Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
Chase card spotlight
Boseiju, Who Endures
Borderless
- Single price
- $68.22
- Share of box EV
- 11.9%
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (34.1% / box)
- Coin-flip chase
- 2 boxes ($1,000)
Chasing Boseiju, Who Endures by cracking boxes means spending about $1,000for a 50/50 shot — vs $68.22 to buy the single. Keep it sealed; buy the card.
Chase pull rates
Expected cards per box and the odds of pulling at least one, by Booster Fun treatment. “1 in N” is per box, not a percentage.
| Treatment | Expected / box | P(≥1 / box) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | 84.00 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Showcase | 63.89 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Extended art | 27.83 cards | 100.0% | Every time |
| Borderless | 4.20 cards | 98.5% | 1 in 2 |
| Neon ink | 0.08 cards | 7.7% | 1 in 13 |
Your store's price
TCGplayer low isn't what everyone pays. Plug in what your LGS or an online seller actually charges.
- Return if cracked
- −52%
- Net EV per box
- −$261
- Chance to break even
- 1%
What you actually get
Most boxes land well below the average. Chase cards pull the mean up — your typical box is the median, not the EV.
- Floor (10%)
- $141
- Typical
- $224
- Average (EV)
- $239
- Lucky (90%)
- $351
The average box ($239) is $15.28 above a typical box ($224) — 6%of the EV comes from above-median outcomes you probably won't see.
Pack vs box economics
Should you buy a sealed box or individual packs? EV per pack is the same either way; the question is what you pay per pack.
- Box price
- $500
- Standalone pack listing
- $42.32
- Implied pack (box / packs)
- $41.67
- EV per pack
- $19.93
- $239 / box
- Return opening box
- −52%
- Return buying packs at listing
- −53%
The box is the better deal per pack ($41.67 vs $42.32 listing). Still a losing bet on average at −52% return.
Theoretical vs simulated
Closed-form math from collation weights (zero sampling noise) compared to 25,000 Monte Carlo box openings.
| Statistic | Theoretical | Simulated |
|---|---|---|
| Expected value | $239 | $239(-$0.48) |
| Variance | 8134 | 7932(-2.5%) |
| Std deviation | $90.19 | $89.06 |
Buy the single instead?
Compare chasing a card by opening boxes vs buying it outright at today's price.
- Single price
- $68.22
- Pull any copy
- 1 in 3 (34.1% / box)
- Boxes for 50% chance
- 2
- Cost of those boxes
- $1,000
- Boxes for 95% chance
- 6
- Cost at 95%
- $3,000
You'd spend about $1,000 opening boxes for a coin-flip at Boseiju, Who Endures, vs $68.22 to buy it now.
Box value distribution
25,000 simulated boxesDistribution of total card value per box across 32-bucket Monte Carlo simulation. Bars right of the box price are profitable openings.
The odds
- P(box ≥ box price)
- 1.1%
- P(box ≥ expected value)
- 42.9%
- Typical box (median)
- $224
- Average box (EV)
- $239
- Unlucky box (10th pct)
- $141
- Lucky box (90th pct)
- $351
- God box (99th pct)
- $513
Roughly 1% of boxes return more than the $500 you paid. You'd need to open about 266 boxes (~$132,997) for a 95% chance that even one of them breaks even. A typical box (median $224) is $15.28 below the $239 average - most of the EV lives in chase cards you probably won't pull.
Where a box's value comes from
Expected contribution of each booster slot to the $239 box EV. Cards valued under $0.25are treated as $0 bulk, since penny commons and foils can't realistically be sold at their listed price.
Top cards driving box EV
Individual card contributions to the $239 expected box value (pull rate times current price).
| Card | Treatment | Price | Pulls/box | EV share | $/box |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boseiju, Who Endures#412 | Borderless | $68.22 | 0.417 | 11.9% | $28.42 |
| Otawara, Soaring City#414 | Borderless | $37.05 | 0.417 | 6.5% | $15.43 |
| Boseiju, Who Endures#501 | Extended art | $48.68 | 0.240 | 4.9% | $11.69 |
| Boseiju, Who Endures#266 | — | $49.78 | 0.176 | 3.7% | $8.78 |
| Otawara, Soaring City#503 | Extended art | $28.99 | 0.240 | 2.9% | $6.96 |
| Swamp#297 | — | $4.84 | 1.200 | 2.4% | $5.81 |
| Otawara, Soaring City#271 | — | $30.00 | 0.176 | 2.2% | $5.29 |
| Takenuma, Abandoned Mire#416 | Borderless | $12.54 | 0.417 | 2.2% | $5.22 |
| Swamp#298 | — | $3.50 | 1.200 | 1.8% | $4.20 |
| Light-Paws, Emperor's Voice#367 | Showcase | $15.94 | 0.260 | 1.7% | $4.14 |
| Plains#293 | — | $3.20 | 1.200 | 1.6% | $3.84 |
| The Wandering Emperor#316 | Showcase | $42.00 | 0.086 | 1.5% | $3.60 |
| Kodama of the West Tree#392 | Showcase | $27.02 | 0.130 | 1.5% | $3.51 |
| The Wandering Emperor#418 | Showcase | $85.12 | 0.040 | 1.4% | $3.43 |
| Island#296 | — | $2.83 | 1.200 | 1.4% | $3.40 |
| Farewell#365 | Showcase | $13.00 | 0.260 | 1.4% | $3.38 |
| The Reality Chip#374 | Showcase | $12.07 | 0.260 | 1.3% | $3.13 |
| Hidetsugu, Devouring Chaos#429 | Neon ink | $492 | 6.20e-3 | 1.3% | $3.05 |
| Kodama of the West Tree#477 | Extended art | $22.76 | 0.120 | 1.1% | $2.73 |
| Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire#413 | Borderless | $6.00 | 0.417 | 1.0% | $2.50 |
| Mountain#299 | — | $2.00 | 1.200 | 1.0% | $2.40 |
| Forest#302 | — | $2.00 | 1.200 | 1.0% | $2.40 |
| Island#295 | — | $1.99 | 1.200 | 1.0% | $2.39 |
| Plains#294 | — | $1.98 | 1.200 | 1.0% | $2.38 |
| Kodama of the West Tree#423 | Showcase | $56.88 | 0.040 | 1.0% | $2.29 |
| Go-Shintai of Life's Origin#66 | Extended art | $13.00 | 0.171 | 0.9% | $2.23 |
| Farewell#417 | Showcase | $26.87 | 0.081 | 0.9% | $2.16 |
| Takenuma, Abandoned Mire#505 | Extended art | $9.00 | 0.240 | 0.9% | $2.16 |
| Forest#301 | — | $1.80 | 1.200 | 0.9% | $2.16 |
| Fable of the Mirror-Breaker // Reflection of Kiki-Jiki#357 | Showcase | $7.85 | 0.260 | 0.9% | $2.04 |
| Jin-Gitaxias, Progress Tyrant#371 | Showcase | $27.13 | 0.072 | 0.8% | $1.95 |
| Isshin, Two Heavens as One#328 | Showcase | $7.50 | 0.260 | 0.8% | $1.95 |
| Imposter Mech#49 | Extended art | $5.49 | 0.343 | 0.8% | $1.88 |
| Hidetsugu, Devouring Chaos#430 | Neon ink | $74.99 | 0.025 | 0.8% | $1.86 |
| Kodama of the West Tree#199 | — | $20.25 | 0.088 | 0.7% | $1.79 |