MH3·Released Jun 14, 2024·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
Modern Horizons 3 collector booster EV
Verdict
Bad bet
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$346
$470
$604
$672
$829
Floor (10%)
$346
Typical
$470
Average (EV)
$604
Lucky (90%)
$672
Box price
$829
The average box ($604) is $134 above a typical box ($470) — 22%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
93%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
7%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $829
EV $604
Median $470
$0$317$633$950$1,267$1,583$1,900
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
Modern Horizons 3 collector boosterbox TCG low $829, expected value $604, median box $470, 7% break-even, −27% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Modern Horizons 3 collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Modern Horizons 3 collector booster box is $604 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $470.
What are the odds of breaking even on Modern Horizons 3 collector boosters?
About 7% of simulated Modern Horizons 3 collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($829). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Modern Horizons 3 sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $604 vs sealed $829 (−27% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$50.65 (9.2%) · Box +$155 (22.9%) over 3m · ROI −9.2%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$829
Standalone pack listing
$86.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$69.08
EV per pack
$50.35
$604 / box
Return opening box
−27%
Return buying packs at listing
−42%
The box is the better deal per pack ($69.08 vs $86.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −27% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$2,335
Pull any copy
1 in 42 (2.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
29
Cost of those boxes
$24,041
Boxes for 95% chance
124
Cost at 95%
$102,796
You'd spend about $24,041 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ulamog, the Defiler, vs $2,335 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.