BLB·Released Aug 2, 2024·12 packs / box · 15 cards / pack·Prices refreshes every 6 hours

Bloomburrow

Verdict

Money pit

Box price (TCG low)

$950

$79.17 / pack

Expected value

$352

$29.29 / pack

Net EV per box

−$598

Return on a box

−63.0%

Chance to break even

3.4%

Boxes for 95% one win

to break even once

Chase card spotlight

Ms. Bumbleflower

Raised foil

Single price: $1,144
Share of box EV: 4.4%
Pull any copy: 1 in 75 (1.3% / box)
Coin-flip chase: 52 boxes ($49,400)

Chasing Ms. Bumbleflower by cracking boxes means spending about $49,400for a 50/50 shot — vs $1,144 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.

Open it up

Crack a simulated pack or full box, drawn from this set's corrected collation. Share a link to reproduce any opening. Cards are valued at the lowest real market price (TCGplayer or Cardmarket).

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Chase pull rates

Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.

Treatment	Expected / box	P(≥1 / box)	1 in N boxes
Standard	132.00 cards	100.0%	Every time
Showcase	17.83 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Extended art	16.50 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Borderless	13.23 cards	100.0%	1 in 2
Raised foil	0.44 cards	35.7%	1 in 3

Your store's price

TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.

Box price

At this price

Keep sealed

Return if cracked: −63%
Net EV per box: −$598
Chance to break even: 3%

What you actually get

Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.

$950Box price

$172Floor (10%)

$282Typical

$352Average (EV)

$622Lucky (90%)

Floor (10%): $172
Typical: $282
Average (EV): $352
Lucky (90%): $622

The average box ($352) is $69.60 above a typical box ($282) — 20%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.

Pack vs box economics

Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.

Box price: $950
Standalone pack listing: $89.99
Implied pack (box / packs): $79.17
EV per pack: $29.29; $352 / box
Return opening box: −63%
Return buying packs at listing: −67%

The box is the better deal per pack ($79.17 vs $89.99 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −63% return.

Theoretical vs simulated

Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.

Statistic	Theoretical	Simulated
Expected value	$352	$353(+$1.44)
Variance	54045	54866(+1.5%)
Std deviation	$232	$234

Buy the single instead?

Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.

Chase card

Single price: $1,144
Pull any copy: 1 in 75 (1.3% / box)
Boxes for 50% chance: 52
Cost of those boxes: $49,400
Boxes for 95% chance: 223
Cost at 95%: $211,850

You'd spend about $49,400 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ms. Bumbleflower, vs $1,144 to buy it now.

Box value distribution

25,000 simulated boxes

profit zone

Box $950

EV $352

Median $282

$0$258$517$775$1,033$1,292$1,550

Distribution of total card value per box across 31-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.

The odds

P(box ≥ box price): 3.4%
P(box ≥ expected value): 32.4%
Typical box (median): $282
Average box (EV): $353
Unlucky box (10th pct): $172
Lucky box (90th pct): $622
God box (99th pct): $1,373

Roughly 3% of boxes return more than the $950 you paid. You'd need to open about 87 boxes (~$82,650) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $282) is $69.60 below the $352 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.

Where a box's value comes from

Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $352 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.

Foil Showcase Rare/Mythicfoil

$20759%

Showcase Rare/Mythic

$94.7827%

Foil Rare/Mythicfoil

$23.737%

Commander Card

$20.426%

Foil Uncommonfoil

$4.161%

Foil Landfoil

$0.920%

Foil Commanderfoil

$0.620%

Top cards driving box EV

Individual card contributions to the $352 expected box value (pull rate times current price).

Card	Treatment	Price	Pulls/box	EV share	$/box
Ms. Bumbleflower#103	Raised foil	$1,144	0.013	4.4%	$15.32
Chatterfang, Squirrel General#82	Borderless	$60.86	0.232	4.0%	$14.09
Maha, Its Feathers Night#289	Borderless	$54.59	0.232	3.6%	$12.64
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods#342	Borderless	$108	0.116	3.6%	$12.50
Marrow-Gnawer#79	Borderless	$26.20	0.463	3.5%	$12.13
Three Tree City#339	Borderless	$92.85	0.116	3.1%	$10.75
Baylen, the Haymaker#345	Raised foil	$395	0.027	3.0%	$10.57
Three Tree City#340	Borderless	$86.00	0.116	2.8%	$9.96
Three Tree City#338	Borderless	$82.84	0.116	2.7%	$9.59
Chatterfang, Squirrel General#95	Raised foil	$715	0.013	2.7%	$9.57
Valley Floodcaller#308	Showcase	$19.51	0.463	2.6%	$9.03
Mockingbird#305	Showcase	$19.48	0.463	2.6%	$9.02
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods#343	Raised foil	$673	0.013	2.6%	$9.01
Birds of Paradise#81	Borderless	$17.62	0.463	2.3%	$8.16
Three Tree City#337	Borderless	$69.57	0.116	2.3%	$8.05
Dawn's Truce#295	Showcase	$16.00	0.463	2.1%	$7.41
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods#293	Borderless	$63.93	0.116	2.1%	$7.40
Ygra, Eater of All#294	Borderless	$31.33	0.232	2.1%	$7.25
Bello, Bard of the Brambles#101	Raised foil	$520	0.013	2.0%	$6.96
Teferi, Time Raveler#92	Borderless	$14.00	0.463	1.8%	$6.48
Baleful Strix#86	Borderless	$13.77	0.463	1.8%	$6.38
Camellia, the Seedmiser#346	Raised foil	$225	0.027	1.7%	$6.03
Hazel of the Rootbloom#102	Raised foil	$442	0.013	1.7%	$5.92
Vren, the Relentless#354	Raised foil	$216	0.027	1.6%	$5.79
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician#87	Borderless	$12.00	0.463	1.6%	$5.56
Jace, the Mind Sculptor#93	Raised foil	$399	0.013	1.5%	$5.34
Jace, the Mind Sculptor#75	Borderless	$22.90	0.232	1.5%	$5.30
Rottenmouth Viper#290	Borderless	$21.99	0.232	1.4%	$5.09
Ral, Crackling Wit#353	Raised foil	$357	0.013	1.4%	$4.78
Alania, Divergent Storm#344	Raised foil	$173	0.027	1.3%	$4.63
Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni#77	Borderless	$9.62	0.463	1.3%	$4.45
Gev, Scaled Scorch#349	Raised foil	$161	0.027	1.2%	$4.31
Helga, Skittish Seer#332	Showcase	$17.99	0.232	1.2%	$4.16
Mabel, Heir to Cragflame#351	Raised foil	$151	0.027	1.1%	$4.04
Ral, Crackling Wit#341	Borderless	$17.00	0.232	1.1%	$3.94