Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($569) is $88.06 above a typical box ($481) — 15%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 68th percentile — 68% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth collector boosterbox TCG low $2,088, expected value $569, median box $481, 2% break-even, −73% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV −$510 (-47.3%) · Box −$797 (-27.6%) over 3m · ROI −10.2%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($174 vs $195 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −73% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $6,264 opening boxes for a coin-flip at The One Ring, vs $101 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 97.35 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 34.36 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 25.22 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 22.97 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Surge foil | 0.096 cards | 9.2% | 1 in 11 |
| Serialized | 0.0078 cards | 0.8% | 1 in 130 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference