Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($152) is $57.96 above a typical box ($94.30) — 38%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
96%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
4%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 87th percentile — 87% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Aetherdrift collector boosterbox TCG low $300, expected value $152, median box $94.30, 4% break-even, −49% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$17.21 (12.7%) · Box +$45.00 (17.6%) over 3m · ROI −2.2%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $24.91 vs $25.00 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $12.69/pack (−49% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $8,700 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Aetherspark, vs $1,875 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 52.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.80 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 1.08 cards | 66.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Fracture foil | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Serialized | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference