Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($186) is $6.22 above a typical box ($180) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Core Set 2021 collector boosterbox TCG low $503, expected value $186, median box $180, 0% break-even, −63% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$4.38 (2.4%) · Box +$208 (70.4%) over 3m · ROI −24.6%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($41.90 vs $55.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −63% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,006 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Grim Tutor, vs $28.99 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 89.13 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 64.49 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.87 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 7.51 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference