Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($363) is $51.31 above a typical box ($312) — 14%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
89%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
11%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 66th percentile — 66% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Strixhaven: School of Mages collector boosterbox TCG low $625, expected value $363, median box $312, 11% break-even, −42% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$10.75 (-2.9%) · Box −$0.01 (-0.0%) over 3m · ROI −1.7%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($52.08 vs $56.24 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −42% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $3,750 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Demonic Tutor, vs $480 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 108.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 29.15 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 21.94 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 20.91 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference