Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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FIN·Released Jun 13, 2025·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Final Fantasy collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$1,649
$137/pack
Expected value
$874
$72.84/pack
Net EV
−$775
Break-even
7.9%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −47%

Traveling Chocobo

$7,729 · 1 in 140 · 1% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$381
$679
$874
$1,469
$1,649
Floor (10%)
$381
Typical
$679
Average (EV)
$874
Lucky (90%)
$1,469
Box price
$1,649

The average box ($874) is $195 above a typical box ($679) — 22%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

93%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

7%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $1,649
EV $874 · 69th
Median $679
$0$450$900$1,350$1,800$2,250$2,700

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 69th percentile — 69% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Final Fantasy collector boosterbox TCG low $1,649, expected value $874, median box $679, 8% break-even, −47% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Final Fantasy collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Final Fantasy collector booster box is $874 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $679.
What are the odds of breaking even on Final Fantasy collector boosters?
About 8% of simulated Final Fantasy collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,649). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Final Fantasy sealed?
Money pit. EV is $874 vs sealed $1,649 (−47% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$111 (14.5%) · Box +$166 (11.1%) over 3m · ROI +1.6%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$1,649
Standalone pack listing
$170
Implied pack (box / packs)
$137
EV per pack
$72.84
$874 / box
Return opening box
−47%
Return buying packs at listing
−57%

The box is the better deal per pack ($137 vs $170 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −47% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$7,729
Pull any copy
1 in 140 (0.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
96
Cost of those boxes
$158,304
Boxes for 95% chance
415
Cost at 95%
$684,335

You'd spend about $158,304 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Traveling Chocobo, vs $7,729 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard97.33 cards100.0%Every time
Borderless48.13 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art30.93 cards100.0%Every time
Surge foil3.58 cards97.2%1 in 2
Neon ink0.029 cards2.8%1 in 35
Serialized0.024 cards2.4%1 in 42

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference