Throne of Eldraine
Chase card spotlight
Wishclaw Talisman
Extended art
- Single price
- $117
- Share of box EV
- 27.4%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (25.2% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 3 boxes ($1,260)
Chasing Wishclaw Talisman by cracking boxes means spending about $1,260for a 50/50 shot — vs $117 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 128.17 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 35.72 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 15.36 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 0.76 cards | 53.1% | 1 in 2 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −71%
- Net EV per box
- −$297
- Chance to break even
- 0%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $68.69
- Typical
- $107
- Average (EV)
- $123
- Lucky (90%)
- $204
The average box ($123) is $16.36 above a typical box ($107) — 13%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $420
- Standalone pack listing
- $30.00
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $35.00
- EV per pack
- $10.29
- $123 / box
- Return opening box
- −71%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −66%
Standalone packs list at $30.00 vs $35.00 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $10.29/pack (−66% return either way).
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $123 | $124(+$0.11) |
| Variance | 3197 | 3175(-0.7%) |
| Std deviation | $56.54 | $56.35 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $117
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 4 (25.2% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 3
- Cost of those boxes
- $1,260
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 9
- Cost at 95%
- $3,780
You'd spend about $1,260 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Wishclaw Talisman, vs $117 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 34-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 0.1%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 38.5%
- Typical box (median)
- $107
- Average box (EV)
- $124
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $68.69
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $204
- God box (99th pct)
- $308
Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $420 you paid. You'd need to open about 5349 boxes (~$2,246,580) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $107) is $16.36 below the $123 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $123 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $123 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wishclaw Talisman#357 | Extended art | $117 | 0.290 | 27.4% | $33.78 |
| The Great Henge#370 | Extended art | $153 | 0.145 | 18.0% | $22.22 |
| Mirrormade#347 | Extended art | $61.90 | 0.290 | 14.5% | $17.93 |
| Faeburrow Elder#380 | Extended art | $43.74 | 0.290 | 10.3% | $12.67 |
| Castle Garenbrig#388 | Extended art | $40.11 | 0.290 | 9.4% | $11.62 |
| Castle Locthwain#389 | Extended art | $27.00 | 0.290 | 6.3% | $7.82 |
| Emry, Lurker of the Loch#342 | Extended art | $24.22 | 0.290 | 5.7% | $7.02 |
| Ayara, First of Locthwain#350 | Extended art | $21.94 | 0.290 | 5.2% | $6.36 |
| Return of the Wildspeaker#373 | Extended art | $18.93 | 0.290 | 4.4% | $5.48 |
| Torbran, Thane of Red Fell#367 | Extended art | $18.63 | 0.290 | 4.4% | $5.40 |
| Once Upon a Time#371 | Extended art | $18.24 | 0.290 | 4.3% | $5.28 |
| Embercleave#359 | Extended art | $32.98 | 0.145 | 3.9% | $4.78 |
| The Great Henge#161 | — | $67.00 | 0.063 | 3.4% | $4.24 |
| Stonecoil Serpent#385 | Extended art | $14.00 | 0.290 | 3.3% | $4.06 |
| Fabled Passage#391 | Extended art | $11.69 | 0.290 | 2.7% | $3.39 |
| Midnight Clock#346 | Extended art | $9.80 | 0.290 | 2.3% | $2.84 |
| Questing Beast#372 | Extended art | $19.60 | 0.145 | 2.3% | $2.84 |
| Mystic Sanctuary#247 | — | $3.75 | 0.701 | 2.1% | $2.63 |
| Irencrag Feat#362 | Extended art | $9.03 | 0.290 | 2.1% | $2.62 |
| Charming Prince#335 | Extended art | $8.49 | 0.290 | 2.0% | $2.46 |
| Castle Vantress#390 | Extended art | $8.10 | 0.290 | 1.9% | $2.35 |
| Hushbringer#339 | Extended art | $7.92 | 0.290 | 1.9% | $2.29 |
| Oko, Thief of Crowns#271 | Borderless | $8.88 | 0.253 | 1.8% | $2.24 |
| Castle Embereth#387 | Extended art | $7.54 | 0.290 | 1.8% | $2.18 |
| Stormfist Crusader#383 | Extended art | $6.00 | 0.290 | 1.4% | $1.74 |
| Rankle, Master of Pranks#356 | Extended art | $11.70 | 0.145 | 1.4% | $1.69 |
| Brazen Borrower // Petty Theft#281 | Showcase | $6.00 | 0.253 | 1.2% | $1.52 |
| Castle Ardenvale#386 | Extended art | $5.00 | 0.290 | 1.2% | $1.45 |
| The Magic Mirror#345 | Extended art | $9.69 | 0.145 | 1.1% | $1.40 |
| Piper of the Swarm#355 | Extended art | $4.84 | 0.290 | 1.1% | $1.40 |
| Crashing Drawbridge#217 | — | $2.00 | 0.701 | 1.1% | $1.40 |
| Witch's Cottage#249 | — | $1.80 | 0.701 | 1.0% | $1.26 |
| Escape to the Wilds#379 | Extended art | $4.00 | 0.290 | 0.9% | $1.16 |
| Clackbridge Troll#353 | Extended art | $4.00 | 0.290 | 0.9% | $1.16 |
| Fervent Champion#360 | Extended art | $4.00 | 0.290 | 0.9% | $1.16 |