The Hobbit: Headliner pull rate
In The Hobbit collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 0.0020 headliner cards per box - roughly 0.0002 per pack. That works out to a 0.2% chance of pulling at least one headliner card per box, or about 1 in 500 for your first hit. The chase end is often Smaug the Magnificent (about 1 in 500 for that specific printing).
Premium headliner art (often alternate-art chase cards) at low pull rates.
Expected / box
0.0020
cards
P(≥1 per box)
0.2%
1 in N boxes
1 in 500
Top Headliner cards in HOB
Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.
| Card | Price | Expected / box | P(≥1) | 1 in N boxes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Smaug the Magnificent #249 · mythic | $0.00 | 0.0020 | 0.2% | 1 in 500 |