HOB·Released Aug 14, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Hobbit collector booster EV
Verdict
Pre-order
!
This set isn't out yet. Pre-release and launch-day singles are speculative and usually drop sharply once boxes hit shelves. EV updates after tomorrow's price pull; treat today's numbers as provisional.
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$495
$778
$827
$850
$1,211
Floor (10%)
$495
Typical
$778
Average (EV)
$827
Lucky (90%)
$1,211
Box price
$850
The average box ($827) is $48.42 above a typical box ($778) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
60%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
40%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $850
EV $827
Median $778
$0$233$467$700$933$1,167$1,400
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Key facts
The Hobbit collector boosterbox TCG low $850, expected value $827, median box $778, 40% break-even, −3% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Hobbit collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Hobbit collector booster box is $827 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $778.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Hobbit collector boosters?
About 40% of simulated The Hobbit collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($850). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Hobbit sealed?
Roughly break-even. EV is $827 vs sealed $850 (−3% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$850
Standalone pack listing
$82.95
Implied pack (box / packs)
$70.83
EV per pack
$68.89
$827 / box
Return opening box
−3%
Return buying packs at listing
−17%
The box is the better deal per pack ($70.83 vs $82.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −3% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$254
Pull any copy
1 in 10 (10.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
7
Cost of those boxes
$5,950
Boxes for 95% chance
27
Cost at 95%
$22,950
You'd spend about $5,950 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mox Amber, vs $254 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.