TDM·Released Apr 11, 2025·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Tarkir: Dragonstorm

Verdict

Bad bet

Box price (TCG low)

$419

$34.92 / pack

Expected value

$277

$23.12 / pack

Net EV per box

−$142

Return on a box

−33.8%

Chance to break even

16.1%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Mountain

Single price: $21.10
Share of box EV: 4.6%
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (45.1% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 1 boxes ($419)

Chasing Mountain by cracking boxes means spending about $419for a 50/50 shot — vs $21.10 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	108.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	49.09 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	12.12 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Extended art	10.67 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Halo foil	0.12 cards	11.3%	1 in 9

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −34%
Net EV per box: −$142
Chance to break even: 16%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$419Box price

$126Floor (10%)

$232Typical

$277Average (EV)

$526Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $126
Typical: $232
Average (EV): $277
Lucky (90%): $526

The average box ($277) is $45.25 above a typical box ($232) — 16%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $419
Standalone pack listing: $35.99
Implied pack (box / packs): $34.92
EV per pack: $23.12; $277 / box
Return opening box: −34%
Return buying packs at listing: −36%

The box is the better deal per pack ($34.92 vs $35.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −34% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$277	$280(+$2.24)
Variance	27112	27717(+2.2%)
Std deviation	$165	$166

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $21.10
Pull any copy: 1 in 2 (45.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 1
Cost of those boxes: $419
Boxes for 95% chance: 4
Cost at 95%: $1,676

You'd spend about $419 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mountain, vs $21.10 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $419

EV $277

Median $232

$0$113$227$340$453$567$680

Distribution of total card value per box across 34-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 16.1%
P(box ≥ expected value): 35.7%
Typical box (median): $232
Average box (EV): $280
Unlucky box (10th pct): $126
Lucky box (90th pct): $526
God box (99th pct): $839

Roughly 16% of boxes return more than the $419 you paid. You'd need to open about 18 boxes (~$7,542) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $232) is $45.25 below the $277 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $277 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Booster Funfoil

$16459%

Booster Fun

$45.1716%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$23.308%

Commander

$18.457%

Foil Basicfoil

$13.525%

Non Foil Basic

$12.224%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$0.270%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.240%

Foil Draconic C Ufoil

$0.110%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $277 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Mountain#290	—	$21.10	0.599	4.6%	$12.64
Misty Rainforest#116	Borderless	$486	0.024	4.2%	$11.66
Ugin, Eye of the Storms#399	Showcase	$108	0.108	4.2%	$11.63
Elspeth, Storm Slayer#401	Showcase	$88.89	0.108	3.5%	$9.60
Ugin, Eye of the Storms // Ugin, Eye of the Storms#382	Borderless	$38.54	0.240	3.3%	$9.25
Scalding Tarn#117	Borderless	$380	0.024	3.3%	$9.12
Elspeth, Storm Slayer#398	Borderless	$37.00	0.240	3.2%	$8.88
Scalding Tarn#112	Borderless	$123	0.072	3.2%	$8.86
Marsh Flats#115	Borderless	$368	0.024	3.2%	$8.83
Voice of Victory#331	Showcase	$17.50	0.486	3.1%	$8.50
Misty Rainforest#111	Borderless	$115	0.072	3.0%	$8.27
Arid Mesa#114	Borderless	$316	0.024	2.7%	$7.57
Verdant Catacombs#118	Borderless	$296	0.024	2.6%	$7.09
Craterhoof Behemoth#404	Showcase	$59.99	0.108	2.3%	$6.48
Forest#291	—	$10.33	0.599	2.2%	$6.19
Marsh Flats#110	Borderless	$82.77	0.072	2.1%	$5.96
Arid Mesa#109	Borderless	$76.20	0.072	2.0%	$5.49
Ugin, Eye of the Storms#409	Halo foil	$450	0.012	1.9%	$5.40
Verdant Catacombs#113	Borderless	$69.79	0.072	1.8%	$5.02
Swamp#289	—	$8.20	0.599	1.8%	$4.91
Mistrise Village#397	Borderless	$8.70	0.486	1.5%	$4.23
Plains#287	—	$6.25	0.599	1.3%	$3.74
Dracogenesis#402	Showcase	$33.76	0.108	1.3%	$3.65
Island#288	—	$6.00	0.599	1.3%	$3.59
Elspeth, Storm Slayer#411	Halo foil	$291	0.012	1.3%	$3.49
Ugin, Eye of the Storms#1	—	$40.00	0.086	1.2%	$3.43
Craterhoof Behemoth#346	Showcase	$17.00	0.199	1.2%	$3.38
Voice of Victory#33	—	$19.59	0.171	1.2%	$3.36
Mox Jasper#325	Showcase	$18.71	0.175	1.2%	$3.27
Elspeth, Storm Slayer#11	—	$37.45	0.086	1.2%	$3.21
Craterhoof Behemoth#414	Halo foil	$243	0.012	1.1%	$2.92
Betor, Kin to All#308	Showcase	$15.68	0.175	1.0%	$2.74
Colossal Grave-Reaver#90	Extended art	$8.99	0.267	0.9%	$2.40
Clarion Conqueror#400	Showcase	$20.75	0.108	0.8%	$2.24
Nature's Rhythm#349	Showcase	$4.60	0.486	0.8%	$2.23