LCI·Released Nov 17, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster EV
Verdict
Money pit
Loading opener...
What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$228
$333
$401
$593
$1,298
Floor (10%)
$228
Typical
$333
Average (EV)
$401
Lucky (90%)
$593
Box price
$1,298
The average box ($401) is $68.27 above a typical box ($333) — 17%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
99%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
1%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $1,298
EV $401 · 72nd
Median $333
$0$350$700$1,050$1,400$1,750$2,100
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 72nd percentile — 72% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosterbox TCG low $1,298, expected value $401, median box $333, 1% break-even, −69% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector booster box is $401 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $333.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boosters?
About 1% of simulated The Lost Caverns of Ixalan collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($1,298). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Lost Caverns of Ixalan sealed?
Money pit. EV is $401 vs sealed $1,298 (−69% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$31.21 (8.4%) · Box +$311 (31.5%) over 3m · ROI −6.6%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$1,298
Standalone pack listing
$120
Implied pack (box / packs)
$108
EV per pack
$33.44
$401 / box
Return opening box
−69%
Return buying packs at listing
−72%
The box is the better deal per pack ($108 vs $120 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −69% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$47.99
Pull any copy
1 in 3 (37.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
2
Cost of those boxes
$2,596
Boxes for 95% chance
5
Cost at 95%
$6,490
You'd spend about $2,596 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Roaming Throne, vs $47.99 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.