Methodology
How Why we don't crack turns Wizards' published collation and live market prices into expected value, pull rates, and simulated openings.
Collation and simulation
Pack contents come from MTGJSON collector-booster collation. We simulate openings by weighted random draw using the same engine server-side and in the interactive opener.
MTGJSON sometimes lists ultra-rare chase cards in both a dedicated rare slot and a high-frequency showcase sheet. Our build pipeline deduplicates serialized, poster, and surge-foil cards when a dedicated home slot exists.
Pricing
Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low via TCGCSV. Opened cards use the lowest real market signal (TCGplayer min of low and market when a sale exists, else cross-market fallback via Scryfall). Cards under $0.25 count as bulk.
Statistics
Expected value and variance are computed in closed form from collation weights. Distribution charts use Monte Carlo simulation. Shareable openings use a seeded PRNG so URLs reproduce exact pulls.