DFT·Released Feb 14, 2025·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Aetherdrift

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$260

$21.67 / pack

Expected value

$108

$8.97 / pack

Net EV per box

−$152

Return on a box

−58.6%

Chance to break even

5.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Chrome Mox

Borderless

Single price: $221
Share of box EV: 10.3%
Pull any copy: 1 in 20 (4.9% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 14 boxes ($3,640)

Chasing Chrome Mox by cracking boxes means spending about $3,640for a 50/50 shot — vs $221 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	108.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	52.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	18.80 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Showcase	1.08 cards	66.0%	1 in 2
Fracture foil	0.12 cards	11.3%	1 in 9

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −59%
Net EV per box: −$152
Chance to break even: 5%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$260Box price

$57.97Floor (10%)

$94.09Typical

$108Average (EV)

$158Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $57.97
Typical: $94.09
Average (EV): $108
Lucky (90%): $158

The average box ($108) is $13.60 above a typical box ($94.09) — 13%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $260
Standalone pack listing: $19.99
Implied pack (box / packs): $21.67
EV per pack: $8.97; $108 / box
Return opening box: −59%
Return buying packs at listing: −55%

Standalone packs list at $19.99 vs $21.67 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $8.97/pack (−55% return either way).

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$108	$108(+$0.21)
Variance	3591	3722(+3.6%)
Std deviation	$59.92	$61.00

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $221
Pull any copy: 1 in 20 (4.9% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 14
Cost of those boxes: $3,640
Boxes for 95% chance: 58
Cost at 95%: $15,080

You'd spend about $3,640 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Chrome Mox, vs $221 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $260

EV $108

Median $94.09

$0$70$140$210$280$350$420

Distribution of total card value per box across 21-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 5.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 35.2%
Typical box (median): $94.09
Average box (EV): $108
Unlucky box (10th pct): $57.97
Lucky box (90th pct): $158
God box (99th pct): $344

Roughly 5% of boxes return more than the $260 you paid. You'd need to open about 58 boxes (~$15,080) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $94.09) is $13.60 below the $108 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $108 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Booster Funfoil

$52.1948%

Booster Fun

$29.6828%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$18.4417%

Showcase Commander

$6.416%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$0.911%

Foil Showcase Commanderfoil

$0.050%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $108 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Chrome Mox#92	Borderless	$221	0.050	10.3%	$11.13
Riverpyre Verge#372	Borderless	$19.78	0.497	9.1%	$9.83
Monument to Endurance#394	Extended art	$15.13	0.497	7.0%	$7.52
Wastewood Verge#374	Borderless	$8.00	0.497	3.7%	$3.98
Bleachbone Verge#371	Borderless	$7.79	0.497	3.6%	$3.87
Riverpyre Verge#260	—	$20.00	0.171	3.2%	$3.43
Renewed Solidarity#23	Extended art	$4.79	0.632	2.8%	$3.03
Sunbillow Verge#373	Borderless	$5.84	0.497	2.7%	$2.90
Willowrush Verge#375	Borderless	$5.23	0.497	2.4%	$2.60
Monument to Endurance#237	—	$12.30	0.171	2.0%	$2.11
Chandra, Spark Hunter#401	Showcase	$17.02	0.108	1.7%	$1.84
Chandra's Ignition#89	Borderless	$35.41	0.050	1.7%	$1.78
Radiant Lotus#406	Showcase	$16.32	0.108	1.6%	$1.76
Wastewood Verge#268	—	$10.00	0.171	1.6%	$1.71
The Aetherspark#231	—	$19.46	0.086	1.5%	$1.67
Loot, the Pathfinder#404	Showcase	$14.95	0.108	1.5%	$1.61
Stridehangar Automaton#35	Extended art	$2.50	0.632	1.5%	$1.58
Radiant Lotus#416	Fracture foil	$130	0.012	1.4%	$1.56
Bleachbone Verge#250	—	$9.00	0.171	1.4%	$1.54
Sunbillow Verge#264	—	$8.47	0.171	1.3%	$1.45
Bone Miser#87	Borderless	$26.58	0.050	1.2%	$1.34
Howlsquad Heavy#342	Borderless	$2.64	0.497	1.2%	$1.31
Willowrush Verge#270	—	$6.99	0.171	1.1%	$1.20
Loot, the Pathfinder#414	Fracture foil	$98.90	0.012	1.1%	$1.19
Full Throttle#386	Extended art	$2.12	0.497	1.0%	$1.05
Brightglass Gearhulk#348	Borderless	$3.79	0.249	0.9%	$0.94
Unstoppable Plan#382	Extended art	$1.85	0.497	0.9%	$0.92
Cursecloth Wrappings#400	Showcase	$8.50	0.108	0.9%	$0.92
Mu Yanling, Wind Rider#399	Showcase	$8.33	0.108	0.8%	$0.90
Riptide Gearhulk#353	Borderless	$3.59	0.249	0.8%	$0.89
Thoughtcast#85	Borderless	$16.88	0.050	0.8%	$0.85
Full Throttle#127	—	$4.49	0.171	0.7%	$0.77
Ketramose, the New Dawn#350	Borderless	$2.99	0.249	0.7%	$0.74
Adaptive Omnitool#32	Extended art	$1.15	0.632	0.7%	$0.73
Chandra, Spark Hunter#411	Fracture foil	$60.26	0.012	0.7%	$0.72