WOE·Released Sep 8, 2023·12 packs / box · 16 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Wilds of Eldraine

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$770

$64.17 / pack

Expected value

$344

$28.65 / pack

Net EV per box

−$426

Return on a box

−55.3%

Chance to break even

4.2%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Rhystic Study

Showcase

Single price: $149
Share of box EV: 6.7%
Pull any copy: 1 in 7 (14.2% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 5 boxes ($3,850)

Chasing Rhystic Study by cracking boxes means spending about $3,850for a 50/50 shot — vs $149 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	120.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	48.14 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	17.36 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Borderless	6.08 cards	99.8%	1 in 2
Confetti foil	0.42 cards	34.4%	1 in 3

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −55%
Net EV per box: −$426
Chance to break even: 4%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$770Box price

$173Floor (10%)

$284Typical

$344Average (EV)

$541Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $173
Typical: $284
Average (EV): $344
Lucky (90%): $541

The average box ($344) is $59.82 above a typical box ($284) — 17%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $770
Standalone pack listing: $85.00
Implied pack (box / packs): $64.17
EV per pack: $28.65; $344 / box
Return opening box: −55%
Return buying packs at listing: −66%

The box is the better deal per pack ($64.17 vs $85.00 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −55% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$344	$345(+$1.53)
Variance	56415	56859(+0.8%)
Std deviation	$238	$238

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $149
Pull any copy: 1 in 7 (14.2% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 5
Cost of those boxes: $3,850
Boxes for 95% chance: 18
Cost at 95%: $13,860

You'd spend about $3,850 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Rhystic Study, vs $149 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $770

EV $344

Median $284

$0$208$417$625$833$1,042$1,250

Distribution of total card value per box across 25-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 4.2%
P(box ≥ expected value): 32.8%
Typical box (median): $284
Average box (EV): $345
Unlucky box (10th pct): $173
Lucky box (90th pct): $541
God box (99th pct): $1,434

Roughly 4% of boxes return more than the $770 you paid. You'd need to open about 71 boxes (~$54,669) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $284) is $59.82 below the $344 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $344 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Alt Frame Foilfoil

$16448%

Enchanting Tales Rare/Mythic

$10530%

Extended Art

$34.0210%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$14.634%

Rare/Mythic Showcase

$9.163%

Foil Extended Artfoil

$5.702%

Foil Enchanting Tales Uncommonfoil

$3.601%

Foil Full Art Landfoil

$3.461%

Enchanting Tales Uncommon

$2.171%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$1.791%

Foil Commonfoil

$0.740%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $344 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Rhystic Study#25	Showcase	$149	0.154	6.7%	$22.90
Smothering Tithe#67	Borderless	$387	0.057	6.4%	$22.02
Rhystic Study#71	Borderless	$367	0.057	6.1%	$20.86
Rhystic Study#91	Confetti foil	$1,127	0.017	5.5%	$18.99
Smothering Tithe#87	Confetti foil	$1,029	0.017	5.0%	$17.35
Beseech the Mirror#336	Extended art	$89.90	0.136	3.6%	$12.25
Agatha's Soul Cauldron#366	Extended art	$83.67	0.136	3.3%	$11.40
Smothering Tithe#13	Showcase	$70.67	0.154	3.2%	$10.86
Throne of Eldraine#40	Extended art	$37.00	0.272	2.9%	$10.08
Talion, the Kindly Lord#301	Borderless	$32.49	0.301	2.8%	$9.77
Aggravated Assault#39	Showcase	$25.00	0.307	2.2%	$7.69
Necropotence#31	Showcase	$45.12	0.154	2.0%	$6.94
Necropotence#74	Borderless	$119	0.057	2.0%	$6.75
Parallel Lives#58	Showcase	$41.80	0.154	1.9%	$6.42
Doubling Season#52	Showcase	$40.94	0.154	1.8%	$6.29
Greater Auramancy#4	Showcase	$40.76	0.154	1.8%	$6.27
Fiery Emancipation#42	Showcase	$14.00	0.421	1.7%	$5.90
Necropotence#94	Confetti foil	$335	0.017	1.6%	$5.64
Bitterblossom#27	Showcase	$35.01	0.154	1.6%	$5.38
Defense of the Heart#51	Showcase	$33.75	0.154	1.5%	$5.19
Leyline of Anticipation#23	Showcase	$12.25	0.421	1.5%	$5.16
Grave Pact#29	Showcase	$32.86	0.154	1.5%	$5.05
Land Tax#9	Showcase	$31.96	0.154	1.4%	$4.91
Primal Vigor#59	Showcase	$11.33	0.421	1.4%	$4.77
Omniscience#90	Confetti foil	$281	0.017	1.4%	$4.73
Aggravated Assault#76	Borderless	$39.53	0.114	1.3%	$4.49
Omniscience#70	Borderless	$75.22	0.057	1.2%	$4.28
Shared Animosity#49	Showcase	$9.93	0.421	1.2%	$4.18
Greater Auramancy#64	Borderless	$68.69	0.057	1.1%	$3.91
Parallel Lives#83	Borderless	$68.55	0.057	1.1%	$3.90
Alela, Cunning Conqueror#34	Extended art	$27.99	0.136	1.1%	$3.81
Defense of the Heart#80	Borderless	$66.80	0.057	1.1%	$3.80
Agatha's Soul Cauldron#242	—	$39.92	0.086	1.0%	$3.42
Aggravated Assault#96	Confetti foil	$99.17	0.034	1.0%	$3.34
Court of Garenbrig#33	Extended art	$11.90	0.272	0.9%	$3.24