LTR-SE·Released Jun 23, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth (Special Edition)

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$6,500

$542 / pack

Expected value

$1,420

$118 / pack

Net EV per box

−$5,080

Return on a box

−78.2%

Chance to break even

0.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

9361

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

The One Ring

Poster

Single price: $1,305
Share of box EV: 12.2%
Pull any copy: 1 in 8 (12.5% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 5 boxes ($32,500)

Chasing The One Ring by cracking boxes means spending about $32,500for a 50/50 shot — vs $1,305 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Scroll	126.62 cards	100.0%	Every time
Surge foil	24.34 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	12.58 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Silver foil	10.92 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Poster	2.66 cards	93.0%	1 in 2
Extended art	2.54 cards	92.1%	1 in 2
Serialized	0.02 cards	1.8%	1 in 56

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −78%
Net EV per box: −$5,080
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$6,500Box price

$883Floor (10%)

$1,276Typical

$1,420Average (EV)

$2,140Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $883
Typical: $1,276
Average (EV): $1,420
Lucky (90%): $2,140

The average box ($1,420) is $144 above a typical box ($1,276) — 10%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $6,500
Standalone pack listing: $450
Implied pack (box / packs): $542
EV per pack: $118; $1,420 / box
Return opening box: −78%
Return buying packs at listing: −74%

Standalone packs list at $450 vs $542 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $118/pack (−74% return either way).

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$1,420	$1,419(-$1.14)
Variance	370170	352704(-4.7%)
Std deviation	$608	$594

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $1,305
Pull any copy: 1 in 8 (12.5% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 5
Cost of those boxes: $32,500
Boxes for 95% chance: 21
Cost at 95%: $136,500

You'd spend about $32,500 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The One Ring, vs $1,305 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $6,500

EV $1,420

Median $1,276

$0$1,750$3,500$5,250$7,000$8,750$10,500

Distribution of total card value per box across 21-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 37.6%
Typical box (median): $1,276
Average box (EV): $1,419
Unlucky box (10th pct): $883
Lucky box (90th pct): $2,140
God box (99th pct): $3,603

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $6,500 you paid. You'd need to open about 9361 boxes (~$60,846,406) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $1,276) is $144 below the $1,420 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $1,420 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Hildebrant Poster Rmfoil

$35225%

Surge Booster Fun Rmfoil

$22016%

Hildebrant Poster Rm

$21915%

Silver Showcase Rare/Mythicfoil

$15611%

Showcase Rare/Mythic

$1037%

Surge Extended Rare/Mythicfoil

$99.647%

Scene Jumpstart Rare/Mythic

$89.796%

Silver Showcase Uncommonfoil

$37.703%

Showcase Uncommon

$25.322%

Serialized Topperfoil

$24.162%

Surge Map Landfoil

$22.162%

Serialized Posterfoil

$16.731%

Silver Showcase Commonfoil

$16.351%

Silver Hildebrant Ufoil

$13.001%

Hildebrant U

$11.861%

Showcase Common

$9.801%

Surge Booster Fun Ufoil

$3.140%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $1,420 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
The One Ring#748	Poster	$1,305	0.133	12.2%	$174
Sauron, the Dark Lord#744	Poster	$661	0.133	6.2%	$87.98
Gandalf the White#732	Poster	$331	0.133	3.1%	$44.12
Pact of Negation#523	Silver foil	$107	0.394	3.0%	$42.05
Tom Bombadil#745	Poster	$313	0.133	2.9%	$41.74
The One Ring#791	Surge foil	$216	0.185	2.8%	$39.84
Mount Doom#750	Poster	$218	0.133	2.0%	$29.10
Palantír of Orthanc#749	Poster	$210	0.133	2.0%	$28.04
Witch-king of Angmar#736	Poster	$201	0.133	1.9%	$26.84
Last March of the Ents#739	Poster	$188	0.133	1.8%	$25.01
Saruman of Many Colors#743	Poster	$163	0.133	1.5%	$21.66
Call Forth the Tempest#509	Borderless	$35.29	0.572	1.4%	$20.18
Diabolic Intent#526	Silver foil	$93.97	0.197	1.3%	$18.51
Ancient Tomb#387	Surge foil	$328	0.055	1.3%	$18.19
The One Ring#697	Scroll	$282	0.064	1.3%	$17.95
Legolas's Quick Reflexes#493	Borderless	$29.67	0.572	1.2%	$16.97
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth#405	Surge foil	$291	0.055	1.1%	$16.11
Radagast the Brown#740	Poster	$107	0.133	1.0%	$14.19
Aragorn, the Uniter#741	Poster	$106	0.133	1.0%	$14.09
Galadriel's Dismissal#500	Borderless	$24.39	0.572	1.0%	$13.95
Storm of Saruman#733	Poster	$105	0.133	1.0%	$13.93
Kenrith, the Returned King#515	Silver foil	$70.15	0.197	1.0%	$13.82
Gemstone Caverns#394	Surge foil	$239	0.055	0.9%	$13.25
Glamdring#747	Poster	$96.33	0.133	0.9%	$12.83
Arwen, Mortal Queen#742	Poster	$94.61	0.133	0.9%	$12.60
Timber Protector#533	Silver foil	$31.99	0.394	0.9%	$12.60
Spiteful Banditry#738	Poster	$93.94	0.133	0.9%	$12.51
Delighted Halfling#774	Surge foil	$33.49	0.369	0.9%	$12.37
Orcish Bowmasters#554	Scroll	$96.20	0.128	0.9%	$12.27
Mithril Coat#790	Surge foil	$33.01	0.369	0.9%	$12.19
The Watcher in the Water#734	Poster	$91.36	0.133	0.9%	$12.17
Andúril, Flame of the West#746	Poster	$90.26	0.133	0.8%	$12.02
Cavern of Souls#392	Surge foil	$213	0.055	0.8%	$11.80
Sylvan Tutor#531	Silver foil	$59.75	0.197	0.8%	$11.77
Nazgûl Battle-Mace#510	Borderless	$18.07	0.572	0.7%	$10.34