FIN·Released Jun 13, 2025·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Final Fantasy

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$1,300

$108 / pack

Expected value

$753

$62.75 / pack

Net EV per box

−$547

Return on a box

−42.1%

Chance to break even

8.6%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Traveling Chocobo

Borderless

Single price: $5,950
Share of box EV: 5.7%
Pull any copy: 1 in 140 (0.7% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 96 boxes ($124,799)

Chasing Traveling Chocobo by cracking boxes means spending about $124,799for a 50/50 shot — vs $5,950 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	97.33 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	48.13 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	30.93 cards	100.0%	Every time
Surge foil	3.58 cards	97.2%	1 in 2
Neon ink	0.03 cards	2.8%	1 in 35

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −42%
Net EV per box: −$547
Chance to break even: 9%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$1,300Box price

$340Floor (10%)

$594Typical

$753Average (EV)

$1,239Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $340
Typical: $594
Average (EV): $753
Lucky (90%): $1,239

The average box ($753) is $159 above a typical box ($594) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $1,300
Standalone pack listing: $99.00
Implied pack (box / packs): $108
EV per pack: $62.75; $753 / box
Return opening box: −42%
Return buying packs at listing: −37%

Standalone packs list at $99.00 vs $108 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $62.75/pack (−37% return either way).

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$753	$758(+$5.23)
Variance	446550	481125(+7.7%)
Std deviation	$668	$694

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $5,950
Pull any copy: 1 in 140 (0.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 96
Cost of those boxes: $124,799
Boxes for 95% chance: 415
Cost at 95%: $539,496

You'd spend about $124,799 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Traveling Chocobo, vs $5,950 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $1,300

EV $753

Median $594

$0$350$700$1,050$1,400$1,750$2,100

Distribution of total card value per box across 21-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 8.6%
P(box ≥ expected value): 31.2%
Typical box (median): $594
Average box (EV): $758
Unlucky box (10th pct): $340
Lucky box (90th pct): $1,239
God box (99th pct): $3,087

Roughly 9% of boxes return more than the $1,300 you paid. You'd need to open about 34 boxes (~$44,200) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $594) is $159 below the $753 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $753 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Boosterfun Rare/Mythicfoil

$33544%

Non Foil Boosterfun Rare/Mythic

$13418%

Fic Foil Boosterfun Rare/Mythicfoil

$13117%

Foil Through The Agesfoil

$90.8612%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$28.694%

Non Foil Through The Ages

$16.742%

Boosterfun Common Uncommon

$8.011%

Foil Boosterfun Common Uncommonfoil

$5.961%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$2.480%

Foil Basicfoil

$0.190%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $753 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Traveling Chocobo#551	Borderless	$5,950	7.20e-3	5.7%	$42.84
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel#527	Surge foil	$750	0.045	4.5%	$33.75
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed#215	Surge foil	$811	0.041	4.4%	$33.29
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed#207	Borderless	$237	0.108	3.4%	$25.50
Buster Sword#351	Borderless	$162	0.139	3.0%	$22.50
Rhystic Study#31	Borderless	$384	0.048	2.4%	$18.43
Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER#210	Surge foil	$405	0.041	2.2%	$16.65
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel#317	Borderless	$150	0.100	2.0%	$15.06
Sephiroth, Fabled SOLDIER // Sephiroth, One-Winged Angel#382	Borderless	$108	0.137	2.0%	$14.83
Vivi Ornitier#321	Borderless	$140	0.100	1.9%	$14.06
Traveling Chocobo#551c	Neon ink	$1,944	7.20e-3	1.9%	$13.99
Summon: Bahamut#356	Borderless	$94.70	0.139	1.7%	$13.14
Traveling Chocobo#551d	Neon ink	$1,801	7.20e-3	1.7%	$12.97
Terra, Herald of Hope#212	Surge foil	$313	0.041	1.7%	$12.86
Cloud, Midgar Mercenary#520	Surge foil	$286	0.045	1.7%	$12.86
Ancient Copper Dragon#12	Borderless	$261	0.048	1.7%	$12.54
Traveling Chocobo#551b	Neon ink	$1,721	7.20e-3	1.6%	$12.39
Traveling Chocobo#551a	Neon ink	$1,697	7.20e-3	1.6%	$12.22
Yuna, Grand Summoner#216	Surge foil	$296	0.041	1.6%	$12.17
Tifa Lockhart#536	Surge foil	$131	0.091	1.6%	$11.85
Tifa, Martial Artist#214	Surge foil	$282	0.041	1.5%	$11.60
Urza, Lord High Artificer#5	Borderless	$230	0.048	1.5%	$11.04
Ranger-Captain of Eos#2	Borderless	$212	0.048	1.4%	$10.18
Atraxa, Grand Unifier#49	Borderless	$200	0.048	1.3%	$9.59
Terra, Magical Adept // Esper Terra#323	Borderless	$94.00	0.100	1.3%	$9.44
Lightning, Army of One#545	Surge foil	$203	0.045	1.2%	$9.15
Cloud, Ex-SOLDIER#202	Borderless	$80.99	0.108	1.2%	$8.73
Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin#322	Borderless	$81.75	0.100	1.1%	$8.21
Tidus, Yuna's Guardian#213	Surge foil	$199	0.041	1.1%	$8.19
Kefka, Court Mage // Kefka, Ruler of Ruin#543	Surge foil	$179	0.045	1.1%	$8.04
Cloud, Midgar Mercenary#375	Borderless	$57.99	0.137	1.1%	$7.97
Terra, Herald of Hope#204	Borderless	$70.89	0.108	1.0%	$7.64
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer#43	Borderless	$155	0.048	1.0%	$7.44
Celes, Rune Knight#209	Surge foil	$174	0.041	0.9%	$7.14
The Earth Crystal#342	Borderless	$21.30	0.298	0.8%	$6.35