RVR·Released Jan 12, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Ravnica Remastered

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$986

$82.17 / pack

Expected value

$478

$39.83 / pack

Net EV per box

−$508

Return on a box

−51.5%

Chance to break even

2.5%

Boxes for 95% one win

119

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Steam Vents

Single price: $59.11
Share of box EV: 3.7%
Pull any copy: 1 in 4 (26.0% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 2 boxes ($1,972)

Chasing Steam Vents by cracking boxes means spending about $1,972for a 50/50 shot — vs $59.11 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	163.88 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	16.00 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Serialized	0.12 cards	11.3%	1 in 9

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −52%
Net EV per box: −$508
Chance to break even: 3%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$986Box price

$335Floor (10%)

$433Typical

$478Average (EV)

$603Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $335
Typical: $433
Average (EV): $478
Lucky (90%): $603

The average box ($478) is $44.90 above a typical box ($433) — 9%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $986
Standalone pack listing: $83.45
Implied pack (box / packs): $82.17
EV per pack: $39.83; $478 / box
Return opening box: −52%
Return buying packs at listing: −52%

The box is the better deal per pack ($82.17 vs $83.45 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −52% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$478	$479(+$0.52)
Variance	50854	52452(+3.1%)
Std deviation	$226	$229

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $59.11
Pull any copy: 1 in 4 (26.0% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 2
Cost of those boxes: $1,972
Boxes for 95% chance: 9
Cost at 95%: $8,874

You'd spend about $1,972 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Steam Vents, vs $59.11 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $986

EV $478

Median $433

$0$267$533$800$1,067$1,333$1,600

Distribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 2.5%
P(box ≥ expected value): 31.1%
Typical box (median): $433
Average box (EV): $479
Unlucky box (10th pct): $335
Lucky box (90th pct): $603
God box (99th pct): $1,729

Roughly 3% of boxes return more than the $986 you paid. You'd need to open about 119 boxes (~$117,334) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $433) is $44.90 below the $478 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $478 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Showcase Rare/Mythicfoil

$16635%

Borderless Rare/Mythic

$13428%

Retro Rare/Mythic

$56.2312%

Serializedfoil

$54.8711%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$36.288%

Foil Artifact Landfoil

$13.443%

Foil Retro Common Uncommonfoil

$7.442%

Retro Common Uncommon

$6.011%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$3.921%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.290%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $478 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Steam Vents#412	—	$59.11	0.301	3.7%	$17.80
Watery Grave#415	—	$53.26	0.301	3.4%	$16.04
Hallowed Fountain#404	—	$49.84	0.301	3.1%	$15.01
Breeding Pool#399	—	$46.50	0.301	2.9%	$14.01
Sacred Foundry#409	—	$41.99	0.301	2.6%	$12.65
Blood Crypt#397	—	$40.96	0.301	2.6%	$12.34
Godless Shrine#401	—	$39.39	0.301	2.5%	$11.86
Cyclonic Rift#313	—	$74.85	0.151	2.4%	$11.27
Watery Grave#301	Borderless	$23.00	0.478	2.3%	$10.98
Cyclonic Rift#419	Borderless	$41.98	0.239	2.1%	$10.02
Overgrown Tomb#407	—	$33.01	0.301	2.1%	$9.94
Bruvac the Grandiloquent#418	Borderless	$38.99	0.239	1.9%	$9.31
Godless Shrine#294	Borderless	$19.00	0.478	1.9%	$9.07
Breeding Pool#293	Borderless	$18.88	0.478	1.9%	$9.02
Stomping Ground#413	—	$28.70	0.301	1.8%	$8.64
Savra, Queen of the Golgari#440	Borderless	$18.00	0.478	1.8%	$8.60
Steam Vents#298	Borderless	$17.40	0.478	1.7%	$8.31
Spark Double#421	Borderless	$16.00	0.478	1.6%	$7.64
Overgrown Tomb#296	Borderless	$15.49	0.478	1.5%	$7.40
Temple Garden#414	—	$24.16	0.301	1.5%	$7.28
Temple Garden#300	Borderless	$14.99	0.478	1.5%	$7.16
Sacred Foundry#297	Borderless	$14.99	0.478	1.5%	$7.16
Blood Crypt#292	Borderless	$14.62	0.478	1.5%	$6.98
Stomping Ground#299	Borderless	$14.59	0.478	1.5%	$6.97
Bruvac the Grandiloquent#309	—	$44.93	0.151	1.4%	$6.77
Crypt Ghast#423	Borderless	$14.00	0.478	1.4%	$6.69
Hallowed Fountain#295	Borderless	$13.48	0.478	1.3%	$6.44
Birds of Paradise#432	Borderless	$10.75	0.478	1.1%	$5.13
Birds of Paradise#344	—	$16.76	0.301	1.1%	$5.05
Utvara Hellkite#431	Borderless	$20.00	0.239	1.0%	$4.78
Crypt Ghast#322	—	$15.60	0.301	1.0%	$4.70
Niv-Mizzet, Parun#438	Borderless	$9.64	0.478	1.0%	$4.60
Guardian Project#433	Borderless	$18.99	0.239	0.9%	$4.53
Hellkite Tyrant#428	Borderless	$8.49	0.478	0.8%	$4.05
Deathrite Shaman#363	—	$13.39	0.301	0.8%	$4.03