Commander Legends
Chase card spotlight
Jeska's Will
Extended art
- Single price
- $49.55
- Share of box EV
- 3.5%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (22.7% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 3 boxes ($2,100)
Chasing Jeska's Will by cracking boxes means spending about $2,100for a 50/50 shot — vs $49.55 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 147.16 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 32.40 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 0.44 cards | 35.4% | 1 in 3 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −48%
- Net EV per box
- −$335
- Chance to break even
- 0%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $258
- Typical
- $354
- Average (EV)
- $365
- Lucky (90%)
- $488
The average box ($365) is $11.47 above a typical box ($354) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $700
- Standalone pack listing
- $76.29
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $58.33
- EV per pack
- $30.44
- $365 / box
- Return opening box
- −48%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −60%
The box is the better deal per pack ($58.33 vs $76.29 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −48% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $365 | $365(-$0.03) |
| Variance | 8447 | 8466(+0.2%) |
| Std deviation | $91.91 | $92.01 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $49.55
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (22.7% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 3
- Cost of those boxes
- $2,100
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 11
- Cost at 95%
- $7,700
You'd spend about $2,100 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Jeska's Will, vs $49.55 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 23-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 0.2%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 44.8%
- Typical box (median)
- $354
- Average box (EV)
- $365
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $258
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $488
- God box (99th pct)
- $632
Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $700 you paid. You'd need to open about 1227 boxes (~$858,900) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $354) is $11.47 below the $365 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $365 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $365 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeska's Will#668 | Extended art | $49.55 | 0.258 | 3.5% | $12.78 |
| Tymna the Weaver#539 | — | $28.80 | 0.375 | 3.0% | $10.80 |
| Jeweled Lotus#695 | Extended art | $71.49 | 0.129 | 2.5% | $9.22 |
| Sakashima of a Thousand Faces#561 | — | $42.00 | 0.218 | 2.5% | $9.16 |
| Mana Drain#637 | Extended art | $71.00 | 0.129 | 2.5% | $9.15 |
| Vampiric Tutor#656 | Extended art | $66.99 | 0.129 | 2.4% | $8.64 |
| Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh#575 | — | $23.07 | 0.293 | 1.8% | $6.75 |
| Opposition Agent#651 | Extended art | $26.10 | 0.258 | 1.8% | $6.73 |
| Thrasios, Triton Hero#538 | — | $17.79 | 0.375 | 1.8% | $6.67 |
| Jeska's Will#187 | — | $44.20 | 0.139 | 1.7% | $6.14 |
| Spectator Seating#711 | Extended art | $20.63 | 0.258 | 1.5% | $5.32 |
| Commander's Plate#692 | Extended art | $41.00 | 0.129 | 1.4% | $5.29 |
| Akroma's Will#615 | Extended art | $19.99 | 0.258 | 1.4% | $5.15 |
| Reyhan, Last of the Abzan#534 | — | $13.50 | 0.375 | 1.4% | $5.06 |
| Scroll Rack#699 | Extended art | $38.87 | 0.129 | 1.4% | $5.01 |
| Vault of Champions#715 | Extended art | $17.99 | 0.258 | 1.3% | $4.64 |
| Jeweled Lotus#319 | — | $65.60 | 0.069 | 1.2% | $4.55 |
| Three Visits#686 | Extended art | $12.31 | 0.357 | 1.2% | $4.40 |
| Sakashima of a Thousand Faces#89 | — | $37.90 | 0.112 | 1.2% | $4.23 |
| Vampiric Tutor#156 | — | $60.00 | 0.069 | 1.1% | $4.17 |
| Training Center#713 | Extended art | $15.99 | 0.258 | 1.1% | $4.12 |
| Mana Drain#80 | — | $50.89 | 0.069 | 1.0% | $3.53 |
| Opposition Agent#141 | — | $25.40 | 0.139 | 1.0% | $3.53 |
| Kediss, Emberclaw Familiar#573 | — | $11.61 | 0.293 | 0.9% | $3.40 |
| Rejuvenating Springs#709 | Extended art | $13.00 | 0.258 | 0.9% | $3.35 |
| Silas Renn, Seeker Adept#536 | — | $8.79 | 0.375 | 0.9% | $3.30 |
| Fyndhorn Elves#678 | Extended art | $4.55 | 0.715 | 0.9% | $3.25 |
| Undergrowth Stadium#714 | Extended art | $12.60 | 0.258 | 0.9% | $3.25 |
| Commander's Plate#305 | — | $43.50 | 0.069 | 0.8% | $3.02 |
| Hellkite Courser#666 | Extended art | $23.02 | 0.129 | 0.8% | $2.97 |
| Ardenn, Intrepid Archaeologist#549 | — | $9.99 | 0.293 | 0.8% | $2.92 |
| Command Beacon#704 | Extended art | $10.85 | 0.258 | 0.8% | $2.80 |
| Kodama of the East Tree#582 | — | $6.21 | 0.436 | 0.7% | $2.71 |
| Ravos, Soultender#533 | — | $7.00 | 0.375 | 0.7% | $2.63 |
| Xenagos, God of Revels#541 | — | $6.99 | 0.375 | 0.7% | $2.62 |