Lorwyn Eclipsed
Chase card spotlight
Hexing Squelcher
Showcase
- Single price
- $59.99
- Share of box EV
- 18.3%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (38.0% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 2 boxes ($776)
Chasing Hexing Squelcher by cracking boxes means spending about $776for a 50/50 shot — vs $59.99 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 114.53 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 34.33 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 24.80 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 6.22 cards | 99.8% | 1 in 2 |
| Fracture foil | 0.12 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −60%
- Net EV per box
- −$231
- Chance to break even
- 1%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $91.73
- Typical
- $147
- Average (EV)
- $157
- Lucky (90%)
- $227
The average box ($157) is $9.41 above a typical box ($147) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $388
- Standalone pack listing
- $35.00
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $32.33
- EV per pack
- $13.07
- $157 / box
- Return opening box
- −60%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −63%
The box is the better deal per pack ($32.33 vs $35.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −60% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $157 | $157(+$0.06) |
| Variance | 4057 | 4086(+0.7%) |
| Std deviation | $63.70 | $63.92 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $59.99
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (38.0% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 2
- Cost of those boxes
- $776
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 5
- Cost at 95%
- $1,940
You'd spend about $776 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Hexing Squelcher, vs $59.99 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 1.2%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 42.8%
- Typical box (median)
- $147
- Average box (EV)
- $157
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $91.73
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $227
- God box (99th pct)
- $442
Roughly 1% of boxes return more than the $388 you paid. You'd need to open about 241 boxes (~$93,510) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $147) is $9.41 below the $157 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $157 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $157 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hexing Squelcher#317 | Showcase | $59.99 | 0.478 | 18.3% | $28.67 |
| Formidable Speaker#366 | Extended art | $25.00 | 0.479 | 7.6% | $11.97 |
| Bitterbloom Bearer#310 | Showcase | $34.50 | 0.239 | 5.3% | $8.26 |
| Chronicle of Victory#346 | Showcase | $33.00 | 0.239 | 5.0% | $7.90 |
| Steam Vents // Steam Vents#348 | Borderless | $27.50 | 0.234 | 4.1% | $6.44 |
| Bloom Tender#390 | Showcase | $59.36 | 0.108 | 4.1% | $6.41 |
| Hallowed Fountain // Hallowed Fountain#347 | Borderless | $22.35 | 0.234 | 3.3% | $5.24 |
| Blood Crypt // Blood Crypt#349 | Borderless | $21.32 | 0.234 | 3.2% | $5.00 |
| Overgrown Tomb // Overgrown Tomb#350 | Borderless | $20.87 | 0.234 | 3.1% | $4.89 |
| Springleaf Parade#39 | Extended art | $8.17 | 0.545 | 2.8% | $4.46 |
| Bloom Tender#400 | Fracture foil | $345 | 0.012 | 2.6% | $4.14 |
| Wistfulness#296 | Borderless | $17.85 | 0.216 | 2.5% | $3.85 |
| Temple Garden // Temple Garden#351 | Borderless | $16.00 | 0.234 | 2.4% | $3.75 |
| Bloom Tender#324 | Showcase | $15.00 | 0.239 | 2.3% | $3.59 |
| Eirdu, Carrier of Dawn // Isilu, Carrier of Twilight#286 | Borderless | $16.59 | 0.216 | 2.3% | $3.58 |
| Moonshadow#386 | Showcase | $28.98 | 0.108 | 2.0% | $3.13 |
| Hexing Squelcher#145 | — | $18.99 | 0.158 | 1.9% | $3.00 |
| Moonshadow#313 | Showcase | $12.25 | 0.239 | 1.9% | $2.93 |
| Vibrance#295 | Borderless | $11.99 | 0.216 | 1.6% | $2.59 |
| High Perfect Morcant#373 | Extended art | $4.87 | 0.479 | 1.5% | $2.33 |
| Twilight Diviner#315 | Showcase | $4.75 | 0.478 | 1.4% | $2.27 |
| Bitterblossom#133 | Borderless | $34.96 | 0.063 | 1.4% | $2.20 |
| Deceit#293 | Borderless | $10.00 | 0.216 | 1.4% | $2.16 |
| Goblin Sharpshooter#136 | Borderless | $32.94 | 0.063 | 1.3% | $2.07 |
| Painter's Servant#147 | Borderless | $31.99 | 0.063 | 1.3% | $2.01 |
| Maralen, Fae Ascendant#376 | Extended art | $4.00 | 0.479 | 1.2% | $1.92 |
| Moonshadow#396 | Fracture foil | $151 | 0.012 | 1.2% | $1.81 |
| Doran, Besieged by Time#334 | Showcase | $3.71 | 0.478 | 1.1% | $1.77 |
| Dolmen Gate#145 | Borderless | $26.50 | 0.063 | 1.1% | $1.66 |
| Steam Vents#267 | — | $10.00 | 0.158 | 1.0% | $1.58 |
| Abundant Countryside#42 | Extended art | $2.73 | 0.545 | 0.9% | $1.49 |
| Chronicle of Victory#253 | — | $18.46 | 0.079 | 0.9% | $1.46 |
| Sapling Nursery#328 | Showcase | $2.99 | 0.478 | 0.9% | $1.43 |
| Formidable Speaker#176 | — | $8.70 | 0.158 | 0.9% | $1.37 |
| Overgrown Tomb#266 | — | $8.29 | 0.158 | 0.8% | $1.31 |