DMR·Released Jan 13, 2023·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Dominaria Remastered

Verdict

Bad bet

Box price (TCG low)

$489

$40.75 / pack

Expected value

$306

$25.46 / pack

Net EV per box

−$183

Return on a box

−37.5%

Chance to break even

2.8%

Boxes for 95% one win

108

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Vampiric Tutor

Borderless

Single price: $120
Share of box EV: 9.8%
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (22.1% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 3 boxes ($1,467)

Chasing Vampiric Tutor by cracking boxes means spending about $1,467for a 50/50 shot — vs $120 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	161.88 cards	100.0%	Every time
Borderless	18.12 cards	100.0%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −38%
Net EV per box: −$183
Chance to break even: 3%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$489Box price

$202Floor (10%)

$298Typical

$306Average (EV)

$422Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $202
Typical: $298
Average (EV): $306
Lucky (90%): $422

The average box ($306) is $7.31 above a typical box ($298) — 2%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $489
Standalone pack listing: $46.44
Implied pack (box / packs): $40.75
EV per pack: $25.46; $306 / box
Return opening box: −38%
Return buying packs at listing: −45%

The box is the better deal per pack ($40.75 vs $46.44 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −38% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$306	$306(+$0.59)
Variance	7448	7419(-0.4%)
Std deviation	$86.30	$86.13

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $120
Pull any copy: 1 in 5 (22.1% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 3
Cost of those boxes: $1,467
Boxes for 95% chance: 11
Cost at 95%: $5,379

You'd spend about $1,467 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Vampiric Tutor, vs $120 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $489

EV $306

Median $298

$0$133$267$400$533$667$800

Distribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 2.8%
P(box ≥ expected value): 46.6%
Typical box (median): $298
Average box (EV): $306
Unlucky box (10th pct): $202
Lucky box (90th pct): $422
God box (99th pct): $536

Roughly 3% of boxes return more than the $489 you paid. You'd need to open about 108 boxes (~$52,812) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $298) is $7.31 below the $306 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $306 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Rare/Mythic Showcasefoil

$94.8231%

Rare/Mythic Borderless

$88.4629%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$54.8018%

Rare/Mythic Retro

$44.5615%

Foil Common Uncommon Showcasefoil

$8.833%

Foil Basicfoil

$4.011%

Foil Commonfoil

$3.831%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$3.671%

Common Uncommon Showcase

$2.541%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $306 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Vampiric Tutor#430	Borderless	$120	0.250	9.8%	$30.05
Force of Will#418	Borderless	$88.44	0.250	7.2%	$22.07
Enlightened Tutor#412	Borderless	$42.38	0.499	6.9%	$21.16
Worldly Tutor#442	Borderless	$41.62	0.499	6.8%	$20.78
Force of Will#284	—	$99.00	0.145	4.7%	$14.34
Vampiric Tutor#314	—	$88.00	0.145	4.2%	$12.74
Gamble#433	Borderless	$22.99	0.499	3.8%	$11.48
Sylvan Library#441	Borderless	$44.88	0.250	3.7%	$11.20
Urza's Incubator#453	Borderless	$44.53	0.250	3.6%	$11.11
Mystical Tutor#421	Borderless	$19.79	0.499	3.2%	$9.88
Yawgmoth, Thran Physician#431	Borderless	$38.41	0.250	3.1%	$9.59
Entomb#426	Borderless	$17.68	0.499	2.9%	$8.83
Enlightened Tutor#263	—	$28.00	0.290	2.7%	$8.11
Birds of Paradise#336	—	$27.52	0.290	2.6%	$7.97
Maze of Ith#456	Borderless	$15.00	0.499	2.5%	$7.49
Exploration#339	—	$25.00	0.290	2.4%	$7.24
Mystic Remora#420	Borderless	$13.00	0.499	2.1%	$6.49
Yawgmoth, Thran Physician#315	—	$43.96	0.145	2.1%	$6.37
Enlightened Tutor#6	—	$35.00	0.171	2.0%	$6.00
Force of Will#50	—	$68.93	0.086	1.9%	$5.91
Worldly Tutor#353	—	$19.00	0.290	1.8%	$5.50
Birds of Paradise#439	Borderless	$11.00	0.499	1.8%	$5.49
No Mercy#427	Borderless	$21.99	0.250	1.8%	$5.49
Exploration#159	—	$29.72	0.171	1.7%	$5.09
Vampiric Tutor#108	—	$58.80	0.086	1.6%	$5.04
Lyra Dawnbringer#413	Borderless	$18.81	0.250	1.5%	$4.69
Gamble#321	—	$16.05	0.290	1.5%	$4.65
Urza, Lord High Artificer#423	Borderless	$17.43	0.250	1.4%	$4.35
Mystical Tutor#289	—	$15.00	0.290	1.4%	$4.34
Urza's Incubator#392	—	$29.82	0.145	1.4%	$4.32
Worldly Tutor#185	—	$25.00	0.171	1.4%	$4.29
Mystic Remora#288	—	$14.47	0.290	1.4%	$4.19
Sylvan Library#350	—	$28.00	0.145	1.3%	$4.06
Entomb#304	—	$14.00	0.290	1.3%	$4.06
Yawgmoth, Thran Physician#110	—	$36.00	0.086	1.0%	$3.09