Marvel's Spider-Man
Chase card spotlight
The Soul Stone
Borderless
- Single price
- $1,377
- Share of box EV
- 9.2%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 83 (1.2% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 58 boxes ($20,371)
Chasing The Soul Stone by cracking boxes means spending about $20,371for a 50/50 shot — vs $1,377 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 129.54 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 20.34 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 18.37 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Poster | 6.97 cards | 99.9% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 4.74 cards | 99.1% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 0.05 cards | 5.3% | 1 in 19 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −49%
- Net EV per box
- −$171
- Chance to break even
- 6%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $94.08
- Typical
- $139
- Average (EV)
- $180
- Lucky (90%)
- $269
The average box ($180) is $41.11 above a typical box ($139) — 23%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $351
- Standalone pack listing
- $32.98
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $29.27
- EV per pack
- $15.03
- $180 / box
- Return opening box
- −49%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −54%
The box is the better deal per pack ($29.27 vs $32.98 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −49% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $180 | $180(-$0.34) |
| Variance | 29651 | 29497(-0.5%) |
| Std deviation | $172 | $172 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $1,377
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 83 (1.2% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 58
- Cost of those boxes
- $20,371
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 247
- Cost at 95%
- $86,751
You'd spend about $20,371 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The Soul Stone, vs $1,377 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 29-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 5.6%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 27.9%
- Typical box (median)
- $139
- Average box (EV)
- $180
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $94.08
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $269
- God box (99th pct)
- $1,476
Roughly 6% of boxes return more than the $351 you paid. You'd need to open about 53 boxes (~$18,615) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $139) is $41.11 below the $180 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $180 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $180 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Soul Stone#243 | Borderless | $1,377 | 0.012 | 9.2% | $16.60 |
| Reanimate#20 | Borderless | $40.09 | 0.300 | 6.7% | $12.03 |
| Opposition Agent#19 | Borderless | $35.99 | 0.300 | 6.0% | $10.80 |
| Eddie Brock // Venom, Lethal Protector#233 | Poster | $105 | 0.094 | 5.5% | $9.86 |
| The Soul Stone#66 | — | $110 | 0.088 | 5.4% | $9.73 |
| Gwen Stacy // Ghost-Spider#202 | Borderless | $32.19 | 0.279 | 5.0% | $8.97 |
| Parallel Lives#36 | Borderless | $23.99 | 0.300 | 4.0% | $7.20 |
| Norman Osborn // Green Goblin#220 | Poster | $22.00 | 0.279 | 3.4% | $6.13 |
| Gwen Stacy // Ghost-Spider#209 | Showcase | $18.57 | 0.279 | 2.9% | $5.17 |
| Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon#22 | Borderless | $17.00 | 0.300 | 2.8% | $5.10 |
| Lyla, Holographic Assistant#7 | — | $5.95 | 0.762 | 2.5% | $4.53 |
| Heroic Intervention#34 | Borderless | $15.00 | 0.300 | 2.5% | $4.50 |
| Counterspell#9 | Borderless | $14.98 | 0.300 | 2.5% | $4.49 |
| Peter Parker // Amazing Spider-Man#232 | Poster | $47.28 | 0.094 | 2.5% | $4.44 |
| Mindbreak Trap#11 | Borderless | $13.72 | 0.300 | 2.3% | $4.12 |
| Multiversal Passage#206 | Borderless | $6.49 | 0.557 | 2.0% | $3.62 |
| Savage Beating#26 | Borderless | $11.44 | 0.300 | 1.9% | $3.43 |
| Electro, Assaulting Battery#260 | Extended art | $5.99 | 0.557 | 1.9% | $3.34 |
| Arachnogenesis#31 | Borderless | $10.82 | 0.300 | 1.8% | $3.25 |
| Spectacular Spider-Man#235 | Textured | $404 | 7.75e-3 | 1.7% | $3.13 |
| Beast Within#33 | Borderless | $9.85 | 0.300 | 1.6% | $2.96 |
| Spider-Punk#210 | Showcase | $5.00 | 0.557 | 1.5% | $2.79 |
| Miles Morales // Ultimate Spider-Man#234 | Poster | $28.75 | 0.094 | 1.5% | $2.70 |
| Wedding Ring#7 | Borderless | $9.00 | 0.300 | 1.5% | $2.70 |
| Ponder#13 | Borderless | $8.68 | 0.300 | 1.4% | $2.60 |
| Path to Exile#4 | Borderless | $8.59 | 0.300 | 1.4% | $2.58 |
| Infernal Grasp#18 | Borderless | $8.50 | 0.300 | 1.4% | $2.55 |
| Miles Morales // Ultimate Spider-Man#211 | Showcase | $8.93 | 0.279 | 1.4% | $2.49 |
| Gwenom, Remorseless#256 | Extended art | $8.60 | 0.279 | 1.3% | $2.40 |
| Tangle#38 | Borderless | $7.00 | 0.300 | 1.2% | $2.10 |
| Saw in Half#21 | Borderless | $7.00 | 0.300 | 1.2% | $2.10 |
| Najeela, the Blade-Blossom#24 | Borderless | $7.00 | 0.300 | 1.2% | $2.10 |
| Spectacular Spider-Man#236 | Textured | $270 | 7.75e-3 | 1.2% | $2.09 |
| Terminate#40 | Borderless | $6.70 | 0.300 | 1.1% | $2.01 |
| Spectacular Spider-Man#240 | Textured | $259 | 7.75e-3 | 1.1% | $2.01 |