ONE·Released Feb 10, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Phyrexia: All Will Be One

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$975

$81.25 / pack

Expected value

$228

$18.99 / pack

Net EV per box

−$747

Return on a box

−76.6%

Chance to break even

0.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

37446

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Concept art

Single price: $169
Share of box EV: 16.3%
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (19.7% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 3 boxes ($2,925)

Chasing Sheoldred, the Apocalypse by cracking boxes means spending about $2,925for a 50/50 shot — vs $169 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	96.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	38.86 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	29.77 cards	100.0%	Every time
Compleat	11.77 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Borderless	2.27 cards	89.7%	1 in 2
Concept art	1.33 cards	73.4%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −77%
Net EV per box: −$747
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$975Box price

$109Floor (10%)

$202Typical

$228Average (EV)

$382Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $109
Typical: $202
Average (EV): $228
Lucky (90%): $382

The average box ($228) is $26.01 above a typical box ($202) — 11%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $975
Standalone pack listing: $108
Implied pack (box / packs): $81.25
EV per pack: $18.99; $228 / box
Return opening box: −77%
Return buying packs at listing: −82%

The box is the better deal per pack ($81.25 vs $108 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −77% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$228	$228(-$0.34)
Variance	12716	12807(+0.7%)
Std deviation	$113	$113

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $169
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (19.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 3
Cost of those boxes: $2,925
Boxes for 95% chance: 13
Cost at 95%: $12,675

You'd spend about $2,925 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, vs $169 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $975

EV $228

Median $202

$0$267$533$800$1,067$1,333$1,600

Distribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 40.3%
Typical box (median): $202
Average box (EV): $228
Unlucky box (10th pct): $109
Lucky box (90th pct): $382
God box (99th pct): $583

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $975 you paid. You'd need to open about 37446 boxes (~$36,509,850) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $202) is $26.01 below the $228 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $228 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Showcase Rare/Mythic

$61.2327%

Compleat Foilfoil

$59.1926%

Foil Showcase Rare/Mythicfoil

$49.9722%

Extended Commander Jumpstart

$28.9313%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$20.149%

Extended Rare/Mythic

$4.242%

Foil Basicfoil

$2.421%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$1.341%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.480%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $228 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse#435	Concept art	$169	0.220	16.3%	$37.07
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#406	Concept art	$66.96	0.220	6.5%	$14.70
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse#436	Concept art	$273	0.046	5.4%	$12.42
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines#416	Concept art	$54.30	0.220	5.2%	$11.92
Mondrak, Glory Dominus#299	Showcase	$44.37	0.220	4.3%	$9.74
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines#415	Borderless	$113	0.073	3.6%	$8.28
Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant#513	Concept art	$29.41	0.220	2.8%	$6.46
Solphim, Mayhem Dominus#312	Showcase	$28.00	0.220	2.7%	$6.15
Atraxa, Grand Unifier#316	Showcase	$26.76	0.220	2.6%	$5.88
Mondrak, Glory Dominus#424	Compleat	$70.13	0.068	2.1%	$4.79
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#407	Concept art	$102	0.046	2.0%	$4.64
Norn's Choirmaster#46	Extended art	$11.71	0.393	2.0%	$4.61
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines#419	Compleat	$200	0.023	2.0%	$4.55
Clever Concealment#43	Extended art	$9.99	0.393	1.7%	$3.93
Glistening Sphere#58	Extended art	$9.55	0.393	1.6%	$3.76
Atraxa, Grand Unifier#459	Compleat	$51.72	0.068	1.5%	$3.53
Mondrak, Glory Dominus#23	—	$40.69	0.086	1.5%	$3.49
Phyresis Outbreak#50	Extended art	$8.75	0.393	1.5%	$3.44
Norn's Decree#47	Extended art	$7.00	0.393	1.2%	$2.75
Solphim, Mayhem Dominus#449	Compleat	$39.70	0.068	1.2%	$2.71
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines#421	Concept art	$58.06	0.046	1.2%	$2.64
Contaminant Grafter#55	Extended art	$6.27	0.393	1.1%	$2.47
Phyrexian Obliterator#308	Showcase	$11.00	0.220	1.1%	$2.42
Solphim, Mayhem Dominus#150	—	$25.99	0.086	1.0%	$2.23
Zopandrel, Hunger Dominus#315	Showcase	$10.00	0.220	1.0%	$2.20
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines#298	Showcase	$29.95	0.073	1.0%	$2.19
Hexplate Wallbreaker#52	Extended art	$5.38	0.393	0.9%	$2.12
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines#10	—	$24.50	0.086	0.9%	$2.10
Drivnod, Carnage Dominus#305	Showcase	$9.00	0.220	0.9%	$1.98
Otharri, Suns' Glory#39	Extended art	$7.00	0.272	0.8%	$1.90
Tekuthal, Inquiry Dominus#302	Showcase	$8.34	0.220	0.8%	$1.83
Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant#514	Concept art	$39.21	0.046	0.8%	$1.78
Vraska, Betrayal's Sting#337	Showcase	$16.00	0.110	0.8%	$1.76
Urabrask, Heretic Praetor#468	Concept art	$7.76	0.220	0.7%	$1.70
Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines#414	Showcase	$22.45	0.073	0.7%	$1.64