HOB·Released Aug 14, 2026·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours
The Hobbit collector booster EV
Verdict
Bad bet
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What opening a box looks like
Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
$255
$421
$519
$700
$758
Floor (10%)
$255
Typical
$421
Average (EV)
$519
Lucky (90%)
$758
Box price
$700
The average box ($519) is $97.80 above a typical box ($421) — 19%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Value distribution
10,000 simulated boxes
Below box cost
87%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
13%
break even or profit
profit zone
Box $700
EV $519 · 69th
Median $421
$0$192$383$575$767$958$1,150
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 69th percentile — 69% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Key facts
The Hobbit collector boosterbox TCG low $700, expected value $519, median box $421, 13% break-even, −26% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a The Hobbit collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a The Hobbit collector booster box is $519 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $421.
What are the odds of breaking even on The Hobbit collector boosters?
About 13% of simulated The Hobbit collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($700). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold The Hobbit sealed?
Bad bet. EV is $519 vs sealed $700 (−26% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.
EV over time
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$73.10 (-12.5%) · Box −$34.99 (-4.7%) over 3m · ROI −6.4%
Box EV Box price
Should you crack it?
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Box price
$700
Standalone pack listing
$60.84
Implied pack (box / packs)
$58.31
EV per pack
$43.22
$519 / box
Return opening box
−26%
Return buying packs at listing
−29%
The box is the better deal per pack ($58.31 vs $60.84 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −26% return.
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
Single price
$24,500
Pull any copy
1 in 500 (0.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
347
Cost of those boxes
$242,792
Boxes for 95% chance
1,497
Cost at 95%
$1,047,436
You'd spend about $242,792 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Smaug the Magnificent, vs $24,500 to buy it now.
Chase pull rates
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.