VOW·Released Nov 19, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad: Crimson Vow

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$247

$20.58 / pack

Expected value

$76.50

$6.38 / pack

Net EV per box

−$170

Return on a box

−69.0%

Chance to break even

0.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

∞

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Shattered Sanctum

Borderless

Single price: $11.25
Share of box EV: 5.1%
Pull any copy: 1 in 3 (29.1% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 2 boxes ($494)

Chasing Shattered Sanctum by cracking boxes means spending about $494for a 50/50 shot — vs $11.25 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	84.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	47.93 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	30.49 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	17.58 cards	100.0%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −69%
Net EV per box: −$170
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$247Box price

$55.47Floor (10%)

$75.28Typical

$76.50Average (EV)

$99.05Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $55.47
Typical: $75.28
Average (EV): $76.50
Lucky (90%): $99.05

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $247
Standalone pack listing: $2,000
Implied pack (box / packs): $20.58
EV per pack: $6.38; $76.50 / box
Return opening box: −69%
Return buying packs at listing: −100%

The box is the better deal per pack ($20.58 vs $2,000 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −69% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$76.50	$76.53(+$0.02)
Variance	294	292(-0.7%)
Std deviation	$17.15	$17.09

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $11.25
Pull any copy: 1 in 3 (29.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 2
Cost of those boxes: $494
Boxes for 95% chance: 8
Cost at 95%: $1,976

You'd spend about $494 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Shattered Sanctum, vs $11.25 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $247

EV $76.50

Median $75.28

$0$67$133$200$267$333$400

Distribution of total card value per box across 20-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 47.1%
Typical box (median): $75.28
Average box (EV): $76.53
Unlucky box (10th pct): $55.47
Lucky box (90th pct): $99.05
God box (99th pct): $121

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $247 you paid. A typical box (median $75.28) is $1.22 below the $76.50 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $76.50 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Rare/Mythic Showcasefoil

$20.4827%

Extended Commander

$11.9016%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$10.1613%

Rare/Mythic Showcase

$8.7511%

Extended Rare/Mythic

$8.2911%

Rare/Mythic Dracula

$8.1211%

Foil Basicfoil

$5.057%

Foil Commonfoil

$3.625%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$0.120%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $76.50 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Shattered Sanctum#283	Borderless	$11.25	0.345	5.1%	$3.88
Deathcap Glade#281	Borderless	$10.98	0.345	4.9%	$3.78
Edgar, Charmed Groom // Edgar Markov's Coffin#341	Borderless	$4.25	0.773	4.3%	$3.28
Sorin the Mirthless#297	Showcase	$18.20	0.172	4.1%	$3.14
Toxrill, the Corrosive#321	Showcase	$15.00	0.172	3.4%	$2.58
Stormcarved Coast#284	Borderless	$7.49	0.345	3.4%	$2.58
Dreamroot Cascade#282	Borderless	$7.49	0.345	3.4%	$2.58
Olivia, Crimson Bride#315	Showcase	$14.97	0.172	3.4%	$2.58
Olivia, Crimson Bride#343	Borderless	$6.50	0.386	3.3%	$2.51
Sorin the Mirthless#337	Borderless	$5.76	0.386	2.9%	$2.23
Sundown Pass#285	Borderless	$6.30	0.345	2.8%	$2.17
Kessig Flamebreather#164	—	$4.50	0.480	2.8%	$2.16
Wedding Ring#70	Extended art	$12.28	0.171	2.8%	$2.11
Hullbreaker Horror#359	Extended art	$4.60	0.402	2.4%	$1.85
Hollowhenge Overlord#74	Extended art	$5.09	0.343	2.3%	$1.75
Voldaren Bloodcaster // Bloodbat Summoner#338	Borderless	$2.20	0.773	2.2%	$1.70
Shadowgrange Archfiend#60	Extended art	$4.89	0.343	2.2%	$1.68
Henrika Domnathi // Henrika, Infernal Seer#335	Borderless	$3.99	0.386	2.0%	$1.54
Welcoming Vampire#287	Showcase	$4.00	0.345	1.8%	$1.38
Umbris, Fear Manifest#76	Extended art	$8.00	0.171	1.8%	$1.37
Toxrill, the Corrosive#132	—	$16.00	0.081	1.7%	$1.30
Necroduality#362	Extended art	$6.10	0.201	1.6%	$1.23
Swamp#273	Showcase	$1.00	1.200	1.6%	$1.20
Swamp#272	Showcase	$0.99	1.200	1.6%	$1.19
Hallowed Haunting#349	Extended art	$5.82	0.201	1.5%	$1.17
Chandra, Dressed to Kill#279	Borderless	$6.59	0.172	1.5%	$1.14
Headless Rider#372	Extended art	$2.56	0.402	1.3%	$1.03
Cultivator Colossus#386	Extended art	$4.10	0.201	1.1%	$0.82
Hullbreaker Horror#63	—	$4.99	0.162	1.1%	$0.81
Splendid Reclamation#393	Extended art	$2.00	0.402	1.1%	$0.80
Voice of the Blessed#354	Extended art	$1.92	0.402	1.0%	$0.77
Falkenrath Forebear#334	Borderless	$0.95	0.773	1.0%	$0.73
Cemetery Prowler#385	Extended art	$3.59	0.201	0.9%	$0.72
Glorious Sunrise#388	Extended art	$1.74	0.402	0.9%	$0.70
Deathcap Glade#261	—	$4.30	0.162	0.9%	$0.70