landfoil

$0.300%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$0.260%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $302 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Avatar Aang // Aang, Master of Elements#363	Raised foil	$3,600	6.01e-3	7.1%	$21.62
The Great Henge#41	Borderless	$71.36	0.197	4.6%	$14.04
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian#320	Borderless	$96.99	0.129	4.1%	$12.48
Toph, the First Metalbender#362	Neon ink	$858	0.014	3.8%	$11.60
Badgermole Cub#326	Borderless	$88.35	0.129	3.8%	$11.37
Teferi's Protection#7	Borderless	$51.19	0.197	3.3%	$10.07
Force of Negation#13	Borderless	$50.32	0.197	3.3%	$9.90
Toph, Earthbending Master#209	Extended art	$46.08	0.197	3.0%	$9.07
Mystic Remora#16	Borderless	$41.00	0.197	2.7%	$8.07
Aang, Swift Savior // Aang and La, Ocean's Fury#359	Neon ink	$534	0.014	2.4%	$7.22
The Cabbage Merchant#203	Extended art	$26.99	0.246	2.2%	$6.65
Katara, the Fearless#361	Neon ink	$457	0.014	2.0%	$6.17
Fire Lord Zuko#360	Neon ink	$440	0.014	2.0%	$5.95
Redirect Lightning#343	Showcase	$21.30	0.257	1.8%	$5.48
Ozai, the Phoenix King#311	Borderless	$42.00	0.129	1.8%	$5.40
Fire Lord Azula#313	Borderless	$20.01	0.257	1.7%	$5.15
Earthbending Student#249	—	$19.99	0.240	1.6%	$4.80
Badgermole Cub#167	—	$55.00	0.086	1.6%	$4.71
The Walls of Ba Sing Se#329	Borderless	$34.31	0.129	1.5%	$4.41
Avatar Kyoshi, Earthbender#201	Extended art	$19.96	0.197	1.3%	$3.93
Sakashima of a Thousand Faces#18	Borderless	$19.85	0.197	1.3%	$3.90
The Cabbage Merchant#134	—	$24.00	0.147	1.2%	$3.53
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian#78	—	$39.50	0.086	1.1%	$3.39
Avatar Roku, Firebender#191	Extended art	$16.34	0.197	1.1%	$3.22
Katara, Waterbending Master#180	Extended art	$15.90	0.197	1.0%	$3.13
Fire Lord Azula#334	Borderless	$11.97	0.257	1.0%	$3.08
Sozin's Comet#309	Borderless	$23.17	0.129	1.0%	$2.98
Toph, Earthbending Master#145	—	$40.49	0.074	1.0%	$2.98
Fated Firepower#297	Borderless	$21.53	0.129	0.9%	$2.77
Aang, Swift Savior // Aang and La, Ocean's Fury#298	Borderless	$10.00	0.257	0.9%	$2.57
Heroic Intervention#43	Borderless	$12.99	0.197	0.8%	$2.56
Zuko, Firebending Master#200	Extended art	$12.80	0.197	0.8%	$2.52
Bloodchief Ascension#23	Borderless	$12.42	0.197	0.8%	$2.44
Sundial of the Infinite#55	Borderless	$12.04	0.197	0.8%	$2.37
Longshot, Rebel Bowman#120	—	$9.45	0.240	0.7%	$2.27