MID·Released Sep 24, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad: Midnight Hunt

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$193

$16.05 / pack

Expected value

$68.38

$5.70 / pack

Net EV per box

−$124

Return on a box

−64.5%

Chance to break even

0.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

∞

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Haunted Ridge

Borderless

Single price: $9.98
Share of box EV: 8.7%
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (45.0% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 1 boxes ($193)

Chasing Haunted Ridge by cracking boxes means spending about $193for a 50/50 shot — vs $9.98 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	84.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	60.55 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	31.57 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	3.88 cards	97.9%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −64%
Net EV per box: −$124
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$193Box price

$45.97Floor (10%)

$65.20Typical

$68.38Average (EV)

$95.59Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $45.97
Typical: $65.20
Average (EV): $68.38
Lucky (90%): $95.59

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $193
Standalone pack listing: —
Implied pack (box / packs): $16.05
EV per pack: $5.70; $68.38 / box
Return opening box: −64%
Return buying packs at listing: —

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$68.38	$68.52(+$0.14)
Variance	392	399(+1.9%)
Std deviation	$19.79	$19.98

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $9.98
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (45.0% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 1
Cost of those boxes: $193
Boxes for 95% chance: 4
Cost at 95%: $770

You'd spend about $193 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Haunted Ridge, vs $9.98 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $193

EV $68.38

Median $65.20

$0$52$103$155$207$258$310

Distribution of total card value per box across 31-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 43.6%
Typical box (median): $65.20
Average box (EV): $68.52
Unlucky box (10th pct): $45.97
Lucky box (90th pct): $95.59
God box (99th pct): $127

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $193 you paid. A typical box (median $65.20) is $3.18 below the $68.38 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $68.38 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Alt Art Rare/Mythicfoil

$16.7124%

Rare/Mythic Showcase

$14.4121%

Extended Commander

$13.1819%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$10.6416%

Extended Rare/Mythic

$7.5011%

Foil Basicfoil

$3.946%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$1.702%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.300%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $68.38 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Haunted Ridge#282	Borderless	$9.98	0.597	8.7%	$5.96
The Meathook Massacre#348	Extended art	$26.00	0.208	7.9%	$5.41
Shipwreck Marsh#285	Borderless	$7.94	0.597	6.9%	$4.74
Deserted Beach#281	Borderless	$7.00	0.597	6.1%	$4.18
Arlinn, the Pack's Hope // Arlinn, the Moon's Fury#307	Showcase	$11.75	0.299	5.1%	$3.51
Rockfall Vale#284	Borderless	$4.75	0.597	4.1%	$2.84
Overgrown Farmland#283	Borderless	$4.50	0.597	3.9%	$2.69
Jadar, Ghoulcaller of Nephalia#315	Showcase	$4.25	0.597	3.7%	$2.54
The Meathook Massacre#112	—	$26.99	0.081	3.2%	$2.19
Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver#40	Extended art	$12.00	0.176	3.1%	$2.12
Teferi, Who Slows the Sunset#280	Borderless	$6.87	0.299	3.0%	$2.05
Hordewing Skaab#53	Extended art	$5.00	0.353	2.6%	$1.76
Avacyn's Memorial#69	Extended art	$7.95	0.176	2.1%	$1.40
Wrenn and Seven#278	Borderless	$4.25	0.299	1.9%	$1.27
Curse of the Restless Dead#56	Extended art	$3.49	0.353	1.8%	$1.23
Adeline, Resplendent Cathar#312	Showcase	$2.00	0.597	1.7%	$1.19
Gisa, Glorious Resurrector#314	Showcase	$2.00	0.597	1.7%	$1.19
Cleaver Skaab#49	Extended art	$2.99	0.353	1.5%	$1.06
Haunted Ridge#263	—	$6.24	0.162	1.5%	$1.01
Swamp#273	Showcase	$0.79	1.200	1.4%	$0.95
Swamp#272	Showcase	$0.79	1.200	1.4%	$0.95
Arlinn, the Pack's Hope // Arlinn, the Moon's Fury#279	Borderless	$2.99	0.299	1.3%	$0.89
Shipwreck Marsh#267	—	$5.40	0.162	1.3%	$0.88
Unnatural Growth#365	Extended art	$1.96	0.416	1.2%	$0.82
Saryth, the Viper's Fang#304	Showcase	$1.30	0.597	1.1%	$0.78
Deserted Beach#260	—	$4.73	0.162	1.1%	$0.77
Curse of Clinging Webs#63	Extended art	$1.97	0.353	1.0%	$0.70
Moonsilver Key#255	—	$2.25	0.289	1.0%	$0.65
Jadar, Ghoulcaller of Nephalia#108	—	$3.99	0.162	0.9%	$0.65
Heronblade Elite#64	Extended art	$1.80	0.353	0.9%	$0.64
Crowded Crypt#55	Extended art	$1.77	0.353	0.9%	$0.62
Mountain#274	Showcase	$0.50	1.200	0.9%	$0.60
Tovolar, Dire Overlord // Tovolar, the Midnight Scourge#311	Showcase	$1.00	0.597	0.9%	$0.60
Lier, Disciple of the Drowned#313	Showcase	$2.00	0.299	0.9%	$0.60
Liesa, Forgotten Archangel#319	Showcase	$1.00	0.597	0.9%	$0.60