The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth
Chase card spotlight
Sol Ring
- Single price
- $1,483
- Share of box EV
- 20.1%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 8 (13.1% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 5 boxes ($8,850)
Chasing Sol Ring by cracking boxes means spending about $8,850for a 50/50 shot — vs $1,483 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 97.35 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 34.87 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 25.45 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 22.22 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Surge foil | 0.10 cards | 9.2% | 1 in 11 |
| Serialized | 0.009 cards | 0.9% | 1 in 110 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −41%
- Net EV per box
- −$732
- Chance to break even
- 15%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $388
- Typical
- $834
- Average (EV)
- $1,038
- Lucky (90%)
- $2,056
The average box ($1,038) is $204 above a typical box ($834) — 20%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $1,770
- Standalone pack listing
- $160
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $148
- EV per pack
- $86.51
- $1,038 / box
- Return opening box
- −41%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −46%
The box is the better deal per pack ($148 vs $160 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −41% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $1,038 | $1,035(-$2.91) |
| Variance | 542526 | 543562(+0.2%) |
| Std deviation | $737 | $737 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $1,483
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 8 (13.1% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 5
- Cost of those boxes
- $8,850
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 20
- Cost at 95%
- $35,400
You'd spend about $8,850 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Sol Ring, vs $1,483 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 29-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 14.9%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 34.3%
- Typical box (median)
- $834
- Average box (EV)
- $1,035
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $388
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $2,056
- God box (99th pct)
- $3,618
Roughly 15% of boxes return more than the $1,770 you paid. You'd need to open about 19 boxes (~$33,630) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $834) is $204 below the $1,038 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $1,038 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $1,038 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sol Ring#408 | — | $1,483 | 0.141 | 20.1% | $209 |
| Sol Ring#409 | — | $478 | 0.328 | 15.1% | $157 |
| Sol Ring#410 | — | $362 | 0.422 | 14.7% | $153 |
| Ancient Tomb#357 | Borderless | $145 | 0.197 | 2.8% | $28.61 |
| Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth#375 | Borderless | $120 | 0.197 | 2.3% | $23.61 |
| The One Ring#380 | Extended art | $110 | 0.185 | 2.0% | $20.33 |
| The Great Henge#348 | Borderless | $84.83 | 0.197 | 1.6% | $16.69 |
| The Ozolith#351 | Borderless | $80.49 | 0.197 | 1.5% | $15.83 |
| Orcish Bowmasters#433 | Borderless | $49.99 | 0.316 | 1.5% | $15.79 |
| Cavern of Souls#362 | Borderless | $71.99 | 0.197 | 1.4% | $14.16 |
| Shadowspear#353 | Borderless | $68.29 | 0.197 | 1.3% | $13.43 |
| The One Ring#451 | Borderless | $82.49 | 0.158 | 1.3% | $13.03 |
| Cabal Coffers#360 | Borderless | $54.79 | 0.197 | 1.0% | $10.78 |
| The One Ring#246 | — | $123 | 0.086 | 1.0% | $10.54 |
| Gemstone Caverns#364 | Borderless | $53.25 | 0.197 | 1.0% | $10.48 |
| Sol Ring#410z | Serialized | $2,380 | 4.22e-3 | 1.0% | $10.05 |
| Sol Ring#409z | Serialized | $3,000 | 3.28e-3 | 0.9% | $9.85 |
| Minamo, School at Water's Edge#369 | Borderless | $49.60 | 0.197 | 0.9% | $9.76 |
| Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth#377 | Borderless | $48.65 | 0.197 | 0.9% | $9.57 |
| Mithril Coat#379 | Extended art | $25.00 | 0.369 | 0.9% | $9.23 |
| Delighted Halfling#402 | Borderless | $29.00 | 0.316 | 0.9% | $9.16 |
| Orcish Bowmasters#103 | — | $53.00 | 0.171 | 0.9% | $9.09 |
| Delighted Halfling#363 | Extended art | $24.00 | 0.369 | 0.9% | $8.86 |
| Sol Ring#408z | Serialized | $6,174 | 1.41e-3 | 0.8% | $8.69 |
| Sauron, the Dark Lord#329 | Showcase | $24.00 | 0.280 | 0.6% | $6.72 |
| Bojuka Bog#358 | Borderless | $30.60 | 0.197 | 0.6% | $6.02 |
| Nazgûl#335 | — | $35.48 | 0.151 | 0.5% | $5.35 |
| Wasteland#376 | Borderless | $25.97 | 0.197 | 0.5% | $5.11 |
| Nazgûl#334 | — | $32.57 | 0.151 | 0.5% | $4.91 |
| Last March of the Ents#418 | Borderless | $30.00 | 0.158 | 0.5% | $4.74 |
| Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff#370 | Extended art | $12.54 | 0.369 | 0.4% | $4.63 |
| Mithril Coat#245 | — | $27.00 | 0.171 | 0.4% | $4.63 |
| Shinka, the Bloodsoaked Keep#374 | Borderless | $23.47 | 0.197 | 0.4% | $4.62 |
| Delighted Halfling#158 | — | $26.10 | 0.171 | 0.4% | $4.47 |
| Mount Doom#343 | Borderless | $11.64 | 0.378 | 0.4% | $4.41 |