The Hobbit: Headliner pull rate

In The Hobbit collector boosters (12 packs per box), you can expect about 0.0020 headliner cards per box - roughly 0.0002 per pack. That works out to a 0.2% chance of pulling at least one headliner card per box, or about 1 in 500 for your first hit. The chase end is often Smaug the Magnificent (about 1 in 500 for that specific printing).

Premium headliner art (often alternate-art chase cards) at low pull rates.

Expected / box
0.0020
cards
P(≥1 per box)
0.2%
1 in N boxes
1 in 500

Top Headliner cards in HOB

Per-printing expected pulls and odds of at least one per box.

CardPriceExpected / boxP(≥1)1 in N boxes
Smaug the Magnificent
#249 · mythic
$0.000.00200.2%1 in 500