Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($322) is $92.60 above a typical box ($229) — 29%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
86%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
14%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Tarkir: Dragonstorm collector boosterbox TCG low $490, expected value $322, median box $229, 14% break-even, −34% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$28.69 (9.8%) · Box +$91.52 (23.0%) over 3m · ROI −7.9%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($40.83 vs $42.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −34% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $14,210 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Mox Jasper, vs $1,757 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 49.09 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 12.12 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 10.67 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Halo foil | 0.120 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
| Serialized | 0.024 cards | 2.4% | 1 in 42 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference