AFR·Released Jul 23, 2021·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Adventures in the Forgotten Realms

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$299

$24.91 / pack

Expected value

$143

$11.94 / pack

Net EV per box

−$156

Return on a box

−52.1%

Chance to break even

1.1%

Boxes for 95% one win

273

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Old Gnawbone

Borderless

Single price: $98.06
Share of box EV: 20.4%
Pull any copy: 1 in 4 (25.8% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 2 boxes ($598)

Chasing Old Gnawbone by cracking boxes means spending about $598for a 50/50 shot — vs $98.06 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

Loading opener...

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	96.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	46.63 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	30.38 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	6.99 cards	99.9%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −52%
Net EV per box: −$156
Chance to break even: 1%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$299Box price

$86.44Floor (10%)

$132Typical

$143Average (EV)

$216Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $86.44
Typical: $132
Average (EV): $143
Lucky (90%): $216

The average box ($143) is $11.21 above a typical box ($132) — 8%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $299
Standalone pack listing: $34.95
Implied pack (box / packs): $24.91
EV per pack: $11.94; $143 / box
Return opening box: −52%
Return buying packs at listing: −66%

The box is the better deal per pack ($24.91 vs $34.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −52% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$143	$143(+$0.06)
Variance	2837	2802(-1.2%)
Std deviation	$53.26	$52.93

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $98.06
Pull any copy: 1 in 4 (25.8% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 2
Cost of those boxes: $598
Boxes for 95% chance: 9
Cost at 95%: $2,690

You'd spend about $598 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Old Gnawbone, vs $98.06 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $299

EV $143

Median $132

$0$80$160$240$320$400$480

Distribution of total card value per box across 24-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 1.1%
P(box ≥ expected value): 42.0%
Typical box (median): $132
Average box (EV): $143
Unlucky box (10th pct): $86.44
Lucky box (90th pct): $216
God box (99th pct): $303

Roughly 1% of boxes return more than the $299 you paid. You'd need to open about 273 boxes (~$81,608) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $132) is $11.21 below the $143 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $143 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Extended Commander Rare/Mythic

$35.3125%

Foil Rare/Mythic Alt Artfoil

$33.8024%

Rare/Mythic Showcase

$30.1921%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$21.1715%

Extended Core Rare/Mythic

$16.2811%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$3.302%

Foil Commonfoil

$1.771%

Foil Common Uncommon Showcasefoil

$1.341%

Common Uncommon Showcase

$0.100%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $143 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Old Gnawbone#296	Borderless	$98.06	0.299	20.4%	$29.28
Tiamat#298	Borderless	$56.40	0.299	11.8%	$16.84
Circle of Dreams Druid#383	Extended art	$11.99	0.549	4.6%	$6.58
Teleportation Circle#364	Extended art	$8.60	0.549	3.3%	$4.72
Old Gnawbone#197	—	$51.05	0.086	3.1%	$4.38
Xorn#322	Showcase	$6.25	0.597	2.6%	$3.73
Treasure Vault#358	Showcase	$5.75	0.597	2.4%	$3.43
Lolth, Spider Queen#284	Borderless	$9.67	0.299	2.0%	$2.89
Delina, Wild Mage#317	Showcase	$4.75	0.597	2.0%	$2.84
Grim Hireling#294	Extended art	$11.95	0.231	1.9%	$2.76
Wand of Orcus#297	Extended art	$11.00	0.231	1.8%	$2.54
Robe of Stars#280	Extended art	$10.89	0.231	1.8%	$2.51
Klauth, Unrivaled Ancient#320	Extended art	$21.75	0.115	1.8%	$2.51
Hobgoblin Bandit Lord#379	Extended art	$4.20	0.549	1.6%	$2.30
Circle of Dreams Druid#176	—	$12.95	0.171	1.5%	$2.22
The Book of Exalted Deeds#359	Extended art	$7.80	0.274	1.5%	$2.14
Mantle of the Ancients#277	Extended art	$8.26	0.231	1.3%	$1.91
Winged Boots#289	Extended art	$8.00	0.231	1.3%	$1.85
Tiamat#235	—	$21.35	0.086	1.3%	$1.83
Reckless Endeavor#302	Extended art	$7.49	0.231	1.2%	$1.73
Neverwinter Hydra#310	Extended art	$7.14	0.231	1.2%	$1.65
Tasha's Hideous Laughter#368	Extended art	$2.99	0.549	1.1%	$1.64
Guardian of Faith#362	Extended art	$2.98	0.549	1.1%	$1.64
Minn, Wily Illusionist#285	Extended art	$6.77	0.231	1.1%	$1.56
Den of the Bugbear#351	Showcase	$2.37	0.597	1.0%	$1.42
Wulfgar of Icewind Dale#329	Extended art	$6.07	0.231	1.0%	$1.40
Prosper, Tome-Bound#324	Extended art	$12.01	0.115	1.0%	$1.39
Lair of the Hydra#356	Showcase	$2.24	0.597	0.9%	$1.34
Teleportation Circle#39	—	$7.69	0.171	0.9%	$1.32
Inferno of the Star Mounts#293	Borderless	$4.00	0.299	0.8%	$1.19
Ebondeath, Dracolich#292	Borderless	$3.95	0.299	0.8%	$1.18
Fighter Class#222	—	$6.88	0.171	0.8%	$1.18
Zariel, Archduke of Avernus#285	Borderless	$3.70	0.299	0.8%	$1.10
Iymrith, Desert Doom#290	Borderless	$3.69	0.299	0.8%	$1.10
The Deck of Many Things#392	Extended art	$4.00	0.274	0.8%	$1.10