Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate
Chase card spotlight
Ancient Copper Dragon
Borderless
- Single price
- $194
- Share of box EV
- 10.4%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 5 (21.1% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 3 boxes ($1,650)
Chasing Ancient Copper Dragon by cracking boxes means spending about $1,650for a 50/50 shot — vs $194 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 120.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 31.41 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 25.51 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 3.08 cards | 95.4% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −20%
- Net EV per box
- −$110
- Chance to break even
- 20%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $280
- Typical
- $424
- Average (EV)
- $440
- Lucky (90%)
- $619
The average box ($440) is $15.67 above a typical box ($424) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $550
- Standalone pack listing
- $167
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $45.83
- EV per pack
- $36.67
- $440 / box
- Return opening box
- −20%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −78%
The box is the better deal per pack ($45.83 vs $167 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −20% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $440 | $440(-$0.41) |
| Variance | 17834 | 17687(-0.8%) |
| Std deviation | $134 | $133 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $194
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 5 (21.1% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 3
- Cost of those boxes
- $1,650
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 12
- Cost at 95%
- $6,600
You'd spend about $1,650 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ancient Copper Dragon, vs $194 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 18-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 19.6%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 45.3%
- Typical box (median)
- $424
- Average box (EV)
- $440
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $280
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $619
- God box (99th pct)
- $802
Roughly 20% of boxes return more than the $550 you paid. You'd need to open about 14 boxes (~$7,700) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $424) is $15.67 below the $440 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $440 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $440 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient Copper Dragon#368 | Borderless | $194 | 0.237 | 10.4% | $45.88 |
| Ancient Silver Dragon#366 | Borderless | $127 | 0.237 | 6.9% | $30.22 |
| Ancient Copper Dragon#396 | Showcase | $116 | 0.237 | 6.2% | $27.42 |
| Ancient Brass Dragon#367 | Borderless | $92.24 | 0.237 | 5.0% | $21.86 |
| Ancient Gold Dragon#365 | Borderless | $60.00 | 0.237 | 3.2% | $14.22 |
| Ancient Silver Dragon#382 | Showcase | $56.94 | 0.237 | 3.1% | $13.49 |
| Displacer Kitten#560 | Extended art | $35.27 | 0.369 | 3.0% | $13.01 |
| Ancient Brass Dragon#389 | Showcase | $46.00 | 0.237 | 2.5% | $10.90 |
| Morphic Pool#603 | Extended art | $27.74 | 0.369 | 2.3% | $10.23 |
| Luxury Suite#602 | Extended art | $27.50 | 0.369 | 2.3% | $10.14 |
| Ancient Gold Dragon#376 | Showcase | $37.01 | 0.237 | 2.0% | $8.77 |
| Astral Dragon#613 | Extended art | $18.99 | 0.444 | 1.9% | $8.44 |
| Ancient Copper Dragon#161 | — | $120 | 0.068 | 1.9% | $8.18 |
| Ancient Bronze Dragon#369 | Borderless | $34.00 | 0.237 | 1.8% | $8.06 |
| Black Market Connections#620 | Extended art | $17.00 | 0.444 | 1.7% | $7.56 |
| Sea of Clouds#605 | Extended art | $19.60 | 0.369 | 1.6% | $7.23 |
| Passionate Archaeologist#633 | Extended art | $105 | 0.066 | 1.6% | $6.88 |
| Captain N'ghathrod#640 | Extended art | $97.79 | 0.066 | 1.5% | $6.41 |
| Firkraag, Cunning Instigator#642 | Extended art | $87.79 | 0.066 | 1.3% | $5.76 |
| Battle Angels of Tyr#370 | Borderless | $24.14 | 0.237 | 1.3% | $5.72 |
| Bountiful Promenade#601 | Extended art | $15.00 | 0.369 | 1.3% | $5.53 |
| Reflecting Pool#604 | Extended art | $14.36 | 0.369 | 1.2% | $5.30 |
| Delayed Blast Fireball#630 | Extended art | $11.80 | 0.444 | 1.2% | $5.24 |
| Baeloth Barrityl, Entertainer#627 | Extended art | $79.60 | 0.066 | 1.2% | $5.22 |
| Spire Garden#606 | Extended art | $12.91 | 0.369 | 1.1% | $4.76 |
| Kindred Discovery#565 | Extended art | $12.77 | 0.369 | 1.1% | $4.71 |
| Zellix, Sanity Flayer#619 | Extended art | $71.03 | 0.066 | 1.1% | $4.66 |
| Bothersome Quasit#628 | Extended art | $10.00 | 0.444 | 1.0% | $4.44 |
| Displacer Kitten#63 | — | $30.82 | 0.136 | 1.0% | $4.20 |
| Burakos, Party Leader#622 | Extended art | $63.01 | 0.066 | 0.9% | $4.13 |
| Ancient Bronze Dragon#406 | Showcase | $17.19 | 0.237 | 0.9% | $4.07 |
| Luxury Suite#355 | — | $28.06 | 0.136 | 0.9% | $3.83 |
| Ancient Silver Dragon#56 | — | $55.50 | 0.068 | 0.9% | $3.78 |
| Descent into Avernus#580 | Extended art | $9.99 | 0.369 | 0.8% | $3.68 |
| Morphic Pool#357 | — | $27.00 | 0.136 | 0.8% | $3.68 |