IKO·Released Apr 24, 2020·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$689

$57.42 / pack

Expected value

$378

$31.48 / pack

Net EV per box

−$311

Return on a box

−45.2%

Chance to break even

0.4%

Boxes for 95% one win

699

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Ketria Triome

Showcase

Single price: $42.40
Share of box EV: 11.7%
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (64.8% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 1 boxes ($689)

Chasing Ketria Triome by cracking boxes means spending about $689for a 50/50 shot — vs $42.40 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	104.67 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	46.43 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	15.33 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Borderless	13.57 cards	100.0%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −45%
Net EV per box: −$311
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$689Box price

$256Floor (10%)

$370Typical

$378Average (EV)

$512Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $256
Typical: $370
Average (EV): $378
Lucky (90%): $512

The average box ($378) is $7.79 above a typical box ($370) — 2%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $689
Standalone pack listing: $39.99
Implied pack (box / packs): $57.42
EV per pack: $31.48; $378 / box
Return opening box: −45%
Return buying packs at listing: −21%

Standalone packs list at $39.99 vs $57.42 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $31.48/pack (−21% return either way).

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$378	$378(+$0.40)
Variance	10136	10079(-0.6%)
Std deviation	$101	$100

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $42.40
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (64.8% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 1
Cost of those boxes: $689
Boxes for 95% chance: 1
Cost at 95%: $689

You'd spend about $689 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ketria Triome, vs $42.40 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $689

EV $378

Median $370

$0$192$383$575$767$958$1,150

Distribution of total card value per box across 23-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.4%
P(box ≥ expected value): 46.6%
Typical box (median): $370
Average box (EV): $378
Unlucky box (10th pct): $256
Lucky box (90th pct): $512
God box (99th pct): $647

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $689 you paid. You'd need to open about 699 boxes (~$481,611) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $370) is $7.79 below the $378 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $378 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Rare/Mythic Showcase

$75.8320%

Godzilla

$75.6420%

Rare/Mythic Foilfoil

$54.7514%

Godzilla Foilfoil

$43.7412%

Extended Art

$41.5311%

Foil Showcase Anyfoil

$41.1011%

Commander

$40.8811%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$2.001%

Foil Commonfoil

$1.280%

Foil Basicfoil

$1.000%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $378 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Ketria Triome#310	Showcase	$42.40	1.045	11.7%	$44.29
Zagoth Triome#313	Showcase	$41.68	1.045	11.5%	$43.54
Savai Triome#312	Showcase	$38.25	1.045	10.6%	$39.96
Indatha Triome#309	Showcase	$37.34	1.045	10.3%	$39.01
Raugrin Triome#311	Showcase	$33.99	1.045	9.4%	$35.51
Illuna, Apex of Wishes#379	Borderless	$78.71	0.346	7.2%	$27.25
The Ozolith#362	Extended art	$75.25	0.330	6.6%	$24.81
Luminous Broodmoth#371	Borderless	$49.00	0.346	4.5%	$16.96
Yidaro, Wandering Monster#375	Borderless	$20.00	0.692	3.7%	$13.85
Titanoth Rex#377	Borderless	$9.01	1.385	3.3%	$12.48
Nethroi, Apex of Death#380	Borderless	$33.82	0.346	3.1%	$11.71
Deflecting Swat#50	—	$61.00	0.174	2.8%	$10.61
Fierce Guardianship#35	—	$51.63	0.174	2.4%	$8.98
The Ozolith#237	—	$62.00	0.143	2.4%	$8.88
Brokkos, Apex of Forever#378	Borderless	$23.47	0.346	2.2%	$8.13
Nethroi, Apex of Death#303	Showcase	$13.02	0.522	1.8%	$6.80
Drannith Magistrate#314	Extended art	$15.66	0.330	1.4%	$5.16
Void Beckoner#373	Borderless	$3.30	1.385	1.2%	$4.57
Gyruda, Doom of Depths#384	Borderless	$6.00	0.692	1.1%	$4.15
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy#338	Extended art	$24.36	0.165	1.1%	$4.02
Vadrok, Apex of Thunder#383	Borderless	$11.00	0.346	1.0%	$3.81
Deadly Rollick#42	—	$21.66	0.174	1.0%	$3.77
Flawless Maneuver#26	—	$20.00	0.174	0.9%	$3.48
Zagoth Triome#259	—	$23.00	0.143	0.9%	$3.30
Snapdax, Apex of the Hunt#381	Borderless	$9.00	0.346	0.8%	$3.12
Brokkos, Apex of Forever#299	Showcase	$5.50	0.522	0.8%	$2.87
Savai Triome#253	—	$18.50	0.143	0.7%	$2.65
Sea-Dasher Octopus#286	Showcase	$2.50	1.045	0.7%	$2.61
Twinning Staff#70	—	$15.00	0.174	0.7%	$2.61
Gemrazer#376	Borderless	$3.75	0.692	0.7%	$2.60
Vivien, Monsters' Advocate#277	Borderless	$4.95	0.522	0.7%	$2.59
Indatha Triome#248	—	$18.00	0.143	0.7%	$2.58
Everquill Phoenix#374	Borderless	$3.60	0.692	0.7%	$2.49
Ketria Triome#250	—	$16.84	0.143	0.6%	$2.41
Raugrin Triome#251	—	$15.00	0.143	0.6%	$2.15