KHM·Released Feb 5, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Kaldheim

Verdict
Money pit
Box price (TCG low)
$305
$25.42 / pack
Expected value
$176
$14.69 / pack
Net EV per box
−$129
Return on a box
−42.2%
Chance to break even
1.5%
Boxes for 95% one win
198
to break even once
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty

Chase card spotlight

Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty

Showcase

Single price
$52.50
Share of box EV
19.3%
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (47.7% / box)
Coin-flip chase
1 boxes ($305)

Chasing Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty by cracking boxes means spending about $305for a 50/50 shot — vs $52.50 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard120.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase35.52 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art19.13 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless5.35 cards99.5%1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

$
At this price
Keep sealed
Return if cracked
−42%
Net EV per box
−$129
Chance to break even
2%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$305Box price
$114Floor (10%)
$170Typical
$176Average (EV)
$244Lucky (90%)
Floor (10%)
$114
Typical
$170
Average (EV)
$176
Lucky (90%)
$244

The average box ($176) is $5.90 above a typical box ($170) — 3%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$305
Standalone pack listing
Implied pack (box / packs)
$25.42
EV per pack
$14.69
$176 / box
Return opening box
−42%
Return buying packs at listing

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

StatisticTheoreticalSimulated
Expected value$176$176(-$0.49)
Variance26692612(-2.1%)
Std deviation$51.67$51.11

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$52.50
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (47.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$305
Boxes for 95% chance
3
Cost at 95%
$915

You'd spend about $305 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty, vs $52.50 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes
profit zone
Box $305
EV $176
Median $170
$0$83$167$250$333$417$500

Distribution of total card value per box across 25-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price)
1.5%
P(box ≥ expected value)
45.4%
Typical box (median)
$170
Average box (EV)
$176
Unlucky box (10th pct)
$114
Lucky box (90th pct)
$244
God box (99th pct)
$315

Roughly 2% of boxes return more than the $305 you paid. You'd need to open about 198 boxes (~$60,390) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $170) is $5.90 below the $176 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $176 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Rare/Mythic Showcase
$55.2731%
Foil Alt Frame Rare/Mythicfoil
$51.1929%
Foil Rare/Mythicfoil
$30.5517%
Extended Art
$18.0010%
Saga Theme Commander
$9.475%
Foil Basicfoil
$5.843%
Foil Commonfoil
$3.152%
Foil Uncommonfoil
$2.201%
Uncommon Showcase
$0.330%
Foil Common Uncommon Showcasefoil
$0.300%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $176 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

CardTreatmentPricePulls/boxEV share$/box
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty#311Showcase$52.500.64919.3%$34.07
Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern#307Showcase$22.960.6498.5%$14.90
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#320Showcase$67.150.1626.2%$10.90
Halvar, God of Battle // Sword of the Realms#299Showcase$33.000.3256.1%$10.71
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#333Showcase$37.990.1623.5%$6.16
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty#123$36.300.1623.3%$5.89
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge#314Showcase$15.830.3252.9%$5.14
Magda, Brazen Outlaw#312Showcase$7.200.6492.7%$4.67
Tibalt's Trickery#360Extended art$9.000.5032.6%$4.53
Darkbore Pathway // Slitherbore Pathway#292Borderless$6.580.6492.4%$4.27
Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider#199$50.950.0812.3%$4.13
Wolverine Riders#14$10.000.4002.3%$4.00
Koma, Cosmos Serpent#326Showcase$12.010.3252.2%$3.90
Blightstep Pathway // Searstep Pathway#291Borderless$5.860.6492.2%$3.80
Goldspan Dragon#358Extended art$14.950.2522.1%$3.76
The World Tree#373Extended art$6.960.5032.0%$3.50
Tyvar Kell#287Borderless$9.590.3251.8%$3.11
Hengegate Pathway // Mistgate Pathway#293Borderless$4.760.6491.8%$3.09
Barkchannel Pathway // Tidechannel Pathway#290Borderless$4.620.6491.7%$3.00
Righteous Valkyrie#338Extended art$5.940.5031.7%$2.99
Tergrid, God of Fright // Tergrid's Lantern#112$16.990.1621.6%$2.76
Varragoth, Bloodsky Sire#309Showcase$4.060.6491.5%$2.64
Toski, Bearer of Secrets#319Showcase$3.990.6491.5%$2.59
Maskwood Nexus#369Extended art$4.540.5031.3%$2.28
Halvar, God of Battle // Sword of the Realms#15$25.400.0811.2%$2.06
Elvish Warmaster#363Extended art$4.000.5031.1%$2.01
Tibalt's Trickery#153$10.000.1620.9%$1.62
Toralf, God of Fury // Toralf's Hammer#313Showcase$4.990.3250.9%$1.62
Valki, God of Lies // Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor#286Borderless$9.950.1620.9%$1.61
Cosmic Intervention#3$3.920.4000.9%$1.57
Valki, God of Lies // Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor#308Showcase$9.380.1620.9%$1.52
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge#168$17.000.0810.8%$1.38
Orvar, the All-Form#305Showcase$4.000.3250.7%$1.30
Kaya the Inexorable#288Borderless$3.580.3250.7%$1.16
The World Tree#275$6.920.1620.6%$1.12