Dominaria United
Chase card spotlight
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Showcase
- Single price
- $107
- Share of box EV
- 20.7%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (25.4% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 3 boxes ($927)
Chasing Sheoldred, the Apocalypse by cracking boxes means spending about $927for a 50/50 shot — vs $107 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 120.98 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 23.12 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 18.92 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Textured | 12.00 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 4.98 cards | 99.3% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −51%
- Net EV per box
- −$157
- Chance to break even
- 5%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $62.66
- Typical
- $140
- Average (EV)
- $152
- Lucky (90%)
- $268
The average box ($152) is $12.14 above a typical box ($140) — 8%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $309
- Standalone pack listing
- $30.00
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $25.75
- EV per pack
- $12.66
- $152 / box
- Return opening box
- −51%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −58%
The box is the better deal per pack ($25.75 vs $30.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −51% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $152 | $150(-$2.33) |
| Variance | 10816 | 9524(-11.9%) |
| Std deviation | $104 | $97.59 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $107
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (25.4% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 3
- Cost of those boxes
- $927
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 9
- Cost at 95%
- $2,781
You'd spend about $927 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, vs $107 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 25-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 5.0%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 44.7%
- Typical box (median)
- $140
- Average box (EV)
- $150
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $62.66
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $268
- God box (99th pct)
- $409
Roughly 5% of boxes return more than the $309 you paid. You'd need to open about 59 boxes (~$18,230) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $140) is $12.14 below the $152 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $152 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $152 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheoldred, the Apocalypse#290 | Showcase | $107 | 0.293 | 20.7% | $31.43 |
| Sheoldred, the Apocalypse#369 | Showcase | $80.00 | 0.293 | 15.4% | $23.42 |
| Sheoldred, the Apocalypse#331 | Textured | $123 | 0.104 | 8.4% | $12.79 |
| Sheoldred, the Apocalypse#107 | — | $105 | 0.086 | 5.9% | $8.98 |
| Plains#277 | — | $2.30 | 2.400 | 3.6% | $5.52 |
| Tiller Engine#96 | Extended art | $24.90 | 0.180 | 3.0% | $4.49 |
| Braids, Arisen Nightmare#288 | Showcase | $6.00 | 0.585 | 2.3% | $3.51 |
| Mountain#280 | — | $1.35 | 2.400 | 2.1% | $3.24 |
| Caves of Koilos#378 | Borderless | $5.20 | 0.585 | 2.0% | $3.04 |
| Island#278 | — | $1.25 | 2.400 | 2.0% | $3.00 |
| Shivan Reef#380 | Borderless | $4.80 | 0.585 | 1.8% | $2.81 |
| Forest#281 | — | $1.00 | 2.400 | 1.6% | $2.40 |
| The Reaver Cleaver#84 | Extended art | $12.50 | 0.180 | 1.5% | $2.26 |
| Plaza of Heroes#421 | Extended art | $6.00 | 0.365 | 1.4% | $2.19 |
| Braids, Arisen Nightmare#329 | Textured | $9.99 | 0.209 | 1.4% | $2.08 |
| Adarkar Wastes#377 | Borderless | $3.49 | 0.585 | 1.3% | $2.04 |
| Yavimaya Coast#382 | Borderless | $3.03 | 0.585 | 1.2% | $1.77 |
| Sulfurous Springs#381 | Borderless | $3.00 | 0.585 | 1.2% | $1.76 |
| Karplusan Forest#379 | Borderless | $3.00 | 0.585 | 1.2% | $1.76 |
| Two-Headed Hellkite#90 | Extended art | $8.00 | 0.180 | 1.0% | $1.44 |
| Swamp#279 | — | $0.59 | 2.400 | 0.9% | $1.42 |
| Elas il-Kor, Sadistic Pilgrim#338 | Textured | $3.37 | 0.417 | 0.9% | $1.41 |
| Liliana of the Veil#373 | Borderless | $4.70 | 0.293 | 0.9% | $1.38 |
| Ajani, Sleeper Agent#376 | Borderless | $4.54 | 0.293 | 0.9% | $1.33 |
| Plaza of Heroes#252 | — | $7.55 | 0.171 | 0.9% | $1.29 |
| Greensleeves, Maro-Sorcerer#77 | Extended art | $12.25 | 0.090 | 0.7% | $1.11 |
| Silverback Elder#418 | Extended art | $6.00 | 0.183 | 0.7% | $1.10 |
| Timeless Lotus#239 | — | $12.74 | 0.086 | 0.7% | $1.09 |
| Vodalian Hexcatcher#398 | Extended art | $2.99 | 0.365 | 0.7% | $1.09 |
| Serra Paragon#388 | Extended art | $5.57 | 0.183 | 0.7% | $1.02 |
| Ajani, Sleeper Agent#375 | Borderless | $3.45 | 0.293 | 0.7% | $1.01 |
| Sivitri, Dragon Master#43 | — | $4.95 | 0.200 | 0.7% | $0.99 |
| The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale#307 | — | $2,900 | 3.19e-4 | 0.6% | $0.93 |
| Vesuvan Duplimancy#397 | Extended art | $4.35 | 0.183 | 0.5% | $0.79 |
| Relic of Legends#236 | — | $2.55 | 0.300 | 0.5% | $0.77 |