Murders at Karlov Manor
Chase card spotlight
Undercity Sewers
Borderless
- Single price
- $54.59
- Share of box EV
- 11.3%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (31.1% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 2 boxes ($684)
Chasing Undercity Sewers by cracking boxes means spending about $684for a 50/50 shot — vs $54.59 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 39.05 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 28.02 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 4.93 cards | 99.3% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −48%
- Net EV per box
- −$163
- Chance to break even
- 1%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $105
- Typical
- $172
- Average (EV)
- $179
- Lucky (90%)
- $262
The average box ($179) is $6.73 above a typical box ($172) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $342
- Standalone pack listing
- $28.43
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $28.50
- EV per pack
- $14.93
- $179 / box
- Return opening box
- −48%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −47%
Standalone packs list at $28.43 vs $28.50 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $14.93/pack (−47% return either way).
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $179 | $179(-$0.27) |
| Variance | 3806 | 3783(-0.6%) |
| Std deviation | $61.69 | $61.51 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $54.59
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (31.1% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 2
- Cost of those boxes
- $684
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 7
- Cost at 95%
- $2,394
You'd spend about $684 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Undercity Sewers, vs $54.59 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 28-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 1.1%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 45.8%
- Typical box (median)
- $172
- Average box (EV)
- $179
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $105
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $262
- God box (99th pct)
- $345
Roughly 1% of boxes return more than the $342 you paid. You'd need to open about 267 boxes (~$91,325) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $172) is $6.73 below the $179 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $179 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $179 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undercity Sewers#332 | Borderless | $54.59 | 0.372 | 11.3% | $20.32 |
| Thundering Falls#331 | Borderless | $40.49 | 0.372 | 8.4% | $15.07 |
| Meticulous Archive#328 | Borderless | $38.00 | 0.372 | 7.9% | $14.14 |
| Underground Mortuary#333 | Borderless | $35.59 | 0.372 | 7.4% | $13.24 |
| Shadowy Backstreet#330 | Borderless | $30.69 | 0.372 | 6.4% | $11.42 |
| Hedge Maze#326 | Borderless | $29.32 | 0.372 | 6.1% | $10.91 |
| Elegant Parlor#325 | Borderless | $25.00 | 0.372 | 5.2% | $9.30 |
| Raucous Theater#329 | Borderless | $24.00 | 0.372 | 5.0% | $8.93 |
| Delney, Streetwise Lookout#337 | Showcase | $43.49 | 0.186 | 4.5% | $8.09 |
| Commercial District#324 | Borderless | $20.99 | 0.372 | 4.4% | $7.81 |
| Trouble in Pairs#326 | Extended art | $24.99 | 0.255 | 3.6% | $6.38 |
| Lush Portico#327 | Borderless | $17.00 | 0.372 | 3.5% | $6.33 |
| Field of the Dead#28 | Borderless | $83.21 | 0.065 | 3.0% | $5.40 |
| Victimize#23 | Borderless | $75.21 | 0.065 | 2.7% | $4.88 |
| Delney, Streetwise Lookout#378 | Showcase | $73.22 | 0.065 | 2.7% | $4.75 |
| Gamble#24 | Borderless | $71.82 | 0.065 | 2.6% | $4.66 |
| Warleader's Call#315 | Showcase | $11.81 | 0.372 | 2.5% | $4.40 |
| Archdruid's Charm#408 | Extended art | $7.00 | 0.517 | 2.0% | $3.62 |
| Ghostly Prison#19 | Borderless | $47.63 | 0.065 | 1.7% | $3.09 |
| Undercity Sewers#270 | — | $19.45 | 0.150 | 1.6% | $2.92 |
| Delney, Streetwise Lookout#12 | — | $37.00 | 0.075 | 1.5% | $2.78 |
| Thundering Falls#269 | — | $15.99 | 0.150 | 1.3% | $2.40 |
| Aurelia, the Law Above#317 | Showcase | $6.43 | 0.372 | 1.3% | $2.39 |
| Leyline of the Guildpact#418 | Extended art | $4.56 | 0.517 | 1.3% | $2.36 |
| Rakdos, Patron of Chaos#320 | Showcase | $10.90 | 0.186 | 1.1% | $2.03 |
| Underground Mortuary#271 | — | $13.50 | 0.150 | 1.1% | $2.03 |
| Meticulous Archive#264 | — | $12.45 | 0.150 | 1.0% | $1.87 |
| Hedge Maze#262 | — | $12.00 | 0.150 | 1.0% | $1.80 |
| Shadowy Backstreet#268 | — | $11.10 | 0.150 | 0.9% | $1.67 |
| Show and Tell#21 | Borderless | $24.72 | 0.065 | 0.9% | $1.60 |
| Raucous Theater#266 | — | $10.50 | 0.150 | 0.9% | $1.58 |
| Elegant Parlor#260 | — | $9.37 | 0.150 | 0.8% | $1.41 |
| Prisoner's Dilemma#344 | Extended art | $5.44 | 0.255 | 0.8% | $1.39 |
| Fabricate#20 | Borderless | $18.82 | 0.065 | 0.7% | $1.22 |
| Doppelgang#414 | Extended art | $2.30 | 0.517 | 0.7% | $1.19 |