Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($369) is $10.75 above a typical box ($359) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 54th percentile — 54% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Commander Legends collector boosterbox TCG low $885, expected value $369, median box $359, 0% break-even, −58% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$4.01 (1.1%) · Box +$143 (19.3%) over 3m · ROI −7.5%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($73.79 vs $80.01 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −58% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $2,656 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Jeska's Will, vs $46.26 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 147.16 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 32.40 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 0.436 cards | 35.4% | 1 in 3 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference