Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($426) is $15.77 above a typical box ($411) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
94%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
6%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below.
Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate collector boosterbox TCG low $620, expected value $426, median box $411, 9% break-even, −31% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$1.67 (0.4%) · Box +$143 (30.0%) over 3m · ROI −20.3%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($51.67 vs $160 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −31% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,860 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ancient Copper Dragon, vs $209 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 120.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 31.41 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 25.51 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 3.08 cards | 95.4% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference