Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($171) is $11.04 above a typical box ($160) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
97%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
3%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 55th percentile — 55% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Dominaria United collector boosterbox TCG low $394, expected value $171, median box $160, 3% break-even, −57% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$16.96 (10.9%) · Box +$86.00 (28.8%) over 3m · ROI −7.3%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($32.87 vs $33.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −57% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $789 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, vs $100 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 120.75 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 23.28 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 12.00 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 5.05 cards | 99.4% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference