Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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  2. /Innistrad: Crimson Vow
VOW·Released Nov 19, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$300
$25.00/pack
Expected value
$81.83
$6.82/pack
Net EV
−$218
Break-even
0.0%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −73%

Sorin the Mirthless

$20.23 · 1 in 6 · 16% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$59.80
$80.63
$81.83
$107
$300
Floor (10%)
$59.80
Typical
$80.63
Average (EV)
$81.83
Lucky (90%)
$107
Box price
$300

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

100%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

0%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $300
EV $81.83 · 52nd
Median $80.63
$0$80$160$240$320$400$480

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 52nd percentile — 52% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boosterbox TCG low $300, expected value $81.83, median box $80.63, 0% break-even, −73% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector booster box is $81.83 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $80.63.
What are the odds of breaking even on Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boosters?
About 0% of simulated Innistrad: Crimson Vow collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($300). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Innistrad: Crimson Vow sealed?
Money pit. EV is $81.83 vs sealed $300 (−73% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$2.83 (3.6%) · Box +$63.98 (25.7%) over 3m · ROI −5.6%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$300
Standalone pack listing
$2,000
Implied pack (box / packs)
$25.00
EV per pack
$6.82
$81.83 / box
Return opening box
−73%
Return buying packs at listing
−100%

The box is the better deal per pack ($25.00 vs $2,000 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −73% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$12.00
Pull any copy
1 in 3 (29.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
2
Cost of those boxes
$600
Boxes for 95% chance
8
Cost at 95%
$2,400

You'd spend about $600 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Shattered Sanctum, vs $12.00 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard84.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase48.25 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art30.49 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless17.26 cards100.0%1 in 2

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference