Strixhaven: School of Mages
Chase card spotlight
Demonic Tutor
Borderless
- Single price
- $512
- Share of box EV
- 15.8%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 9 (11.2% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 6 boxes ($3,768)
Chasing Demonic Tutor by cracking boxes means spending about $3,768for a 50/50 shot — vs $512 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 29.15 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 21.94 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 20.91 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −39%
- Net EV per box
- −$243
- Chance to break even
- 12%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $210
- Typical
- $328
- Average (EV)
- $385
- Lucky (90%)
- $717
The average box ($385) is $57.25 above a typical box ($328) — 15%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $628
- Standalone pack listing
- $59.99
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $52.33
- EV per pack
- $32.08
- $385 / box
- Return opening box
- −39%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −47%
The box is the better deal per pack ($52.33 vs $59.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −39% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $385 | $384(-$0.86) |
| Variance | 40095 | 39433(-1.6%) |
| Std deviation | $200 | $199 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $512
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 9 (11.2% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 6
- Cost of those boxes
- $3,768
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 24
- Cost at 95%
- $15,072
You'd spend about $3,768 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Demonic Tutor, vs $512 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 21-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 11.9%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 33.7%
- Typical box (median)
- $328
- Average box (EV)
- $384
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $210
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $717
- God box (99th pct)
- $1,034
Roughly 12% of boxes return more than the $628 you paid. You'd need to open about 24 boxes (~$15,072) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $328) is $57.25 below the $385 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $385 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $385 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demonic Tutor#90 | Borderless | $512 | 0.119 | 15.8% | $60.88 |
| Dark Ritual#89 | Borderless | $81.23 | 0.238 | 5.0% | $19.31 |
| Tainted Pact#96 | Borderless | $159 | 0.119 | 4.9% | $18.91 |
| Demonic Tutor#27 | Showcase | $129 | 0.119 | 4.0% | $15.34 |
| Ephemerate#68 | Borderless | $51.13 | 0.238 | 3.2% | $12.15 |
| Teferi's Protection#74 | Borderless | $102 | 0.119 | 3.1% | $12.10 |
| Brainstorm#76 | Borderless | $49.00 | 0.238 | 3.0% | $11.65 |
| Counterspell#78 | Borderless | $43.31 | 0.238 | 2.7% | $10.29 |
| Grapeshot#102 | Borderless | $39.99 | 0.238 | 2.5% | $9.50 |
| Teferi's Protection#11 | Showcase | $64.00 | 0.119 | 2.0% | $7.61 |
| Swords to Plowshares#73 | Borderless | $30.71 | 0.238 | 1.9% | $7.30 |
| Tainted Pact#33 | Showcase | $50.46 | 0.119 | 1.6% | $6.00 |
| Faithless Looting#101 | Borderless | $24.98 | 0.238 | 1.5% | $5.94 |
| Natural Order#117 | Borderless | $49.92 | 0.119 | 1.5% | $5.93 |
| Time Warp#85 | Borderless | $43.90 | 0.119 | 1.4% | $5.22 |
| Lightning Bolt#105 | Borderless | $19.75 | 0.238 | 1.2% | $4.69 |
| Dark Ritual#26 | Showcase | $18.06 | 0.238 | 1.1% | $4.29 |
| Natural Order#54 | Showcase | $32.95 | 0.119 | 1.0% | $3.92 |
| Ephemerate#5 | Showcase | $16.00 | 0.238 | 1.0% | $3.80 |
| Chaos Warp#99 | Borderless | $28.93 | 0.119 | 0.9% | $3.44 |
| Swords to Plowshares#10 | Showcase | $14.00 | 0.238 | 0.9% | $3.33 |
| Approach of the Second Sun#64 | Borderless | $27.83 | 0.119 | 0.9% | $3.31 |
| Wandering Archaic // Explore the Vastlands#286 | Extended art | $12.60 | 0.229 | 0.7% | $2.88 |
| Stinging Study#371 | Extended art | $17.28 | 0.160 | 0.7% | $2.76 |
| Sign in Blood#95 | Borderless | $11.48 | 0.238 | 0.7% | $2.73 |
| Time Warp#22 | Showcase | $22.67 | 0.119 | 0.7% | $2.69 |
| Weather the Storm#121 | Borderless | $10.99 | 0.238 | 0.7% | $2.61 |
| Growth Spiral#124 | Borderless | $10.33 | 0.238 | 0.6% | $2.46 |
| Counterspell#15 | Showcase | $10.00 | 0.238 | 0.6% | $2.38 |
| Witch's Clinic#407 | Extended art | $14.04 | 0.160 | 0.6% | $2.25 |
| Channel#113 | Borderless | $18.57 | 0.119 | 0.6% | $2.21 |
| Crux of Fate#88 | Borderless | $18.40 | 0.119 | 0.6% | $2.19 |
| Sedgemoor Witch#306 | Extended art | $9.53 | 0.229 | 0.6% | $2.18 |
| Spawning Kraken#360 | Extended art | $13.50 | 0.160 | 0.6% | $2.16 |
| Lightning Helix#125 | Borderless | $8.93 | 0.238 | 0.6% | $2.12 |