In The Hobbit collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 0.299 surge foil cards per box - roughly 0.025 per pack. That works out to a 25.8% chance of pulling at least one surge foil card per box, or about 1 in 4 for your first hit. The chase end is often The One Ring (about 1 in 27 for that specific printing).
Rainbow surge-foil treatment on chase slots. Pull rates vary by set; often split across a dedicated slot and foil booster-fun slots.
Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.
| Card | Price | Expected / box | P(≥1) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
The One Ring #84 · mythic | $2,250 | 0.037 | 3.7% | 1 in 27 |
The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart #283 · mythic | $1,199 | 0.037 | 3.7% | 1 in 27 |
Tom Bombadil #78 · mythic | $900 | 0.037 | 3.7% | 1 in 27 |
The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart #270 · mythic | $701 | 0.037 | 3.7% | 1 in 27 |
Beorn the Fierce #266 · mythic | $600 | 0.037 | 3.7% | 1 in 27 |
Sauron, the Dark Lord #76 · mythic | $600 | 0.037 | 3.7% | 1 in 27 |
My Precious // Allure of Power #271 · rare | $250 | 0.075 | 7.2% | 1 in 14 |