FIN·Released Jun 13, 2025·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Final Fantasy

Verdict
Money pit
Box price (TCG low)
$1,300
$108 / pack
Expected value
$753
$62.75 / pack
Net EV per box
−$547
Return on a box
−42.1%
Chance to break even
8.6%
Boxes for 95% one win
34
to break even once
Traveling Chocobo

Chase card spotlight

Traveling Chocobo

Borderless

Single price
$5,950
Share of box EV
5.7%
Pull any copy
1 in 140 (0.7% / box)
Coin-flip chase
96 boxes ($124,799)

Chasing Traveling Chocobo by cracking boxes means spending about $124,799for a 50/50 shot — vs $5,950 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard97.33 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless48.13 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art30.93 cards100.0%Every time
Surge foil3.58 cards97.2%1 in 2
Neon ink0.03 cards2.8%1 in 35

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

$
At this price
Keep sealed
Return if cracked
−42%
Net EV per box
−$547
Chance to break even
9%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$1,300Box price
$340Floor (10%)
$594Typical
$753Average (EV)
$1,239Lucky (90%)
Floor (10%)
$340
Typical
$594
Average (EV)
$753
Lucky (90%)
$1,239

The average box ($753) is $159 above a typical box ($594) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$1,300
Standalone pack listing
$99.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$108
EV per pack
$62.75
$753 / box
Return opening box
−42%
Return buying packs at listing
−37%

Standalone packs list at $99.00 vs $108 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $62.75/pack (−37% return either way).

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

StatisticTheoreticalSimulated
Expected value$753$758(+$5.23)
Variance446550481125(+7.7%)
Std deviation$668$694

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$5,950
Pull any copy
1 in 140 (0.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
96
Cost of those boxes
$124,799
Boxes for 95% chance
415
Cost at 95%
$539,496

You'd spend about $124,799 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Traveling Chocobo, vs $5,950 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes
profit zone
Box $1,300
EV $753
Median $594
$0$350$700$1,050$1,400$1,750$2,100

Distribution of total card value per box across 21-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price)
8.6%
P(box ≥ expected value)
31.2%
Typical box (median)
$594
Average box (EV)
$758
Unlucky box (10th pct)
$340
Lucky box (90th pct)
$1,239
God box (99th pct)
$3,087

Roughly 9% of boxes return more than the $1,300 you paid. You'd need to open about 34 boxes (~$44,200) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $594) is $159 below the $753 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $753 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Boosterfun Rare/Mythicfoil
$33544%
Non Foil Boosterfun Rare/Mythic
$13418%
Fic Foil Boosterfun Rare/Mythicfoil
$13117%
Foil Through The Agesfoil
$90.8612%
Foil Rare/Mythicfoil
$28.694%
Non Foil Through The Ages
$16.742%
Boosterfun Common Uncommon
$8.011%
Foil Boosterfun Common Uncommonfoil
$5.961%
Foil Uncommonfoil
$2.480%
Foil Basicfoil
$0.190%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $753 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

CardTreatmentPricePulls/boxEV share$/box
Traveling Chocobo#551Borderless$5,9507.20e-35.7%$42.84
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel#527Surge foil$7500.0454.5%$33.75
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed#215Surge foil$8110.0414.4%$33.29
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed#207Borderless$2370.1083.4%$25.50
Buster Sword#351Borderless$1620.1393.0%$22.50
Rhystic Study#31Borderless$3840.0482.4%$18.43
Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER#210Surge foil$4050.0412.2%$16.65
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel#317Borderless$1500.1002.0%$15.06
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel#382Borderless$1080.1372.0%$14.83
Vivi Ornitier#321Borderless$1400.1001.9%$14.06
Traveling Chocobo#551cNeon ink$1,9447.20e-31.9%$13.99
Summon: Bahamut#356Borderless$94.700.1391.7%$13.14
Traveling Chocobo#551dNeon ink$1,8017.20e-31.7%$12.97
Terra, Herald of Hope#212Surge foil$3130.0411.7%$12.86
Cloud, Midgar Mercenary#520Surge foil$2860.0451.7%$12.86
Ancient Copper Dragon#12Borderless$2610.0481.7%$12.54
Traveling Chocobo#551bNeon ink$1,7217.20e-31.6%$12.39
Traveling Chocobo#551aNeon ink$1,6977.20e-31.6%$12.22
Yuna, Grand Summoner#216Surge foil$2960.0411.6%$12.17
Tifa Lockhart#536Surge foil$1310.0911.6%$11.85
Tifa, Martial Artist#214Surge foil$2820.0411.5%$11.60
Urza, Lord High Artificer#5Borderless$2300.0481.5%$11.04
Ranger-Captain of Eos#2Borderless$2120.0481.4%$10.18
Atraxa, Grand Unifier#49Borderless$2000.0481.3%$9.59
Terra, Magical Adept // Esper Terra#323Borderless$94.000.1001.3%$9.44
Lightning, Army of One#545Surge foil$2030.0451.2%$9.15
Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER#202Borderless$80.990.1081.2%$8.73
Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin#322Borderless$81.750.1001.1%$8.21
Tidus, Yuna's Guardian#213Surge foil$1990.0411.1%$8.19
Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin#543Surge foil$1790.0451.1%$8.04
Cloud, Midgar Mercenary#375Borderless$57.990.1371.1%$7.97
Terra, Herald of Hope#204Borderless$70.890.1081.0%$7.64
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer#43Borderless$1550.0481.0%$7.44
Celes, Rune Knight#209Surge foil$1740.0410.9%$7.14
The Earth Crystal#342Borderless$21.300.2980.8%$6.35