EOE·Released Aug 1, 2025·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Edge of Eternities

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$577

$48.08 / pack

Expected value

$320

$26.70 / pack

Net EV per box

−$257

Return on a box

−44.5%

Chance to break even

6.3%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Sothera, the Supervoid

Poster

Single price: $1,120
Share of box EV: 8.5%
Pull any copy: 1 in 42 (2.4% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 29 boxes ($16,733)

Chasing Sothera, the Supervoid by cracking boxes means spending about $16,733for a 50/50 shot — vs $1,120 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	120.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	27.90 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	22.13 cards	100.0%	Every time
Galaxy foil	5.70 cards	99.7%	1 in 2
Showcase	3.39 cards	96.6%	1 in 2
Poster	0.75 cards	52.8%	1 in 2
Fracture foil	0.12 cards	11.4%	1 in 9

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −44%
Net EV per box: −$257
Chance to break even: 6%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$577Box price

$170Floor (10%)

$271Typical

$320Average (EV)

$482Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $170
Typical: $271
Average (EV): $320
Lucky (90%): $482

The average box ($320) is $49.55 above a typical box ($271) — 15%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $577
Standalone pack listing: $58.65
Implied pack (box / packs): $48.08
EV per pack: $26.70; $320 / box
Return opening box: −44%
Return buying packs at listing: −54%

The box is the better deal per pack ($48.08 vs $58.65 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −44% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$320	$322(+$1.83)
Variance	44620	46732(+4.7%)
Std deviation	$211	$216

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $1,120
Pull any copy: 1 in 42 (2.4% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 29
Cost of those boxes: $16,733
Boxes for 95% chance: 123
Cost at 95%: $70,971

You'd spend about $16,733 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sothera, the Supervoid, vs $1,120 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $577

EV $320

Median $271

$0$158$317$475$633$792$950

Distribution of total card value per box across 19-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 6.3%
P(box ≥ expected value): 33.2%
Typical box (median): $271
Average box (EV): $322
Unlucky box (10th pct): $170
Lucky box (90th pct): $482
God box (99th pct): $1,412

Roughly 6% of boxes return more than the $577 you paid. You'd need to open about 47 boxes (~$27,119) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $271) is $49.55 below the $320 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $320 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Boosterfunfoil

$13642%

Stellar Sights Land

$39.0612%

Non Foil Boosterfun

$37.9912%

Galaxy Stellar Sights Landfoil

$33.9411%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$27.829%

Foil Stellar Sights Landfoil

$22.667%

Celestial Basic Landfoil

$16.385%

Commander

$6.282%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$0.700%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $320 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Sothera, the Supervoid#382	Poster	$1,120	0.024	8.5%	$27.11
Ancient Tomb#1	Borderless	$190	0.095	5.7%	$18.11
Tezzeret, Cruel Captain#287	Borderless	$82.82	0.154	4.0%	$12.73
Icetill Explorer#362	Showcase	$81.75	0.109	2.8%	$8.90
Gemstone Caverns#16	Borderless	$85.22	0.095	2.5%	$8.12
Quantum Riddler#305	Borderless	$52.00	0.154	2.5%	$7.99
Ouroboroid#345	Extended art	$50.47	0.154	2.4%	$7.76
Icetill Explorer#343	Extended art	$22.55	0.307	2.2%	$6.93
Ancient Tomb#46	Borderless	$145	0.044	2.0%	$6.34
Exalted Sunborn#358	Showcase	$58.00	0.109	2.0%	$6.31
Starfield Vocalist#359	Showcase	$48.98	0.109	1.7%	$5.33
Ancient Tomb#91	Galaxy foil	$387	0.012	1.4%	$4.59
Terrasymbiosis#312	Borderless	$14.88	0.307	1.4%	$4.58
Mana Confluence#70	Borderless	$101	0.044	1.4%	$4.43
Watery Grave#286	Showcase	$14.14	0.307	1.4%	$4.35
Icetill Explorer#388	Fracture foil	$355	0.012	1.3%	$4.29
Mana Confluence#25	Borderless	$44.83	0.095	1.3%	$4.27
Gemstone Caverns#61	Borderless	$93.38	0.044	1.3%	$4.08
Breeding Pool#278	Showcase	$12.00	0.307	1.2%	$3.69
Green Sun's Zenith#127	Poster	$45.77	0.073	1.0%	$3.32
Exalted Sunborn#318	Extended art	$20.00	0.154	1.0%	$3.07
Godless Shrine#280	Showcase	$9.99	0.307	1.0%	$3.07
Ouroboroid#201	—	$35.01	0.086	0.9%	$3.00
Stomping Ground#283	Showcase	$9.75	0.307	0.9%	$3.00
Quantum Riddler#72	—	$34.45	0.086	0.9%	$2.95
Sacred Foundry#282	Showcase	$9.00	0.307	0.9%	$2.77
Gemstone Caverns#106	Galaxy foil	$233	0.012	0.9%	$2.76
Sliver Overlord#128	Poster	$37.48	0.073	0.8%	$2.72
Plaza of Heroes#78	Borderless	$62.25	0.044	0.8%	$2.72
Ancient Tomb#136	Galaxy foil	$434	5.93e-3	0.8%	$2.57
Icetill Explorer#192	—	$14.99	0.171	0.8%	$2.57
Exalted Sunborn#384	Fracture foil	$210	0.012	0.8%	$2.55
Swamp#369	Galaxy foil	$3.04	0.800	0.8%	$2.43
Forest#371	Galaxy foil	$3.00	0.800	0.7%	$2.40
Burgeoning#126	Poster	$33.00	0.073	0.7%	$2.40