MOM·Released Apr 21, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

March of the Machine

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$725

$60.42 / pack

Expected value

$292

$24.36 / pack

Net EV per box

−$433

Return on a box

−59.7%

Chance to break even

6.5%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings

Serialized

Single price: $1,976
Share of box EV: 8.1%
Pull any copy: 1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 58 boxes ($42,050)

Chasing Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings by cracking boxes means spending about $42,050for a 50/50 shot — vs $1,976 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	118.74 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	30.06 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	26.30 cards	100.0%	Every time
Halo foil	4.14 cards	98.4%	1 in 2
Borderless	0.57 cards	43.7%	1 in 2
Serialized	0.18 cards	16.5%	1 in 6

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −60%
Net EV per box: −$433
Chance to break even: 7%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$725Box price

$125Floor (10%)

$192Typical

$292Average (EV)

$465Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $125
Typical: $192
Average (EV): $292
Lucky (90%): $465

The average box ($292) is $101 above a typical box ($192) — 34%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $725
Standalone pack listing: $60.43
Implied pack (box / packs): $60.42
EV per pack: $24.36; $292 / box
Return opening box: −60%
Return buying packs at listing: −60%

The box is the better deal per pack ($60.42 vs $60.43 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −60% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$292	$293(+$0.99)
Variance	122275	124576(+1.9%)
Std deviation	$350	$353

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $1,976
Pull any copy: 1 in 84 (1.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 58
Cost of those boxes: $42,050
Boxes for 95% chance: 249
Cost at 95%: $180,525

You'd spend about $42,050 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings, vs $1,976 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $725

EV $292

Median $192

$0$200$400$600$800$1,000$1,200

Distribution of total card value per box across 24-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 6.5%
P(box ≥ expected value): 18.1%
Typical box (median): $192
Average box (EV): $293
Unlucky box (10th pct): $125
Lucky box (90th pct): $465
God box (99th pct): $2,134

Roughly 6% of boxes return more than the $725 you paid. You'd need to open about 45 boxes (~$32,625) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $192) is $101 below the $292 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $292 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Double Foil Praetor Serializedfoil

$77.8827%

Foil Showcasefoil

$32.3711%

Rare/Mythic Mul Traditionalfoil

$29.7310%

Extended Art Commander Jumpstart

$28.5910%

Showcase Wild

$27.449%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$26.399%

Rare/Mythic Mul Halofoil

$23.938%

Rare/Mythic Mul Serializedfoil

$18.346%

Uncommon Mul Serializedfoil

$11.844%

Rare/Mythic Mul Etchedfoil

$9.503%

Uncommon Mul Halofoil

$2.971%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$1.581%

Foil Commonfoil

$1.420%

Foil Fullart Basicfoil

$0.300%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $292 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings#338	Serialized	$1,976	0.012	8.1%	$23.71
Sheoldred // The True Scriptures#340	Serialized	$1,403	0.012	5.8%	$16.83
Jin-Gitaxias // The Great Synthesis#339	Serialized	$1,236	0.012	5.1%	$14.83
Urabrask // The Great Work#341	Serialized	$1,007	0.012	4.1%	$12.09
Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness#298	Showcase	$30.00	0.383	3.9%	$11.49
Vorinclex // The Grand Evolution#342	Serialized	$868	0.012	3.6%	$10.42
Faerie Mastermind#352	Extended art	$19.99	0.383	2.6%	$7.66
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer#21	Showcase	$58.00	0.120	2.4%	$6.96
Etali, Primal Conqueror // Etali, Primal Sickness#137	—	$35.50	0.156	1.9%	$5.53
Ozolith, the Shattered Spire#372	Extended art	$12.59	0.383	1.6%	$4.82
Sheoldred // The True Scriptures#297	Showcase	$24.25	0.191	1.6%	$4.64
Tribute to the World Tree#373	Extended art	$12.00	0.383	1.6%	$4.60
Breach the Multiverse#358	Extended art	$11.99	0.383	1.6%	$4.59
Nesting Dovehawk#104	Extended art	$18.90	0.226	1.5%	$4.28
Urabrask // The Great Work#299	Showcase	$20.56	0.191	1.3%	$3.94
Uncivil Unrest#122	Extended art	$16.00	0.226	1.2%	$3.62
City on Fire#363	Extended art	$9.00	0.383	1.2%	$3.45
Sheoldred, Whispering One#16	Showcase	$27.99	0.120	1.1%	$3.36
Bitterthorn, Nissa's Animus#132	Extended art	$13.49	0.226	1.0%	$3.05
Atraxa, Praetors' Voice#33	Showcase	$23.00	0.120	0.9%	$2.76
Jin-Gitaxias // The Great Synthesis#294	Showcase	$14.00	0.191	0.9%	$2.68
Drana and Linvala#305	Showcase	$6.75	0.383	0.9%	$2.58
Hoarding Broodlord#360	Extended art	$6.54	0.383	0.9%	$2.50
Chivalric Alliance#98	Extended art	$10.99	0.226	0.9%	$2.49
Surrak and Goreclaw#380	Extended art	$10.82	0.226	0.8%	$2.45
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite#3	Showcase	$19.95	0.120	0.8%	$2.39
Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria#190	—	$14.50	0.156	0.8%	$2.26
Faerie Mastermind#58	—	$14.21	0.156	0.8%	$2.21
Filigree Vector#102	Extended art	$9.49	0.226	0.7%	$2.15
Tribute to the World Tree#211	—	$12.36	0.156	0.7%	$1.93
Sheoldred, Whispering One#146	Halo foil	$120	0.016	0.7%	$1.92
Ayara, First of Locthwain#13	Showcase	$8.00	0.240	0.7%	$1.92
Elesh Norn // The Argent Etchings#292	Showcase	$9.21	0.191	0.6%	$1.76
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer#151	Halo foil	$109	0.016	0.6%	$1.75
Aurelia, the Warleader#35	Showcase	$14.20	0.120	0.6%	$1.70