Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($127) is $17.40 above a typical box ($110) — 14%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
100%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
0%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 62nd percentile — 62% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Throne of Eldraine collector boosterbox TCG low $436, expected value $127, median box $110, 0% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$3.02 (2.5%) · Box +$5.10 (1.2%) over 3m · ROI +0.4%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
Standalone packs list at $30.00 vs $36.33 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $10.62/pack (−65% return either way).
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $1,308 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Wishclaw Talisman, vs $154 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 123.50 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 40.38 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 15.36 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 0.758 cards | 53.1% | 1 in 2 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference