Pack contents simulated from Wizards' published collector-booster collation (via MTGJSON). Sealed cost uses TCGplayer low (via TCGCSV); cards are valued at the lowest real market signal — TCGplayer (last sale when one exists, else low) or Cardmarket (via Scryfall) — so a lone unsold listing can't inflate a card. Cards under a small bulk threshold count as $0. Prices refresh daily and are estimates — not financial advice.

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WOE·Released Sep 8, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Wilds of Eldraine collector booster EV

Verdict
Money pit
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Set snapshot

Box price
$870
$72.50/pack
Expected value
$358
$29.82/pack
Net EV
−$512
Break-even
3.2%

Return if cracked at TCG low: −59%

Smothering Tithe

$1,717 · 1 in 74 · 1% / box

SimulateOutlookFactsEV historyCrack or holdPull rates

What opening a box looks like

Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.

$174
$284
$358
$558
$870
Floor (10%)
$174
Typical
$284
Average (EV)
$358
Lucky (90%)
$558
Box price
$870

The average box ($358) is $73.49 above a typical box ($284) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Value distribution

10,000 simulated boxes

Below box cost

97%

lose money on resale

At or above cost

3%

break even or profit

profit zone
Box $870
EV $358 · 70th
Median $284
$0$233$467$700$933$1,167$1,400

Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 70th percentile — 70% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.

Key facts

Wilds of Eldraine collector boosterbox TCG low $870, expected value $358, median box $284, 3% break-even, −59% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON

FAQ for search & AI citations
What is the expected value of a Wilds of Eldraine collector booster box?
The expected value (EV) of a Wilds of Eldraine collector booster box is $358 based on Wizards' published collation and current TCGplayer prices. The typical (median) box is worth $284.
What are the odds of breaking even on Wilds of Eldraine collector boosters?
About 3% of simulated Wilds of Eldraine collector boxes return at least the sealed box price ($870). This uses Monte Carlo simulation with corrected MTGJSON collation weights.
Should I crack or hold Wilds of Eldraine sealed?
Money pit. EV is $358 vs sealed $870 (−59% return if cracked at TCG low). See the crack-vs-hold comparison on this page for singles targets.

EV over time

Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price

EV +$11.47 (3.3%) · Box +$35.00 (4.2%) over 3m · ROI −0.4%

Box EV Box price

Should you crack it?

Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price
$870
Standalone pack listing
$90.00
Implied pack (box / packs)
$72.50
EV per pack
$29.82
$358 / box
Return opening box
−59%
Return buying packs at listing
−67%

The box is the better deal per pack ($72.50 vs $90.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −59% return.

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Single price
$420
Pull any copy
1 in 18 (5.7% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance
12
Cost of those boxes
$10,440
Boxes for 95% chance
50
Cost at 95%
$43,500

You'd spend about $10,440 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Smothering Tithe, vs $420 to buy it now.

Chase pull rates

Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.

Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

TreatmentExpected / boxP(≥1 / box)1 in N boxes
Standard108.00 cards100.0%Every time
Showcase48.66 cards100.0%Every time
Extended art16.80 cards100.0%1 in 2
Borderless6.21 cards99.8%1 in 2
Confetti foil0.336 cards28.5%1 in 4

All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.

Reference