KHM·Released Feb 5, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Kaldheim

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$305

$25.42 / pack

Expected value

$176

$14.69 / pack

Net EV per box

−$129

Return on a box

−42.2%

Chance to break even

1.5%

Boxes for 95% one win

198

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty

Showcase

Single price: $52.50
Share of box EV: 19.3%
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (47.7% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 1 boxes ($305)

Chasing Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty by cracking boxes means spending about $305for a 50/50 shot — vs $52.50 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

Loading opener...

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	120.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	35.52 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	19.13 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Borderless	5.35 cards	99.5%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −42%
Net EV per box: −$129
Chance to break even: 2%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$305Box price

$114Floor (10%)

$170Typical

$176Average (EV)

$244Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $114
Typical: $170
Average (EV): $176
Lucky (90%): $244

The average box ($176) is $5.90 above a typical box ($170) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $305
Standalone pack listing: —
Implied pack (box / packs): $25.42
EV per pack: $14.69; $176 / box
Return opening box: −42%
Return buying packs at listing: —

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$176	$176(-$0.49)
Variance	2669	2612(-2.1%)
Std deviation	$51.67	$51.11

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $52.50
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (47.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 1
Cost of those boxes: $305
Boxes for 95% chance: 3
Cost at 95%: $915

You'd spend about $305 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty, vs $52.50 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $305

EV $176

Median $170

$0$83$167$250$333$417$500

Distribution of total card value per box across 25-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 1.5%
P(box ≥ expected value): 45.4%
Typical box (median): $170
Average box (EV): $176
Unlucky box (10th pct): $114
Lucky box (90th pct): $244
God box (99th pct): $315

Roughly 2% of boxes return more than the $305 you paid. You'd need to open about 198 boxes (~$60,390) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $170) is $5.90 below the $176 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $176 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Rare/Mythic Showcase

$55.2731%

Foil Alt Frame Rare/Mythicfoil

$51.1929%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$30.5517%

Extended Art

$18.0010%

Saga Theme Commander

$9.475%

Foil Basicfoil

$5.843%

Foil Commonfoil

$3.152%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$2.201%

Uncommon Showcase

$0.330%

Foil Common Uncommon Showcasefoil

$0.300%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $176 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty#311	Showcase	$52.50	0.649	19.3%	$34.07
Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern#307	Showcase	$22.96	0.649	8.5%	$14.90
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#320	Showcase	$67.15	0.162	6.2%	$10.90
Halvar, God of Battle // Sword of the Realms#299	Showcase	$33.00	0.325	6.1%	$10.71
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#333	Showcase	$37.99	0.162	3.5%	$6.16
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty#123	—	$36.30	0.162	3.3%	$5.89
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge#314	Showcase	$15.83	0.325	2.9%	$5.14
Magda, Brazen Outlaw#312	Showcase	$7.20	0.649	2.7%	$4.67
Tibalt's Trickery#360	Extended art	$9.00	0.503	2.6%	$4.53
Darkbore Pathway // Slitherbore Pathway#292	Borderless	$6.58	0.649	2.4%	$4.27
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#199	—	$50.95	0.081	2.3%	$4.13
Wolverine Riders#14	—	$10.00	0.400	2.3%	$4.00
Koma, Cosmos Serpent#326	Showcase	$12.01	0.325	2.2%	$3.90
Blightstep Pathway // Searstep Pathway#291	Borderless	$5.86	0.649	2.2%	$3.80
Goldspan Dragon#358	Extended art	$14.95	0.252	2.1%	$3.76
The World Tree#373	Extended art	$6.96	0.503	2.0%	$3.50
Tyvar Kell#287	Borderless	$9.59	0.325	1.8%	$3.11
Hengegate Pathway // Mistgate Pathway#293	Borderless	$4.76	0.649	1.8%	$3.09
Barkchannel Pathway // Tidechannel Pathway#290	Borderless	$4.62	0.649	1.7%	$3.00
Righteous Valkyrie#338	Extended art	$5.94	0.503	1.7%	$2.99
Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern#112	—	$16.99	0.162	1.6%	$2.76
Varragoth, Bloodsky Sire#309	Showcase	$4.06	0.649	1.5%	$2.64
Toski, Bearer of Secrets#319	Showcase	$3.99	0.649	1.5%	$2.59
Maskwood Nexus#369	Extended art	$4.54	0.503	1.3%	$2.28
Halvar, God of Battle // Sword of the Realms#15	—	$25.40	0.081	1.2%	$2.06
Elvish Warmaster#363	Extended art	$4.00	0.503	1.1%	$2.01
Tibalt's Trickery#153	—	$10.00	0.162	0.9%	$1.62
Toralf, God of Fury // Toralf's Hammer#313	Showcase	$4.99	0.325	0.9%	$1.62
Valki, God of Lies // Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor#286	Borderless	$9.95	0.162	0.9%	$1.61
Cosmic Intervention#3	—	$3.92	0.400	0.9%	$1.57
Valki, God of Lies // Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor#308	Showcase	$9.38	0.162	0.9%	$1.52
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge#168	—	$17.00	0.081	0.8%	$1.38
Orvar, the All-Form#305	Showcase	$4.00	0.325	0.7%	$1.30
Kaya the Inexorable#288	Borderless	$3.58	0.325	0.7%	$1.16
The World Tree#275	—	$6.92	0.162	0.6%	$1.12