Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Chase card spotlight
Doubling Season
Borderless
- Single price
- $25.00
- Share of box EV
- 7.3%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 2 (45.1% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 1 boxes ($430)
Chasing Doubling Season by cracking boxes means spending about $430for a 50/50 shot — vs $25.00 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.46 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 25.40 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Surge foil | 17.82 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Showcase | 15.55 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 12.65 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Fracture foil | 0.12 cards | 11.3% | 1 in 9 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −52%
- Net EV per box
- −$223
- Chance to break even
- 3%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $120
- Typical
- $173
- Average (EV)
- $207
- Lucky (90%)
- $289
The average box ($207) is $33.86 above a typical box ($173) — 16%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $430
- Standalone pack listing
- $39.95
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $35.83
- EV per pack
- $17.21
- $207 / box
- Return opening box
- −52%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −57%
The box is the better deal per pack ($35.83 vs $39.95 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −52% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $207 | $206(-$0.27) |
| Variance | 39457 | 39524(+0.2%) |
| Std deviation | $199 | $199 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $25.00
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 2 (45.1% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 1
- Cost of those boxes
- $430
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 4
- Cost at 95%
- $1,720
You'd spend about $430 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Doubling Season, vs $25.00 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 28-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 3.4%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 29.6%
- Typical box (median)
- $173
- Average box (EV)
- $206
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $120
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $289
- God box (99th pct)
- $553
Roughly 3% of boxes return more than the $430 you paid. You'd need to open about 86 boxes (~$36,980) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $173) is $33.86 below the $207 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $207 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $207 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doubling Season#11 | Borderless | $25.00 | 0.600 | 7.3% | $15.00 |
| Shadowspear#17 | Borderless | $19.00 | 0.600 | 5.5% | $11.40 |
| Trouble in Pairs#3 | Borderless | $17.00 | 0.600 | 4.9% | $10.20 |
| Super Shredder#217 | Borderless | $31.78 | 0.281 | 4.3% | $8.94 |
| All Will Be One#8 | Borderless | $13.40 | 0.600 | 3.9% | $8.04 |
| Undercity Sewers#20 | Borderless | $11.09 | 0.600 | 3.2% | $6.65 |
| Super Shredder#285 | — | $60.00 | 0.108 | 3.1% | $6.48 |
| Krang, Utrom Warlord#221 | Borderless | $21.16 | 0.281 | 2.9% | $5.95 |
| Underworld Breach#10 | Borderless | $8.45 | 0.600 | 2.5% | $5.07 |
| Dark Leo & Shredder#220 | Borderless | $17.99 | 0.281 | 2.4% | $5.06 |
| Krang, Utrom Warlord#290 | — | $38.00 | 0.108 | 2.0% | $4.10 |
| Leonardo, Sewer Samurai#301 | Borderless | $2,710 | 1.50e-3 | 2.0% | $4.07 |
| Michelangelo, Weirdness to 11#214 | Borderless | $6.98 | 0.562 | 1.9% | $3.93 |
| Donatello, Mutant Mechanic#302 | Borderless | $2,450 | 1.50e-3 | 1.8% | $3.68 |
| The Ooze#277 | Extended art | $6.53 | 0.562 | 1.8% | $3.67 |
| Super Shredder#295 | Fracture foil | $300 | 0.012 | 1.7% | $3.60 |
| Umezawa's Jitte#19 | Borderless | $5.95 | 0.600 | 1.7% | $3.57 |
| Mikey & Leo, Chaos & Order#247 | Showcase | $6.08 | 0.562 | 1.7% | $3.42 |
| Raphael, Ninja Destroyer#303 | Borderless | $2,175 | 1.50e-3 | 1.6% | $3.26 |
| Michelangelo, Improviser#219 | Borderless | $10.99 | 0.281 | 1.5% | $3.09 |
| Raph & Mikey, Troublemakers#250 | Showcase | $5.49 | 0.562 | 1.5% | $3.09 |
| Michelangelo, Improviser#304 | Borderless | $2,000 | 1.50e-3 | 1.5% | $3.00 |
| Mikey & Leo, Chaos & Order#200 | Borderless | $5.29 | 0.562 | 1.4% | $2.97 |
| Rhythm of the Wild#12 | Borderless | $4.84 | 0.600 | 1.4% | $2.90 |
| Brainstorm#4 | Borderless | $4.50 | 0.600 | 1.3% | $2.70 |
| Teleportation Circle#2 | Borderless | $4.20 | 0.600 | 1.2% | $2.52 |
| Michelangelo, Weirdness to 11#288 | — | $23.00 | 0.108 | 1.2% | $2.48 |
| Ashcoat of the Shadow Swarm#6 | Borderless | $3.99 | 0.600 | 1.2% | $2.39 |
| Waves of Aggression#13 | Borderless | $3.73 | 0.600 | 1.1% | $2.24 |
| Donatello, Mutant Mechanic#216 | Borderless | $7.75 | 0.281 | 1.1% | $2.18 |
| Krang, Utrom Warlord#300 | Fracture foil | $181 | 0.012 | 1.1% | $2.17 |
| Heroes in a Half Shell#96 | Surge foil | $301 | 6.62e-3 | 1.0% | $2.00 |
| Raphael, Ninja Destroyer#218 | Borderless | $6.81 | 0.281 | 0.9% | $1.91 |
| Leonardo, the Balance#83 | Surge foil | $280 | 6.62e-3 | 0.9% | $1.85 |
| Super Shredder#83 | — | $18.67 | 0.099 | 0.9% | $1.85 |