The Lost Caverns of Ixalan
Chase card spotlight
Pantlaza, Sun-Favored
Borderless
- Single price
- $13.00
- Share of box EV
- 10.6%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 2 (95.0% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 1 boxes ($970)
Chasing Pantlaza, Sun-Favored by cracking boxes means spending about $970for a 50/50 shot — vs $13.00 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 113.82 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 29.44 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 18.41 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 18.18 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Neon ink | 0.08 cards | 8.1% | 1 in 12 |
| Embossed | 0.06 cards | 5.8% | 1 in 17 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −62%
- Net EV per box
- −$603
- Chance to break even
- 2%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $220
- Typical
- $316
- Average (EV)
- $367
- Lucky (90%)
- $543
The average box ($367) is $50.60 above a typical box ($316) — 14%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $970
- Standalone pack listing
- $89.95
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $80.83
- EV per pack
- $30.55
- $367 / box
- Return opening box
- −62%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −66%
The box is the better deal per pack ($80.83 vs $89.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −62% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $367 | $367(+$0.07) |
| Variance | 49241 | 51885(+5.4%) |
| Std deviation | $222 | $228 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $13.00
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 2 (95.0% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 1
- Cost of those boxes
- $970
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 1
- Cost at 95%
- $970
You'd spend about $970 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Pantlaza, Sun-Favored, vs $13.00 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 2.1%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 31.6%
- Typical box (median)
- $316
- Average box (EV)
- $367
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $220
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $543
- God box (99th pct)
- $1,264
Roughly 2% of boxes return more than the $970 you paid. You'd need to open about 143 boxes (~$138,709) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $316) is $50.60 below the $367 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $367 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $367 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pantlaza, Sun-Favored#20 | Borderless | $13.00 | 3.000 | 10.6% | $39.00 |
| Hunting Velociraptor#4 | Borderless | $80.34 | 0.291 | 6.4% | $23.40 |
| Forest // Forest#25 | — | $19.00 | 1.165 | 6.0% | $22.13 |
| Ravenous Tyrannosaurus#18 | Borderless | $63.97 | 0.291 | 5.1% | $18.63 |
| Indoraptor, the Perfect Hybrid#15 | Borderless | $41.64 | 0.291 | 3.3% | $12.13 |
| Savage Order#6 | Borderless | $37.99 | 0.291 | 3.0% | $11.06 |
| Mountain // Mountain#24 | — | $9.00 | 1.165 | 2.9% | $10.48 |
| Spitting Dilophosaurus#3 | Borderless | $33.75 | 0.291 | 2.7% | $9.83 |
| Underworld Breach#9 | Borderless | $64.51 | 0.139 | 2.5% | $8.99 |
| Welcome to . . . // Jurassic Park#7 | Borderless | $29.00 | 0.291 | 2.3% | $8.45 |
| Indominus Rex, Alpha#14 | Borderless | $25.75 | 0.291 | 2.0% | $7.50 |
| Roaming Throne#258 | — | $44.99 | 0.160 | 2.0% | $7.20 |
| Roaming Throne#344 | Borderless | $49.49 | 0.139 | 1.9% | $6.90 |
| Life Finds a Way#5 | Borderless | $23.18 | 0.291 | 1.8% | $6.75 |
| Plains // Plains#21 | — | $5.38 | 1.165 | 1.7% | $6.27 |
| Charismatic Conqueror#38 | Extended art | $24.29 | 0.244 | 1.6% | $5.93 |
| Mana Crypt#17f | Neon ink | $262 | 0.022 | 1.6% | $5.69 |
| Island // Island#22 | — | $4.68 | 1.165 | 1.5% | $5.45 |
| Permission Denied#17 | Borderless | $18.55 | 0.291 | 1.5% | $5.40 |
| Illustrious Wanderglyph#21 | Extended art | $14.00 | 0.381 | 1.5% | $5.33 |
| Mana Crypt#17 | Borderless | $75.18 | 0.070 | 1.4% | $5.24 |
| Thrasios, Triton Hero#16 | Borderless | $36.99 | 0.139 | 1.4% | $5.16 |
| Cavern of Souls#410f | Neon ink | $229 | 0.022 | 1.4% | $4.97 |
| Dino DNA#20 | Borderless | $16.43 | 0.291 | 1.3% | $4.78 |
| Mana Crypt#17a | Neon ink | $3,361 | 1.35e-3 | 1.2% | $4.55 |
| Clavileño, First of the Blessed#18 | Showcase | $1.50 | 3.000 | 1.2% | $4.50 |
| Cavern of Souls#345 | Borderless | $59.91 | 0.070 | 1.1% | $4.17 |
| Cavern of Souls#269 | — | $52.00 | 0.080 | 1.1% | $4.16 |
| Cavern of Souls#410c | Neon ink | $370 | 0.011 | 1.1% | $4.01 |
| Hakbal of the Surging Soul#19 | Showcase | $1.25 | 3.000 | 1.0% | $3.75 |
| Mana Crypt#17c | Neon ink | $334 | 0.011 | 1.0% | $3.62 |
| Indominus Rex, Alpha#39 | Embossed | $1,136 | 3.16e-3 | 1.0% | $3.59 |
| Swooping Pteranodon#19 | Borderless | $11.97 | 0.291 | 1.0% | $3.49 |
| Mana Crypt#17e | Neon ink | $1,148 | 2.71e-3 | 0.8% | $3.11 |
| Compy Swarm#9 | Borderless | $10.28 | 0.291 | 0.8% | $2.99 |