Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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DFT·Released Feb 14, 2025·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Aetherdrift collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$315
$26.25/pack
Expected value
$134
$11.17/pack
Net EV
−$181
Break-even
4.6%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −57%

The Aetherspark

$1,033 · 1 in 42 · 2% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$60.21
$96.37
$134
$173
$315
Floor (10%)
$60.21
Typical
$96.37
Average (EV)
$134
Lucky (90%)
$173
Box price
$315

The average box ($134) is $37.62 above a typical box ($96.37) — 28%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

96%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

4%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $315
EV $134
Median $96.37
$0$87$173$260$347$433$520

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.

Key facts

Aetherdrift collector boosterbox TCG low $315, expected value $134, median box $96.37, 5% break-even, −57% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Aetherdrift collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Aetherdrift collector booster box is $134 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $96.37.
What are the odds of breaking even on Aetherdrift collector boosters?
About 5% of simulated Aetherdrift collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($315). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Aetherdrift sealed?
Money pit. EV is $134 vs sealed $315 (−57% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV −$11.61 (-8.0%) · Box +$84.99 (37.0%) over 3m · ROI −20.8%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$315
Standalone pack listing
$21.99
Implied pack (box / packs)
$26.25
EV per pack
$11.17
$134 / box
Return opening box
−57%
Return buying packs at listing
−49%

Standalone packs list at $21.99 vs $26.25 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $11.17/pack (−49% return either way).

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$1,033
Pull any copy
1 in 42 (2.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
29
Cost of those boxes
$9,135
Boxes for 95% chance
124
Cost at 95%
$39,059

You'd spend about $9,135 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Aetherspark, vs $1,033 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard108.00 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless52.00 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art18.80 cards100.0%1 in 2
Showcase1.08 cards66.0%1 in 2
Fracture foil0.120 cards11.3%1 in 9
Serialized0.024 cards2.4%1 in 42

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference