LCI·Released Nov 17, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...
What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$233
$328
$391
$576
$1,178
Floor (10%)
$233
Typical
$328
Average (EV)
$391
Lucky (90%)
$576
Box price
$1,178
The average box ($391) is $62.48 above a typical box ($328) — 16%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $1,178
EV $391
Median $328
$0$317$633$950$1,267$1,583$1,900
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosterbox TCG low $1,178, expected value $391, median box $328, 1% break-even, −67% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box is $391 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $328.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,178). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lost Caverns of Ixalan sealed?
Money pit. EV is $391 vs sealed $1,178 (−67% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$40.07 (11.4%) · Box +$328 (38.6%) over 3m · ROI −8.1%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$1,178
Standalone pack listing
$117
Implied pack (box / packs)
$98.15
EV per pack
$32.57
$391 / box
Return opening box
−67%
Return buying packs at listing
−72%
The box is the better deal per pack ($98.15 vs $117 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −67% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$39.25
Pull any copy
1 in 2 (95.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
1
Cost of those boxes
$1,178
Boxes for 95% chance
1
Cost at 95%
$1,178
You'd spend about $1,178 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Pantlaza, Sun-Favored, vs $39.25 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.