INR·Released Jan 24, 2025·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Innistrad Remastered

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$400

$33.32 / pack

Expected value

$171

$14.28 / pack

Net EV per box

−$228

Return on a box

−57.1%

Chance to break even

0.0%

Boxes for 95% one win

∞

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Avacyn, Angel of Hope

Poster

Single price: $37.69
Share of box EV: 4.6%
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (18.9% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 3 boxes ($1,199)

Chasing Avacyn, Angel of Hope by cracking boxes means spending about $1,199for a 50/50 shot — vs $37.69 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	162.69 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	12.40 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Poster	3.35 cards	96.5%	1 in 2
Showcase	1.56 cards	79.0%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −57%
Net EV per box: −$228
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$400Box price

$118Floor (10%)

$169Typical

$171Average (EV)

$231Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $118
Typical: $169
Average (EV): $171
Lucky (90%): $231

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $400
Standalone pack listing: $39.96
Implied pack (box / packs): $33.32
EV per pack: $14.28; $171 / box
Return opening box: −57%
Return buying packs at listing: −64%

The box is the better deal per pack ($33.32 vs $39.96 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −57% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$171	$172(+$0.70)
Variance	1951	1956(+0.2%)
Std deviation	$44.17	$44.22

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $37.69
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (18.9% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 3
Cost of those boxes: $1,199
Boxes for 95% chance: 13
Cost at 95%: $5,197

You'd spend about $1,199 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Avacyn, Angel of Hope, vs $37.69 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $400

EV $171

Median $169

$0$107$213$320$427$533$640

Distribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.0%
P(box ≥ expected value): 47.5%
Typical box (median): $169
Average box (EV): $172
Unlucky box (10th pct): $118
Lucky box (90th pct): $231
God box (99th pct): $288

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $400 you paid. A typical box (median $169) is $2.75 below the $171 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $171 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Booster Fun

$78.2446%

Foil Booster Funfoil

$54.5632%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$26.7016%

Foil Showcase Cufoil

$7.174%

Retro Cu

$1.171%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$1.131%

Foil Basicfoil

$0.901%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.850%

Showcase Cu

$0.660%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $171 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Avacyn, Angel of Hope#482	Poster	$37.69	0.209	4.6%	$7.89
Craterhoof Behemoth#480	—	$17.00	0.419	4.2%	$7.12
The Meathook Massacre#486	Poster	$33.54	0.209	4.1%	$7.02
Hermit Druid#488	Poster	$7.87	0.837	3.8%	$6.59
Snapcaster Mage#478	—	$14.00	0.419	3.4%	$5.86
Edgar Markov#428	—	$26.00	0.209	3.2%	$5.44
Avacyn, Angel of Hope#477	—	$25.00	0.209	3.1%	$5.23
Edgar Markov#328	Showcase	$25.00	0.209	3.1%	$5.23
Cathars' Crusade#483	Poster	$12.50	0.419	3.1%	$5.23
Balefire Dragon#479	—	$10.99	0.419	2.7%	$4.60
The Meathook Massacre#387	—	$21.05	0.209	2.6%	$4.41
Emrakul, the Promised End#481	Poster	$18.12	0.209	2.2%	$3.79
Blood Artist#372	—	$14.77	0.234	2.0%	$3.46
Hullbreaker Horror#303	Borderless	$7.99	0.419	2.0%	$3.34
Essence Flux#354	—	$7.00	0.468	1.9%	$3.28
Edgar Markov#234	—	$43.77	0.075	1.9%	$3.26
Griselbrand#485	Poster	$14.50	0.209	1.8%	$3.03
Emrakul, the Promised End#330	—	$14.00	0.209	1.7%	$2.93
Olivia Voldaren#490	Poster	$7.00	0.419	1.7%	$2.93
Delver of Secrets // Insectile Aberration#457	—	$6.02	0.468	1.6%	$2.82
Liliana of the Veil#475	—	$5.75	0.419	1.4%	$2.41
The Gitrog Monster#489	Poster	$10.82	0.209	1.3%	$2.26
Morbid Opportunist#388	—	$8.98	0.234	1.2%	$2.10
Temporal Mastery#307	Borderless	$5.00	0.419	1.2%	$2.09
Cryptolith Rite#316	Borderless	$4.50	0.419	1.1%	$1.88
Cathars' Crusade#337	—	$4.11	0.419	1.0%	$1.72
Gisela, the Broken Blade // Brisela, Voice of Nightmares#24	—	$23.00	0.075	1.0%	$1.71
The Meathook Massacre#122	—	$23.00	0.075	1.0%	$1.71
Conjurer's Closet#321	Borderless	$4.00	0.419	1.0%	$1.67
Rooftop Storm#306	Borderless	$1.99	0.837	1.0%	$1.67
Hullbreaker Horror#357	—	$3.92	0.419	1.0%	$1.64
Captivating Vampire#484	Poster	$3.31	0.419	0.8%	$1.39
Emrakul, the Promised End#5	—	$17.00	0.075	0.7%	$1.27
Cryptolith Rite#408	—	$3.00	0.419	0.7%	$1.26
Necroduality#365	—	$3.00	0.419	0.7%	$1.26