SNC·Released Apr 29, 2022·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Streets of New Capenna

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$238

$19.83 / pack

Expected value

$123

$10.22 / pack

Net EV per box

−$115

Return on a box

−48.4%

Chance to break even

0.4%

Boxes for 95% one win

748

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Jetmir's Garden

Borderless

Single price: $50.62
Share of box EV: 9.4%
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (20.5% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 3 boxes ($714)

Chasing Jetmir's Garden by cracking boxes means spending about $714for a 50/50 shot — vs $50.62 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	96.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	45.54 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	28.54 cards	100.0%	Every time
Gilded	6.60 cards	99.9%	1 in 2
Borderless	3.32 cards	96.4%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −48%
Net EV per box: −$115
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$238Box price

$78.89Floor (10%)

$119Typical

$123Average (EV)

$171Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $78.89
Typical: $119
Average (EV): $123
Lucky (90%): $171

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $238
Standalone pack listing: $22.35
Implied pack (box / packs): $19.83
EV per pack: $10.22; $123 / box
Return opening box: −48%
Return buying packs at listing: −54%

The box is the better deal per pack ($19.83 vs $22.35 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −48% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$123	$123(-$0.06)
Variance	1323	1321(-0.1%)
Std deviation	$36.37	$36.34

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $50.62
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (20.5% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 3
Cost of those boxes: $714
Boxes for 95% chance: 12
Cost at 95%: $2,856

You'd spend about $714 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Jetmir's Garden, vs $50.62 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $238

EV $123

Median $119

$0$67$133$200$267$333$400

Distribution of total card value per box across 20-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.4%
P(box ≥ expected value): 45.8%
Typical box (median): $119
Average box (EV): $123
Unlucky box (10th pct): $78.89
Lucky box (90th pct): $171
God box (99th pct): $222

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $238 you paid. You'd need to open about 748 boxes (~$178,024) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $119) is $3.54 below the $123 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $123 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Rare/Mythic Showcase

$30.2125%

Foil Rare/Mythic Showcasefoil

$27.8823%

Extended Commander

$24.4320%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$17.2014%

Extended Rare/Mythic

$7.796%

Gilded Rare/Mythic Showcasefoil

$6.595%

Foil Commonfoil

$2.062%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$1.922%

Etched Rare/Mythic Showcasefoil

$1.902%

Gilded Common Uncommon Showcasefoil

$1.431%

Foil Fullart Basicfoil

$1.281%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $123 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Jetmir's Garden#291	Borderless	$50.62	0.229	9.4%	$11.59
Spara's Headquarters#293	Borderless	$39.15	0.229	7.3%	$8.96
Raffine's Tower#292	Borderless	$33.99	0.229	6.3%	$7.78
Ziatora's Proving Ground#295	Borderless	$33.25	0.229	6.2%	$7.61
Xander's Lounge#294	Borderless	$29.25	0.229	5.5%	$6.70
Raffine's Tower#353	Showcase	$15.54	0.229	2.9%	$3.56
Jetmir's Garden#351	Showcase	$15.35	0.229	2.9%	$3.51
Spara's Headquarters#355	Showcase	$14.20	0.229	2.6%	$3.25
Ledger Shredder#412	Extended art	$6.00	0.517	2.5%	$3.10
Professional Face-Breaker#426	Extended art	$6.00	0.517	2.5%	$3.10
Ziatora's Proving Ground#359	Showcase	$11.50	0.229	2.1%	$2.63
Jetmir's Garden#250	—	$15.00	0.171	2.1%	$2.57
Halo Fountain#285	Borderless	$10.94	0.229	2.0%	$2.50
Xander's Lounge#358	Showcase	$10.22	0.229	1.9%	$2.34
Jetmir, Nexus of Revels#312	Showcase	$9.63	0.229	1.8%	$2.20
Seize the Spotlight#152	Extended art	$15.00	0.140	1.7%	$2.09
Spara's Headquarters#257	—	$11.68	0.171	1.6%	$2.00
Xander's Lounge#260	—	$11.45	0.171	1.6%	$1.96
Master of Ceremonies#119	Extended art	$13.69	0.140	1.6%	$1.91
Raffine's Tower#254	—	$10.00	0.171	1.4%	$1.71
Ziatora's Proving Ground#261	—	$8.94	0.171	1.2%	$1.53
Smuggler's Share#122	Extended art	$9.49	0.140	1.1%	$1.32
Change of Plans#125	Extended art	$9.21	0.140	1.0%	$1.29
Damning Verdict#116	Extended art	$9.17	0.140	1.0%	$1.28
Life of the Party#148	Extended art	$8.76	0.140	1.0%	$1.22
Raffine, Scheming Seer#327	Showcase	$5.25	0.229	1.0%	$1.20
Jolene, the Plunder Queen#173	Extended art	$8.61	0.140	1.0%	$1.20
Ledger Shredder#46	—	$7.00	0.171	1.0%	$1.20
Make an Example#138	Extended art	$8.25	0.140	0.9%	$1.15
Raffine, Scheming Seer#392	Gilded	$32.37	0.036	0.9%	$1.15
Bootleggers' Stash#288	Borderless	$4.99	0.229	0.9%	$1.14
Ziatora, the Incinerator#404	Gilded	$30.90	0.036	0.9%	$1.10
Topiary Stomper#290	Borderless	$2.30	0.458	0.9%	$1.05
Slip Out the Back#62	—	$3.49	0.300	0.9%	$1.05
Arcane Bombardment#422	Extended art	$4.00	0.259	0.8%	$1.03