Core Set 2021
Chase card spotlight
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
Showcase
- Single price
- $27.84
- Share of box EV
- 7.0%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (37.4% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 2 boxes ($800)
Chasing Ugin, the Spirit Dragon by cracking boxes means spending about $800for a 50/50 shot — vs $27.84 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 89.13 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 64.49 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.87 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 7.51 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −54%
- Net EV per box
- −$214
- Chance to break even
- 0%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $126
- Typical
- $180
- Average (EV)
- $186
- Lucky (90%)
- $253
The average box ($186) is $5.37 above a typical box ($180) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $400
- Standalone pack listing
- $46.99
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $33.33
- EV per pack
- $15.48
- $186 / box
- Return opening box
- −54%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −67%
The box is the better deal per pack ($33.33 vs $46.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −54% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $186 | $186(-$0.05) |
| Variance | 2496 | 2522(+1.0%) |
| Std deviation | $49.96 | $50.21 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $27.84
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (37.4% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 2
- Cost of those boxes
- $800
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 5
- Cost at 95%
- $2,000
You'd spend about $800 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, vs $27.84 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 0.0%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 45.7%
- Typical box (median)
- $180
- Average box (EV)
- $186
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $126
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $253
- God box (99th pct)
- $329
Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $400 you paid. You'd need to open about 6240 boxes (~$2,495,938) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $180) is $5.37 below the $186 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $186 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $186 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ugin, the Spirit Dragon#285 | Showcase | $27.84 | 0.469 | 7.0% | $13.06 |
| Grim Tutor#315 | Borderless | $27.00 | 0.469 | 6.8% | $12.67 |
| Ugin, the Spirit Dragon#279 | Borderless | $24.23 | 0.469 | 6.1% | $11.37 |
| Terror of the Peaks#369 | Extended art | $50.84 | 0.193 | 5.3% | $9.82 |
| Teferi, Master of Time#281 | Borderless | $15.00 | 0.469 | 3.8% | $7.04 |
| Chromatic Orrery#382 | Extended art | $35.96 | 0.193 | 3.7% | $6.95 |
| Massacre Wurm#316 | Borderless | $12.01 | 0.469 | 3.0% | $5.63 |
| Heroic Intervention#375 | Extended art | $14.00 | 0.386 | 2.9% | $5.41 |
| Teferi, Master of Time#291 | Showcase | $11.00 | 0.469 | 2.8% | $5.16 |
| Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose#362 | Extended art | $13.13 | 0.386 | 2.7% | $5.07 |
| Chromatic Orrery#228 | — | $33.99 | 0.142 | 2.6% | $4.81 |
| Teferi, Master of Time#292 | Showcase | $10.12 | 0.469 | 2.6% | $4.75 |
| Azusa, Lost but Seeking#372 | Extended art | $11.99 | 0.386 | 2.5% | $4.63 |
| Liliana, Waker of the Dead#282 | Borderless | $9.75 | 0.469 | 2.5% | $4.57 |
| Terror of the Peaks#164 | — | $31.51 | 0.142 | 2.4% | $4.46 |
| Heroic Intervention#188 | — | $13.36 | 0.283 | 2.0% | $3.78 |
| Teferi, Master of Time#290 | Showcase | $7.99 | 0.469 | 2.0% | $3.75 |
| Grim Tutor#103 | — | $25.43 | 0.142 | 1.9% | $3.60 |
| Fiery Emancipation#366 | Extended art | $17.90 | 0.193 | 1.9% | $3.46 |
| Teferi, Master of Time#293 | Showcase | $7.01 | 0.469 | 1.8% | $3.29 |
| Azusa, Lost but Seeking#173 | — | $10.68 | 0.283 | 1.6% | $3.02 |
| Cultivate#317 | Borderless | $3.00 | 0.938 | 1.5% | $2.82 |
| Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose#127 | — | $8.99 | 0.283 | 1.4% | $2.55 |
| Fiery Emancipation#143 | — | $16.50 | 0.142 | 1.3% | $2.34 |
| Fabled Passage#386 | Extended art | $5.99 | 0.386 | 1.2% | $2.32 |
| Elder Gargaroth#373 | Extended art | $11.22 | 0.193 | 1.2% | $2.17 |
| Teferi's Ageless Insight#294 | Showcase | $2.25 | 0.938 | 1.1% | $2.11 |
| Ghostly Pilferer#350 | Extended art | $4.99 | 0.386 | 1.0% | $1.93 |
| Solemn Simulacrum#319 | Borderless | $2.00 | 0.938 | 1.0% | $1.88 |
| Chandra's Incinerator#302 | Showcase | $2.00 | 0.938 | 1.0% | $1.88 |
| Swamp#311 | Showcase | $0.75 | 2.400 | 1.0% | $1.80 |
| Peer into the Abyss#360 | Extended art | $4.50 | 0.386 | 0.9% | $1.74 |
| Sanctum of All#381 | Extended art | $4.42 | 0.386 | 0.9% | $1.71 |
| Mountain#312 | Showcase | $0.70 | 2.400 | 0.9% | $1.68 |
| Conspicuous Snoop#364 | Extended art | $4.25 | 0.386 | 0.9% | $1.64 |