Simulated from published collation. Most boxes land below average; chase cards pull the mean up.
The average box ($381) is $81.14 above a typical box ($300) — 21%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Below box cost
98%
lose money on resale
At or above cost
2%
break even or profit
Monte Carlo distribution of total card value per box. Green bars are at or above sealed cost; rose bars are below. EV lands at the 67th percentile — 67% of simulated boxes yield less than the average.
Bloomburrow collector boosterbox TCG low $1,295, expected value $381, median box $300, 2% break-even, −71% vs sealed. Methodology · JSON
Daily snapshots after release · box EV vs sealed price
EV +$31.12 (8.9%) · Box +$345 (36.3%) over 3m · ROI −7.4%
Sealed vs singles and pack vs box economics for this set.
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
The box is the better deal per pack ($108 vs $126 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −71% return.
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
You'd spend about $67,341 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Ms. Bumbleflower, vs $1,417 to buy it now.
Treatment odds from corrected collation. Tap a row for card-level detail.
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 132.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 17.83 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Extended art | 16.50 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Borderless | 13.23 cards | 100.0% | 1 in 2 |
| Raised foil | 0.442 cards | 35.7% | 1 in 3 |
All chase pull rates · Tap a treatment for odds and top cards in this set.
Reference