THB·Released Jan 24, 2020·12 packs / box · 14 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Theros Beyond Death

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$350

$29.17 / pack

Expected value

$146

$12.15 / pack

Net EV per box

−$204

Return on a box

−58.3%

Chance to break even

0.1%

Boxes for 95% one win

3941

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Shadowspear

Extended art

Single price: $82.66
Share of box EV: 17.0%
Pull any copy: 1 in 4 (26.0% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 2 boxes ($700)

Chasing Shadowspear by cracking boxes means spending about $700for a 50/50 shot — vs $82.66 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	146.20 cards	100.0%	Every time
Extended art	15.49 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Showcase	5.58 cards	99.6%	1 in 2
Borderless	0.72 cards	51.4%	1 in 2

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −58%
Net EV per box: −$204
Chance to break even: 0%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$350Box price

$91.01Floor (10%)

$140Typical

$146Average (EV)

$210Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $91.01
Typical: $140
Average (EV): $146
Lucky (90%): $210

The average box ($146) is $6.17 above a typical box ($140) — 4%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $350
Standalone pack listing: $25.99
Implied pack (box / packs): $29.17
EV per pack: $12.15; $146 / box
Return opening box: −58%
Return buying packs at listing: −53%

Standalone packs list at $25.99 vs $29.17 implied from the box. Packs look cheaper per slot, but EV is still $12.15/pack (−53% return either way).

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$146	$146(+$0.27)
Variance	2222	2233(+0.5%)
Std deviation	$47.14	$47.25

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $82.66
Pull any copy: 1 in 4 (26.0% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 2
Cost of those boxes: $700
Boxes for 95% chance: 9
Cost at 95%: $3,150

You'd spend about $700 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Shadowspear, vs $82.66 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $350

EV $146

Median $140

$0$93$187$280$373$467$560

Distribution of total card value per box across 28-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 0.1%
P(box ≥ expected value): 44.7%
Typical box (median): $140
Average box (EV): $146
Unlucky box (10th pct): $91.01
Lucky box (90th pct): $210
God box (99th pct): $282

Roughly 0% of boxes return more than the $350 you paid. You'd need to open about 3941 boxes (~$1,379,350) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $140) is $6.17 below the $146 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $146 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$52.7236%

Rm Extended

$39.7327%

Foil Basicfoil

$26.1618%

Showcase

$12.929%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$5.594%

Ancillary

$5.284%

Foil Common Or Basicfoil

$3.462%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $146 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Shadowspear#345	Extended art	$82.66	0.301	17.0%	$24.86
Thassa's Oracle#308	Extended art	$55.54	0.301	11.5%	$16.71
Nyxbloom Ancient#330	Extended art	$61.49	0.150	6.3%	$9.25
Thassa, Deep-Dwelling#261	Showcase	$33.75	0.241	5.6%	$8.13
Mountain#253	—	$1.41	5.355	5.2%	$7.55
Underworld Breach#324	Extended art	$24.51	0.301	5.1%	$7.37
Setessan Champion#331	Extended art	$22.00	0.301	4.5%	$6.62
Forest#254	—	$1.20	5.355	4.4%	$6.43
Heliod, Sun-Crowned#259	Showcase	$25.00	0.241	4.1%	$6.02
Shadowspear#236	—	$40.95	0.136	3.8%	$5.55
Swamp#252	—	$1.00	5.355	3.7%	$5.35
Plains#250	—	$0.99	5.355	3.6%	$5.30
Dryad of the Ilysian Grove#326	Extended art	$17.50	0.301	3.6%	$5.26
Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath#343	Extended art	$34.19	0.150	3.5%	$5.14
Idyllic Tutor#301	Extended art	$16.03	0.301	3.3%	$4.82
Nyx Lotus#344	Extended art	$15.77	0.301	3.3%	$4.74
Island#251	—	$0.85	5.355	3.1%	$4.55
Serpent of Yawning Depths#291	—	$7.49	0.471	2.4%	$3.52
Heliod's Intervention#300	Extended art	$10.25	0.301	2.1%	$3.08
Archon of Sun's Grace#298	Extended art	$10.24	0.301	2.1%	$3.08
Thassa's Oracle#73	—	$21.00	0.136	2.0%	$2.85
Arasta of the Endless Web#325	Extended art	$7.89	0.301	1.6%	$2.37
Thassa, Deep-Dwelling#71	—	$31.69	0.068	1.5%	$2.15
Ox of Agonas#318	Extended art	$12.72	0.150	1.3%	$1.91
Kiora Bests the Sea God#52	—	$6.77	0.275	1.3%	$1.86
Nyxbloom Ancient#190	—	$27.00	0.068	1.3%	$1.83
Wavebreak Hippocamp#310	Extended art	$5.69	0.301	1.2%	$1.71
Destiny Spinner#168	—	$3.50	0.465	1.1%	$1.63
Underworld Breach#161	—	$11.25	0.136	1.0%	$1.53
Thryx, the Sudden Storm#309	Extended art	$5.00	0.301	1.0%	$1.50
Idyllic Tutor#24	—	$11.02	0.136	1.0%	$1.49
Heliod, Sun-Crowned#18	—	$21.99	0.068	1.0%	$1.49
Nylea, Keen-Eyed#266	Showcase	$6.05	0.241	1.0%	$1.46
Woe Strider#317	Extended art	$4.81	0.301	1.0%	$1.45
Dream Trawler#336	Extended art	$4.77	0.301	1.0%	$1.43